Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5959-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5959-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Nov 2025
Research article |
| 20 Nov 2025
| 20 Nov 2025
Permafrost sensitivity to soil hydro-thermodynamics in historical and scenario simulations with the MPI-ESM
Geosciences Institute, IGEO (CSIC-UCM), Madrid, Spain
Faculty of Physical Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), Madrid, Spain
Jesús Fidel González-Rouco
Geosciences Institute, IGEO (CSIC-UCM), Madrid, Spain
Nagore Meabe-Yanguas
Geosciences Institute, IGEO (CSIC-UCM), Madrid, Spain
Philipp de Vrese
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Norman Julius Steinert
CICERO – Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Johann Jungclaus
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Stephan Lorenz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
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Norman J. Steinert and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1711–1721, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025, 2025
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Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Isla R. Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5699–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, 2025
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
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Camilla Mathison, Eleanor J. Burke, Gregory Munday, Chris D. Jones, Chris J. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris Huntingford, Eszter Kovacs, Laila K. Gohar, Rebecca M. Varney, and Douglas McNeall
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1785–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025, 2025
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Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1189–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1189-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1189-2025, 2025
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Evelien J. C. van Dijk, Christoph C. Raible, Michael Sigl, Johann Jungclaus, and Heinz Wanner
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-79, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 547–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, 2024
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Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
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This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Thomas Schmid, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Cristina Vegas-Cañas, Norman Julius Steinert, Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Philipp de Vrese
SOIL, 10, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, 2024
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This work addresses air–ground temperature coupling and propagation into the subsurface in a mountainous area in central Spain using surface and subsurface data from six meteorological stations. Heat transfer of temperature changes at the ground surface occurs mainly by conduction controlled by thermal diffusivity of the subsurface, which varies with depth and time. A new methodology shows that near-surface diffusivity and soil moisture content changes with time are closely related.
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Jason E. Smerdon, and Félix García-Pereira
Clim. Past, 19, 2361–2387, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2361-2023, 2023
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Analyses of reconstructed data suggest that the precipitation and availability of water have evolved in a similar way during the Last Millennium in different regions of the world, including areas of North America, Europe, the Middle East, southern Asia, northern South America, East Africa and the Indo-Pacific. To confirm this link between distant regions and to understand the reasons behind it, the information from different reconstructed and simulated products has been compiled and analyzed.
Philipp de Vrese, Goran Georgievski, Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco, Dirk Notz, Tobias Stacke, Norman Julius Steinert, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023
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The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone. We used an adapted version of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to show that differences in the representation of the soil hydrology in permafrost-affected regions could help explain a large part of this inter-model spread and have pronounced impacts on important elements of Earth systems as far to the south as the tropics.
Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1975–1995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, 2023
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Evelien van Dijk, Ingar Mørkestøl Gundersen, Anna de Bode, Helge Høeg, Kjetil Loftsgarden, Frode Iversen, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 19, 357–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, 2023
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The mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years as characterized by great societal changes. Here, we study the effect of the volcanic double event in 536 CE and 540 CE on climate and society in southern Norway. The combined climate and growing degree day models and high-resolution pollen and archaeological records reveal that the northern and western sites are vulnerable to crop failure with possible abandonment of farms, whereas the southeastern site is more resilient.
Cathy Hohenegger, Peter Korn, Leonidas Linardakis, René Redler, Reiner Schnur, Panagiotis Adamidis, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Milad Behravesh, Martin Bergemann, Joachim Biercamp, Hendryk Bockelmann, Renate Brokopf, Nils Brüggemann, Lucas Casaroli, Fatemeh Chegini, George Datseris, Monika Esch, Geet George, Marco Giorgetta, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Thomas Jahns, Johann Jungclaus, Marcel Kern, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Tobias Kölling, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Clarissa Kroll, Junhong Lee, Thorsten Mauritsen, Carolin Mehlmann, Theresa Mieslinger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Laura Paccini, Angel Peinado, Divya Sri Praturi, Dian Putrasahan, Sebastian Rast, Thomas Riddick, Niklas Roeber, Hauke Schmidt, Uwe Schulzweida, Florian Schütte, Hans Segura, Radomyra Shevchenko, Vikram Singh, Mia Specht, Claudia Christine Stephan, Jin-Song von Storch, Raphaela Vogel, Christian Wengel, Marius Winkler, Florian Ziemen, Jochem Marotzke, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
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Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Jörg Schwinger, Ali Asaadi, Norman Julius Steinert, and Hanna Lee
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1641–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, 2022
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We test whether climate change can be partially reversed if CO2 is removed from the atmosphere to compensate for too large past and near-term emissions by using idealized model simulations of overshoot pathways. On a timescale of 100 years, we find a high degree of reversibility if the overshoot size remains small, and we do not find tipping points even for intense overshoots. We caution that current Earth system models are most likely not able to skilfully model tipping points in ecosystems.
