Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5045-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5045-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 24 Oct 2025
| 24 Oct 2025
Comprehensive assessment of stress calculations for crevasse depths and testing with crevasse penetration as damage
Department of Earth Sciences, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
Sophie Nowicki
Department of Earth Sciences, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
RENEW Institute, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
Kristin Poinar
Department of Earth Sciences, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
RENEW Institute, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
Related authors
No articles found.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Joseph P. Tulenko, Sophie A. Goliber, Renette Jones-Ivey, Justin Quinn, Abani Patra, Kristin Poinar, Sophie Nowicki, Beata M. Csatho, and Jason P. Briner
The Cryosphere, 19, 4327–4333, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4327-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4327-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ghub is an online platform that hosts tools, datasets, and educational resources related to ice sheet science. These resources are provided by ice sheet researchers and allow other researchers, students, educators, and interested members of the general public to analyze, visualize, and download datasets that researchers use to study past and present ice sheet behavior. We describe how users can interact with Ghub, showcase some available resources, and describe the future of the Ghub project.
Yue Li, Gang Tang, Eleanor O’Rourke, Samar Minallah, Martim Mas e Braga, Sophie Nowicki, Robin S. Smith, David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Daniele Peano, Gesa Meyer, Birgit Hassler, Jiafu Mao, Yongkang Xue, and Martin Juckes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3207, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Land and Land Ice Theme Opportunities describe a list that contains 25 variable groups with 716 variables, which are potentially available to the broad scientific audience for performing analysis in land-atmosphere coupling, hydrological processes and freshwater systems, glacier and ice sheet mass balance and their influence on the sea levels, land use, and plant phenology.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anne Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1940, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Peter Van Katwyk, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Sophie Nowicki, Hélène Seroussi, and Karianne J. Bergen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-870, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We present ISEFlow, a machine learning emulator that predicts how the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets will contribute to sea level. ISEFlow is fast and accurate, allowing scientists to explore different climate scenarios with greater confidence. ISEFlow distinguishes between high and low emissions scenarios, helping us understand how today’s choices impact future sea levels. ISEFlow supports more reliable climate predictions and helps scientists study the future of ice sheets.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Hélène L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Mira Adhikari, and Lauren J. Gregoire
The Cryosphere, 19, 541–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century under a range of future climates and varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that ocean temperatures increase and more snow falls on the ice sheet under stronger warming scenarios. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melt-driven loss exceeds snowfall-driven gains, meaning that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Dominik Fahrner, Donald Slater, Aman KC, Claudia Cenedese, David A. Sutherland, Ellyn Enderlin, Femke de Jong, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Michael Wood, Peter Nienow, Sophie Nowicki, and Till Wagner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-411, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-411, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Marine-terminating glaciers can lose mass through frontal ablation, which comprises submarine and surface melting, and iceberg calving. We estimate frontal ablation for 49 marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland by combining existing, satellite derived data and calculating volume change near the glacier front over time. The dataset offers exciting opportunities to study the influence of climate forcings on marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland over multi-decadal timescales.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Celia Trunz, Kristin Poinar, Lauren C. Andrews, Matthew D. Covington, Jessica Mejia, Jason Gulley, and Victoria Siegel
The Cryosphere, 17, 5075–5094, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5075-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Models simulating water pressure variations at the bottom of glaciers must use large storage parameters to produce realistic results. Whether that storage occurs englacially (in moulins) or subglacially is a matter of debate. Here, we directly simulate moulin volume to constrain the storage there. We find it is not enough. Instead, subglacial processes, including basal melt and input from upstream moulins, must be responsible for stabilizing these water pressure fluctuations.
Denis Felikson, Sophie Nowicki, Isabel Nias, Beata Csatho, Anton Schenk, Michael J. Croteau, and Bryant Loomis
The Cryosphere, 17, 4661–4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4661-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We narrow the spread in model simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet using velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change observations. We find that the type of observation chosen can lead to significantly different calibrated probability distributions. Further work is required to understand how to best calibrate ensembles of ice sheet simulations because this will improve probability distributions of projected sea-level rise, which is crucial for coastal planning and adaptation.
