Changes in 1958–2019 Greenland surface mass balance are attributable to both greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

Kuo, Yan-Ning; Culberg, Riley; Lehner, Flavio

doi:10.5194/tc-20-2317-2026

Articles | Volume 20, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2317-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Improving the contribution of the land cryosphere to sea level...

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2317-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 4

Research article

|

23 Apr 2026

Research article |

| 23 Apr 2026

Changes in 1958–2019 Greenland surface mass balance are attributable to both greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols

Yan-Ning Kuo, Riley Culberg, and Flavio Lehner

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2317-2026-supplement

Data sets

Data supplement of "The causes of sea-level rise since 1900" T. Frederikse et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3862995

Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios B. Noël et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7100706

Short summary

We attribute historical Greenland surface mass balance changes to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols through their impacts on runoff changes. Greenhouse gases induce runoff increase by long-term warming, and anthropogenic aerosols induce runoff by a decadal phase change in circulation pattern of Greenland blocking. We also highlight runoff responses in a climate model are state dependent, potentially contributing to the lower signal-to-noise ratio attributing to anthropogenic aerosols.