The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5959-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5959-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
Research article
 | 
20 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 20 Nov 2025

Permafrost sensitivity to soil hydro-thermodynamics in historical and scenario simulations with the MPI-ESM

Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Nagore Meabe-Yanguas, Philipp de Vrese, Norman Julius Steinert, Johann Jungclaus, and Stephan Lorenz

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Short summary
This work shows that changing the hydrological state of permafrost produces differences of up to 3 °C in the annual ground temperature, 1–2 m in the active layer thickness, and 5 million km2 in the permafrost extent. Including a deeper vertical thermal scheme reduces the extent decline by more than 2 million km2 in the highest radiative emission scenario. This is shown for the first time in fully-coupled experiments with an Earth System Model.
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