Brandon L. Graham, Jason P. Briner, Nicolás E. Young, Allie Balter-Kennedy, Michele Koppes, Joerg M. Schaefer, Kristin Poinar, and Elizabeth K. Thomas
The Cryosphere, 17, 4535–4547, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4535-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial erosion is a fundamental process operating on Earth's surface. Two processes of glacial erosion, abrasion and plucking, are poorly understood. We reconstructed rates of abrasion and quarrying in Greenland. We derive a total glacial erosion rate of 0.26 ± 0.16 mm per year. We also learned that erosion via these two processes is about equal. Because the site is similar to many other areas covered by continental ice sheets, these results may be applied to many places on Earth.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Jason P. Briner, Caleb K. Walcott, Joerg M. Schaefer, Nicolás E. Young, Joseph A. MacGregor, Kristin Poinar, Benjamin A. Keisling, Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Mary R. Albert, Tanner Kuhl, and Grant Boeckmann
The Cryosphere, 16, 3933–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3933-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The 7.4 m of sea level equivalent stored as Greenland ice is getting smaller every year. The uncertain trajectory of ice loss could be better understood with knowledge of the ice sheet's response to past climate change. Within the bedrock below the present-day ice sheet is an archive of past ice-sheet history. We analyze all available data from Greenland to create maps showing where on the ice sheet scientists can drill, using currently available drills, to obtain sub-ice materials.
Joseph A. MacGregor, Winnie Chu, William T. Colgan, Mark A. Fahnestock, Denis Felikson, Nanna B. Karlsson, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, and Michael Studinger
The Cryosphere, 16, 3033–3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Where the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet is frozen and where it is thawed is not well known, yet knowing this state is increasingly important to interpret modern changes in ice flow there. We produced a second synthesis of knowledge of the basal thermal state of the ice sheet using airborne and satellite observations and numerical models. About one-third of the ice sheet’s bed is likely thawed; two-fifths is likely frozen; and the remainder is too uncertain to specify.
Lauren C. Andrews, Kristin Poinar, and Celia Trunz
The Cryosphere, 16, 2421–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2421-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2421-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a model for moulin geometry motivated by the wide range of sizes and shapes of explored moulins. Moulins comprise 10–14 % of the Greenland englacial–subglacial hydrologic system and act as time-varying water storage reservoirs. Moulin geometry can vary approximately 10 % daily and over 100 % seasonally. Moulin shape modulates the efficiency of the subglacial system that controls ice flow and should thus be included in hydrologic models.
Kristin Poinar and Lauren C. Andrews
The Cryosphere, 15, 1455–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1455-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study addresses Greenland supraglacial lake drainages. We analyze ice deformation associated with lake drainages over 18 summers to assess whether
precursorstrain-rate events consistently precede lake drainages. We find that currently available remote sensing data products cannot resolve these events, and thus we cannot predict future lake drainages. Thus, future avenues for evaluating this hypothesis will require major field-based GPS or photogrammetry efforts.
William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Xylar Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, and Sophie Nowicki
The Cryosphere, 15, 633–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model is forced with ocean warming predicted by global climate models. Generally, ice loss begins slowly, accelerates by 2100, and then continues unabated, with widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mass loss by 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm of equivalent sea level rise, based on the predicted ocean warming and assumptions about how this warming drives melting beneath ice shelves.
Cited articles
Albrecht, T. and Levermann, A.: Fracture-induced softening for large-scale ice dynamics, The Cryosphere, 8, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-587-2014, 2014.
Alley, K. E., Scambos, T. A., Alley, R. B., and Holschuh, N.: Troughs developed in ice-stream shear margins precondition ice shelves for ocean-driven breakup, Sci. Adv., 5, eaax2215, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax2215, 2019.
Amaral, T., Bartholomaus, T. C., and Enderlin, E. M.: Evaluation of Iceberg Calving Models Against Observations From Greenland Outlet Glaciers, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 125, e2019JF005444, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005444, 2020.
Anderson, T. L.: Fracture mechanics: fundamentals and applications, 3rd edn., Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton, FL, ISBN 9780429125676, https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420058215, 2005.
Bassis, J. N. and Walker, C. C.: Upper and lower limits on the stability of calving glaciers from the yield strength envelope of ice, P. Roy. Soc. A, 468, 913–931, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2011.0422, 2011.
Baurley, N. R., Robson, B. A., and Hart, J. K.: Long-term impact of the proglacial lake Jökulsárlón on the flow velocity and stability of Breiðamerkurjökull glacier, Iceland, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 45, 2647–2663, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4920, 2020.
Benn, D. I., Hulton, N. R. J., and Mottram, R. H.: `Calving laws', `sliding laws' and the stability of tidewater glaciers, Ann. Glaciol., 46, 123–130, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756407782871161, 2007.
