ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

O'Neill, James F.; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Martin, Daniel F.; Shafer, Courtney; Cornford, Stephen L.; Seroussi, Hélène L.; Nowicki, Sophie; Adhikari, Mira; Gregoire, Lauren J.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025

Articles | Volume 19, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6...

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 2

Research article

|

04 Feb 2025

Research article |

| 04 Feb 2025

ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025-supplement

Data sets

Data for "ISMIP6-based Antarctic Projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model" James O'Neill https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13880450

Short summary

We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.