Shih-Wei Fang, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, Kirstin Krüger, and Hauke Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1535–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, 2022
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The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. This study quantifies potential surface cooling from the solar and volcanic forcing in the early 19th century with large ensemble simulations, and identifies the regions that their impacts cannot be simply additive. The cooling perspective of Arctic amplification exists in both solar and post-volcano period with the albedo feedback as the main contribution.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Stephan Gruber, Almudena García-García, and J. Fidel González-Rouco
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7913–7932, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7913-2022, 2022
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Inversions of subsurface temperature profiles provide past long-term estimates of ground surface temperature histories and ground heat flux histories at timescales of decades to millennia. Theses estimates complement high-frequency proxy temperature reconstructions and are the basis for studying continental heat storage. We develop and release a new bootstrap method to derive meaningful confidence intervals for the average surface temperature and heat flux histories from any number of profiles.
Evelien van Dijk, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Claudia Timmreck, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 18, 1601–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, 2022
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A double volcanic eruption in 536 and 540 CE caused one of the coldest decades during the last 2000 years. We analyzed new climate model simulations from that period and found a cooling of up to 2°C and a sea-ice extent up to 200 km further south. Complex interactions between sea ice and ocean circulation lead to a reduction in the northward ocean heat transport, which makes the sea ice extend further south; this in turn leads to a surface cooling up to 20 years after the eruptions.
Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
Clim. Past, 18, 1047–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1047-2022, 2022
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 413–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, 2022
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We study the sensitivity of a regional climate model to resolution and soil scheme changes. Our results show that the use of finer resolutions mainly affects precipitation outputs, particularly in summer due to changes in convective processes. Finer resolutions are associated with larger biases compared with observations. Changing the land surface model scheme affects the simulation of near-surface temperatures, yielding the lowest biases in mean temperature with the most complex soil scheme.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Stephan J. Lorenz, Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, and Ulrike Herzschuh
Clim. Past, 17, 2481–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2481-2021, 2021
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Using the comprehensive Earth system model, MPI-ESM1.2, we explore the global Holocene vegetation changes and interpret them in terms of the Holocene climate change. The model results reveal that most of the Holocene vegetation transitions seen outside the high northern latitudes can be attributed to modifications in the intensity of the global summer monsoons.
Cited articles
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Cuesta-Valero, F. J., García-García, A., Beltrami, H., and Smerdon, J. E.: First assessment of continental energy storage in CMIP5 simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 5326–5335, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068496, 2016. a
de Vrese, P. and Brovkin, V.: Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios, Nature Communications, 12, 2688, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5, 2021. a
de Vrese, P., Georgievski, G., Gonzalez Rouco, J. F., Notz, D., Stacke, T., Steinert, N. J., Wilkenskjeld, S., and Brovkin, V.: Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate, The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a, b
Farquharson, L. M., Romanovsky, V. E., Cable, W. L., Walker, D. A., Kokelj, S. V., and Nicolsky, D.: Climate Change Drives Widespread and Rapid Thermokarst Development in Very Cold Permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic, Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 6681–6689, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082187, 2019. a
García-Pereira, F., González-Rouco, J. F., Melo-Aguilar, C., Steinert, N. J., García-Bustamante, E., de Vrese, P., Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S., Hagemann, S., Cuesta-Valero, F. J., García-García, A., and Beltrami, H.: First comprehensive assessment of industrial-era land heat uptake from multiple sources, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 547–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, 2024a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
García-Pereira, F., González-Rouco, J. F., Schmid, T., Melo-Aguilar, C., Vegas-Cañas, C., Steinert, N. J., Roldán-Gómez, P. J., Cuesta-Valero, F. J., García-García, A., Beltrami, H., and de Vrese, P.: Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the soil and bedrock thermal regimes in central Spain, SOIL, 10, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, 2024b. a, b
Garcia-Pereira, F., González-Rouco, J. F., and Jungclaus, J.: Dataset: Permafrost sensitivity to soil hydro-thermodynamics in historical and scenario simulations with the MPI-ESM, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17454575, 2025. a
Giorgetta, M. A., Roeckner, E., Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Rast, S., Kornblueh, L., Schmidt, H., Kinne, S., Hohenegger, C., Möbis, B., Krismer, T., Wieners, K.-H., and Stevens, B.: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 – Model description, vol. 135 of Berichte zur Erdsystemforschung/Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, https://doi.org/10.17617/2.1810480, 2013. a