Benn, D. I., Todd, J., Luckman, A., Bevan, S., Chudley, T. R., Astroem, J., Zwinger, T., Cook, S., and Christoffersen, P.: Controls on calving at a large Greenland tidewater glacier: stress regime, self-organised criticality and the crevasse-depth calving law, J. Glaciol., https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.81, 2023.
Berg, B. and Bassis, J.: Crevasse advection increases glacier calving, J. Glaciol., 68, 977–986, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.10, 2022.
Björnsson, H., Pálsson, F., and Guðmundsson, S.: Jökulsárlón at Breiðamerkursandur, Vatnajökull, Iceland: 20th century changes and future outlook, Jökull, 50, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.33799/jokull2001.50.001, 2001.
Bondzio, J. H., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., Kleiner, T., Rückamp, M., Mouginot, J., Moon, T., Larour, E. Y., and Humbert, A.: The mechanisms behind Jakobshavn Isbræ's acceleration and mass loss: A 3-D thermomechanical model study, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 6252–6260, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073309, 2017.
Buck, W. R.: The role of fresh water in driving ice shelf crevassing, rifting and calving, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 624, 118444, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118444, 2023.
Borstad, C., Khazendar, A., Scheuchl, B., Morlighem, M., Larour, E., and Rignot, E.: A constitutive framework for predicting weakening and reduced buttressing of ice shelves based on observations of the progressive deterioration of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2027–2035, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067365, 2016.
Borstad, C. P., Khazendar, A., Larour, E., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Schodlok, M. P., and Seroussi, H.: A damage mechanics assessment of the Larsen B ice shelf prior to collapse: Toward a physically-based calving law, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053317, 2012.
Choi, Y., Morlighem, M., Wood, M., and Bondzio, J. H.: Comparison of four calving laws to model Greenland outlet glaciers, The Cryosphere, 12, 3735–3746, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3735-2018, 2018.
Clayton, T., Duddu, R., Siegert, M., and Martínez-Pañeda, E.: A stress-based poro-damage phase field model for hydrofracturing of creeping glaciers and ice shelves, Engineering Fracture Mechanics, 272, 108693, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfracmech.2022.108693, 2022.
Clayton, T., Duddu, R., Hageman, T., and Martínez-Pañeda, E.: The influence of firn layer material properties on surface crevasse propagation in glaciers and ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 18, 5573–5593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5573-2024, 2024.
Coffey, N. B., Lai, C.-Y., Wang, Y., Buck, W. R., Surawy-Stepney, T., and Hogg, A. E.: Theoretical stability of ice shelf basal crevasses with a vertical temperature profile, J. Glaciol., 70, e64, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.52, 2024.
Colgan, W., Rajaram, H., Abdalati, W., McCutchan, C., Mottram, R., Moussavi, M. S., and Grigsby, S.: Glacier crevasses; observations, models, and mass balance implications, Rev. Geophys., 54, 119–161, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000504, 2016.
Comiso, J. C.: Variability and Trends in Antarctic Surface Temperatures from In Situ and Satellite Infrared Measurements, J. Climate, 13, 1674–1696, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1674:VATIAS>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Crameri, F., Shephard, G. E., and Heron, P. J.: The misuse of colour in science communication, Nat. Commun., 11, 5444, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19160-7, 2020.
Cuffey, K. M. and Paterson, W. S. B.: The Physics of Glaciers, 4th edn., Elsevier, Burlington, MA, ISBN 9780123694614, 2010.
Dahl-Jensen, D.: Steady thermomechanical flow along two-dimensional flow lines in large grounded ice sheets, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 94, 10355–10362, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB094iB08p10355, 1989.
Duddu, R., Jiménez, S., and Bassis, J.: A non-local continuum poro-damage mechanics model for hydrofracturing of surface crevasses in grounded glaciers, J. Glaciol., 66, 415–429, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.16, 2020.
Echelmeyer, K. A., Harrison, W. D., Larsen, C., and Mitchell, J. E.: The role of the margins in the dynamics of an active ice stream, J. Glaciol., 40, 527–538, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000012417, 1994.
Enderlin, E. M. and Bartholomaus, T. C.: Sharp contrasts in observed and modeled crevasse patterns at Greenland's marine terminating glaciers, The Cryosphere, 14, 4121–4133, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4121-2020, 2020.
