The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
Research article
 | 
04 Feb 2025
Research article |  | 04 Feb 2025

ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire

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Latest update: 02 Nov 2025
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Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
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The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6...