The observed evolution of Arctic amplification over the past 45 years

Serreze, Mark C.; Cassano, Elizabeth; Crawford, Alex; Cassano, John J.; Zhang, Chen

doi:10.5194/tc-20-411-2026

Articles | Volume 20, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 1

Research article

|

20 Jan 2026

Research article |

| 20 Jan 2026

The observed evolution of Arctic amplification over the past 45 years

Mark C. Serreze, Elizabeth Cassano, Alex Crawford, John J. Cassano, and Chen Zhang

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026-supplement

Data sets

ERA5 Reanalysis (0.25 Degree Latitude-Longitude Grid) ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) https://doi.org/10.5065/BH6N-5N20

Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS (NSIDC-0079, Version 4) J. C. Comiso https://doi.org/10.5067/X5LG68MH013O

Short summary

The outsized warming of the Arctic relative to the globe as a whole (Arctic Amplification, AA) is largest in in autumn and winter, consistent with large transfers of energy from growing areas of open water. Impacts of variable atmospheric circulation are also prominent. AA is small in summer due to the melting sea ice cover. Warming penetrates higher into the atmosphere in autumn compared to winter, but trends towards weaker stability could enable deeper heating as AA further evolves.