Fürst, J. J., Durand, G., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Tavard, L., Rankl, M., Braun, M., and Gagliardini, O.: The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 479–482, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2912, 2016.
Gao, Y., Ghosh, G., Jiménez, S., and Duddu, R.: A Finite-Element-Based Cohesive Zone Model of Water-Filled Surface Crevasse Propagation in Floating Ice Tongues, Comput. Sci. Eng., 25, 8–16, https://doi.org/10.1109/MCSE.2023.3315661, 2023.
Gardner, A. S., Moholdt, G., Scambos, T., Fahnstock, M., Ligtenberg, S., van den Broeke, M., and Nilsson, J.: Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years, The Cryosphere, 12, 521–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-521-2018, 2018.
Gardner, A. S., Fahnestock, M., and Scambos, T.: MEaSUREs ITS_LIVE Regional Glacier and Ice Sheet Surface Velocities. (NSIDC-0776, Version 1), Boulder, Colorado USA, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/6II6VW8LLWJ7, 2022.
Glen, J. W.: Experiments on the Deformation of Ice, J. Glaciol., 2, 111–114, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000034067, 1952.
Goldsby, D. L. and Kohlstedt, D. L.: Superplastic deformation of ice: Experimental observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 106, 11017–11030, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JB900336, 2001.
Gudmundsson, G. H.: Ice-shelf buttressing and the stability of marine ice sheets, The Cryosphere, 7, 647–655, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-647-2013, 2013.
Guðmundsson, S., Björnsson, H., and Pálsson, F.: Changes of Breiðamerkurjökull glacier, SE-Iceland, from its late nineteenth century maximum to the present, Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 99, 338–352, https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2017.1355216, 2017.
Howat, I. M., Porter, C., Smith, B. E., Noh, M.-J., and Morin, P.: The Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 13, 665–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-665-2019, 2019.
Hulbe, C. L., Klinger, M., Masterson, M., Catania, G., Cruikshank, K., and Bugni, A.: Tidal bending and strand cracks at the Kamb Ice Stream grounding line, West Antarctica, J. Glaciol., 62, 816–824, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.74, 2016.
Humbert, A.: The temperature regime of Fimbulisen, Antarctica, Ann. Glaciol., 51, 56–64, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756410791392673, 2010.
Huth, A., Duddu, R., and Smith, B.: A Generalized Interpolation Material Point Method for Shallow Ice Shelves. 2: Anisotropic Nonlocal Damage Mechanics and Rift Propagation, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2020MS002292, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002292, 2021.
Jezek, K. C.: A modified theory of bottom crevasses used as a means for measuring the buttressing effect of ice shelves on inland ice sheets, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 89, 1925–1931, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB089iB03p01925, 1984.
Jiménez, S. and Duddu, R.: On the evaluation of the stress intensity factor in calving models using linear elastic fracture mechanics, J. Glaciol., 64, 759–770, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2018.64, 2018.
Khazendar, A., Borstad, C. P., Scheuchl, B., Rignot, E., and Seroussi, H.: The evolving instability of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf and its tributary glaciers, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 419, 199–210, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.03.014, 2015.
Lai, C.-Y., Kingslake, J., Wearing, M. G., Chen, P.-H. C., Gentine, P., Li, H., Spergel, J. J., and van Wessem, J. M.: Vulnerability of Antarctica's ice shelves to meltwater-driven fracture, Nature, 584, 574, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2627-8, 2020.
Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., and Rignot, E.: Continental scale, high order, high spatial resolution, ice sheet modeling using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002140, 2012.
Lhermitte, S., Sun, S., Shuman, C., Wouters, B., Pattyn, F., Wuite, J., Berthier, E., and Nagler, T.: Damage accelerates ice shelf instability and mass loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 24735–24741, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1912890117, 2020.
Lipovsky, B. P.: Ice shelf rift propagation: stability, three-dimensional effects, and the role of marginal weakening, The Cryosphere, 14, 1673–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1673-2020, 2020.
Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Antonov, J. I., Boyer, T. P., Garcia, H. E., Baranova, O. K., Zweng, M. M., Paver, C. R., Reagan, J. R., Johnson, D. R., Hamilton, M., and Seidov, D.: World Ocean Atlas 2013, Volume 1: Temperature. S. Levitus, Ed.; A. Mishonov, Technical Ed.; NOAA Atlas NESDIS 73, 40 pp., https://doi.org/10.7289/V55X26VD, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5F769GT, 2013.