González-Rouco, J. F., Beltrami, H., Zorita, E., and Stevens, M. B.: Borehole climatology: a discussion based on contributions from climate modeling, Clim. Past, 5, 97–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-97-2009, 2009. a
González-Rouco, J. F., Steinert, N. J., García-Bustamante, E., Hagemann, S., de Vrese, P., Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Melo-Aguilar, C., García-Pereira, F., and Navarro, J.: Increasing the depth of a Land Surface Model. Part I: Impacts on the soil thermal regime and energy storage, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22, 3211–3230, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0024.1, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
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Hermoso de Mendoza, I., Beltrami, H., MacDougall, A. H., and Mareschal, J.-C.: Lower boundary conditions in land surface models – effects on the permafrost and the carbon pools: a case study with CLM4.5, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, 2020. a, b, c
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Hugelius, G., Bockheim, J. G., Camill, P., Elberling, B., Grosse, G., Harden, J. W., Johnson, K., Jorgenson, T., Koven, C. D., Kuhry, P., Michaelson, G., Mishra, U., Palmtag, J., Ping, C.-L., O'Donnell, J., Schirrmeister, L., Schuur, E. A. G., Sheng, Y., Smith, L. C., Strauss, J., and Yu, Z.: A new data set for estimating organic carbon storage to 3 m depth in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 393–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-393-2013, 2013. a, b
Hugelius, G., Strauss, J., Zubrzycki, S., Harden, J. W., Schuur, E. A. G., Ping, C.-L., Schirrmeister, L., Grosse, G., Michaelson, G. J., Koven, C. D., O'Donnell, J. A., Elberling, B., Mishra, U., Camill, P., Yu, Z., Palmtag, J., and Kuhry, P.: Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps, Biogeosciences, 11, 6573–6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, 2014. a, b, c, d, e, f
Jungclaus, J. H., Fischer, N., Haak, H., Lohmann, K., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Mikolajewicz, U., Notz, D., and von Storch, J. S.: Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5, 422–446, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20023, 2013. a
Koven, C. D., Riley, W. J., and Stern, A.: Analysis of Permafrost Thermal Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models, Journal of Climate, 26, 1877–1900, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00228.1, 2013. a
Lacroix, F., Zaehle, S., Caldararu, S., Schaller, J., Stimmler, P., Holl, D., Kutzbach, L., and Göckede, M.: Mismatch of N release from the permafrost and vegetative uptake opens pathways of increasing nitrous oxide emissions in the high Arctic, Global Change Biology, 28, 5973–5990, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16345, 2022. a
Langer, M., von Deimling, T. S., Westermann, S., Rolph, R., Rutte, R., Antonova, S., Rachold, V., Schultz, M., Oehme, A., and Grosse, G.: Thawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination, Nature Communications, 14, 1721, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37276-4, 2023. a
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenéz-de-la Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 998–1038, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019. a
Melo-Aguilar, C., González-Rouco, J. F., García-Bustamante, E., Navarro-Montesinos, J., and Steinert, N.: Influence of radiative forcing factors on ground–air temperature coupling during the last millennium: implications for borehole climatology, Clim. Past, 14, 1583–1606, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1583-2018, 2018. a
Menard, C. B., Essery, R., Krinner, G., Arduini, G., Bartlett, P., Boone, A., Brutel-Vuilmet, C., Burke, E., Cuntz, M., Dai, Y., Decharme, B., Dutra, E., Fang, X., Fierz, C., Gusev, Y., Hagemann, S., Haverd, V., Kim, H., Lafaysse, M., Marke, T., Nasonova, O., Nitta, T., Niwano, M., Pomeroy, J., Schädler, G., Semenov, V. A., Smirnova, T., Strasser, U., Swenson, S., Turkov, D., Wever, N., and Yuan, H.: Scientific and Human Errors in a Snow Model Intercomparison, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102, E61–E79, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0329.1, 2021. a
Mottaghy, D. and Rath, V.: Latent heat effects in subsurface heat transport modelling and their impact on palaeotemperature reconstructions, Geophysical Journal International, 164, 236–245, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02843.x, 2006. a
Mudryk, L., Santolaria-Otín, M., Krinner, G., Ménégoz, M., Derksen, C., Brutel-Vuilmet, C., Brady, M., and Essery, R.: Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, The Cryosphere, 14, 2495–2514, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020, 2020. a
Nitzbon, J., Schneider von Deimling, T., Aliyeva, M., Chadburn, S., Grosse, G., Laboor, S., Lee, H., Lohmann, G., Steinert, N., Stuenzi, S., Werner, M., Westermann, S., and Langer, M.: No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point, Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4, 2024. a
Nitzbon, J., Langer, M., Müller-Ißberner, L. A., Dietze, E., and Werner, M.: How temperature seasonality drives interglacial permafrost dynamics: Implications for paleo reconstructions and future thaw trajectories, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4011, 2025. a
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Short summary
This work shows that changing the hydrological state of permafrost produces differences of up to 3 °C in the annual ground temperature, 1–2 m in the active layer thickness, and 5 million km2 in the permafrost extent. Including a deeper vertical thermal scheme reduces the extent decline by more than 2 million km2 in the highest radiative emission scenario. This is shown for the first time in fully-coupled experiments with an Earth System Model.
This work shows that changing the hydrological state of permafrost produces differences of up to...
