Articles | Volume 20, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jan 2026
Research article |
| 20 Jan 2026
| 20 Jan 2026
The observed evolution of Arctic amplification over the past 45 years
Mark C. Serreze
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Elizabeth Cassano
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Alex Crawford
Centre for Earth Observation Science, Department of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
John J. Cassano
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Chen Zhang
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
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We studied how rain and snow are changing across the Arctic as the climate warms. Using weather data from land, ocean, and a global climate dataset, we found that more of the Arctic’s precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow, especially in summer and in the Atlantic region. These changes are not always due to more total precipitation, but rather less snowfall. This shift could affect Arctic ecosystems, infrastructure, and future climate patterns.
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Klaus Dethloff, Wieslaw Maslowski, Stefan Hendricks, Younjoo J. Lee, Helge F. Goessling, Thomas Krumpen, Christian Haas, Dörthe Handorf, Robert Ricker, Vladimir Bessonov, John J. Cassano, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Robert Osinski, Markus Rex, Annette Rinke, Julia Sokolova, and Anja Sommerfeld
The Cryosphere, 16, 981–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-981-2022, 2022
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Sea ice thickness anomalies during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) winter in January, February and March 2020 were simulated with the coupled Regional Arctic climate System Model (RASM) and compared with CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite data. Hindcast and ensemble simulations indicate that the sea ice anomalies are driven by nonlinear interactions between ice growth processes and wind-driven sea-ice transports, with dynamics playing a dominant role.
Igor A. Dmitrenko, Denis L. Volkov, Tricia A. Stadnyk, Andrew Tefs, David G. Babb, Sergey A. Kirillov, Alex Crawford, Kevin Sydor, and David G. Barber
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Significant trends of sea ice in Hudson Bay have led to a considerable increase in shipping activity. Therefore, understanding sea level variability is an urgent issue crucial for safe navigation and coastal infrastructure. Using the sea level, atmospheric and river discharge data, we assess environmental factors impacting variability of sea level at Churchill. We find that it is dominated by wind forcing, with the seasonal cycle generated by the seasonal cycle in atmospheric circulation.
John J. Cassano, Melissa A. Nigro, Mark W. Seefeldt, Marwan Katurji, Kelly Guinn, Guy Williams, and Alice DuVivier
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Between January 2012 and June 2017, a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS), or drone, known as the Small Unmanned Meteorological Observer (SUMO), was used to observe the lowest 1000 m of the Antarctic atmosphere. During six Antarctic field campaigns, 116 SUMO flights were completed. These flights took place during all seasons over both permanent ice and ice-free locations on the Antarctic continent and over sea ice in the western Ross Sea providing unique observations of the Antarctic atmosphere.
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Short summary
The outsized warming of the Arctic relative to the globe as a whole (Arctic Amplification, AA) is largest in in autumn and winter, consistent with large transfers of energy from growing areas of open water. Impacts of variable atmospheric circulation are also prominent. AA is small in summer due to the melting sea ice cover. Warming penetrates higher into the atmosphere in autumn compared to winter, but trends towards weaker stability could enable deeper heating as AA further evolves.
The outsized warming of the Arctic relative to the globe as a whole (Arctic Amplification, AA)...
