The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3643-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3643-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 6
Research article
 | 
26 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 26 Jun 2026

Winter Arctic polynyas in CMIP6 models

Céline Heuzé, Jonathan W. Rheinlænder, Tian Tian, and Carmen Hau Man Wong

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Short summary
When the sea ice opens in winter in so-called “polynyas”, the entire climate system is affected from deep water ventilation to cloud formation, along with the ecosystem. In observations, winter Arctic polynyas have been increasing along with climate change. We here show that we cannot predict their future using global climate models as they do not represent winter Arctic polynyas correctly: they open over too large areas but too rarely, and for the wrong reason.
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