Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 12 Feb 2026
| 12 Feb 2026
Large regional differences in Antarctic ice shelf mass loss from Southern Ocean warming and meltwater feedbacks
Morven Muilwijk
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
Tore Hattermann
Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
Rebecca L. Beadling
Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Neil C. Swart
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Aleksi Nummelin
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Chuncheng Guo
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
David M. Chandler
NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Petra M. Langebroek
NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Shenjie Zhou
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Pierre Dutrieux
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Jia-Jia Chen
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA
Christopher Danek
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Matthew H. England
Centre for Marine Science and Innovation (CMSI), University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
ARC Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Stephen M. Griffies
Princeton University Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, NJ, USA
F. Alexander Haumann
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
André Jüling
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Ombeline Jouet
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Qian Li
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
Torge Martin
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
John Marshall
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
Andrew G. Pauling
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Ariaan Purich
School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, ARC Special Research Initiative for Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
Zihan Song
Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
Inga J. Smith
Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Max Thomas
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter, UK
Irene Trombini
Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, Bologna, Italy
Eveline C. van der Linden
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Xiaoqi Xu
Institute for Development and Programme Design, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Model code and software
The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) Initiative: scientific objectives and experimental design (https://sofiamip.github.io/data-access.html) N. C. Swart et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023
Short summary
Antarctic meltwater affects ocean stratification and temperature, which in turn influences the rate of ice shelf melting – a coupling missing in most climate models. We analyze a suite of climate models with added meltwater to explore this feedback in different regions. While meltwater generally enhances ocean warming and melt, in West Antarctica most models simulate coastal cooling, suggesting a negative feedback that could slow future ice loss there.
Antarctic meltwater affects ocean stratification and temperature, which in turn influences the...