Luckman, A., Jansen, D., Kulessa, B., King, E. C., Sammonds, P., and Benn, D. I.: Basal crevasses in Larsen C Ice Shelf and implications for their global abundance, The Cryosphere, 6, 113–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-113-2012, 2012.
Lüthi, M., Funk, M., Iken, A., Gogineni, S., and Truffer, M.: Mechanisms of fast flow in Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland: Part III. Measurements of ice deformation, temperature and cross-borehole conductivity in boreholes to the bedrock, J. Glaciol., 48, 369–385, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756502781831322, 2002.
MacAyeal, D. R.: Large-scale ice flow over a viscous basal sediment: Theory and application to ice stream B, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 94, 4071–4087, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB094iB04p04071, 1989.
Maier, N., Humphrey, N., Harper, J., and Meierbachtol, T.: Sliding dominates slow-flowing margin regions, Greenland Ice Sheet, Sci. Adv., 5, eaaw5406, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw5406, 2019.
McDougall, T. and Barker, P. M.: Getting started with TEOS-10 and the Gibbs Seawater (GSW) Oceanographic Toolbox, SCOR/IAPSO WG, 127, 1–28, 2011.
McGrath, D., Steffen, K., Rajaram, H., Scambos, T. A., Abdalati, W., and Rignot, E.: Basal crevasses on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica; implications for meltwater ponding and hydrofracture, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052413, 2012.
Meng, Y., Culberg, R., and Lai, C.-Y.: Vulnerability of firn to hydrofracture: poromechanics modeling, J. Glaciol., 70, e45, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.47, 2024.
Millstein, J. D., Minchew, B. M., and Pegler, S. S.: Ice viscosity is more sensitive to stress than commonly assumed, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00385-x, 2022.
Mobasher, M. E., Duddu, R., and Waisman, H.: Computational Modeling of Ice Mechanics: A Review of Challenges and Approaches in Engineering and Glaciology, in: Reference Module in Materials Science and Materials Engineering, Elsevier, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-90646-3.00025-3, 2024.
Morlighem, M.: MEaSUREs BedMachine Antarctica (NSIDC-0756, Version 3), Boulder, Colorado USA, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/FPSU0V1MWUB6, 2022.
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T., Blankenship, D., Drews, R., Eagles, G., Eisen, O., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fretwell, P., Goel, V., Greenbaum, J. S., Gudmundsson, H., Guo, J., Helm, V., Hofstede, C., Howat, I., Humbert, A., Jokat, W., Karlsson, N. B., Lee, W. S., Matsuoka, K., Millan, R., Mouginot, J., Paden, J., Pattyn, F., Roberts, J., Rosier, S., Ruppel, A., Seroussi, H., Smith, E. C., Steinhage, D., Sun, B., Broeke, M. R. van den, Ommen, T. D. van, Wessem, M. van, and Young, D. A.: Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, Nat. Geosci., 13, 132–137, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8, 2020.
Mottram, R. H. and Benn, D. I.: Testing crevasse-depth models: a field study at Breiðamerkurjökull, Iceland, J. Glaciol., 55, 746–752, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214309789470905, 2009.
Nick, F., Veen, C. J., Vieli, A., and Benn, D.: A physically based calving model applied to marine outlet glaciers and implications for the glacier dynamics, J. Glaciol., 56, 781–794, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310794457344, 2010.
Nye, J. F.: The Flow Law of Ice from Measurements in Glacier Tunnels, Laboratory Experiments and the Jungfraufirn Borehole Experiment, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 219, 477–489, 1953.
Nye, J. F.: Comments on Dr. Loewe's Letter and Notes on Crevasses, J. Glaciol., 2, 512–514, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000032652, 1955.
Pollard, D., DeConto, R. M., and Alley, R. B.: Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 412, 112–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035, 2015.
Reynolds, B., Nowicki, S., and Poinar, K.: Resistive stress / Nye crevasse formulation demo code for “Comprehensive Assessment of Stress Calculations for Crevasse Depths and Testing with Crevasse Penetration as Damage”, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15420465, 2025.
Rignot, E., Casassa, G., Gogineni, P., Krabill, W., Rivera, A., and Thomas, R.: Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020697, 2004.
Rignot, E., Scheuchl, B., Mouginot, J., and Jeong, S.: MEaSUREs Multi-year Reference Velocity Maps of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (NSIDC-0761, Version 1), Boulder, Colorado USA, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/FB851ZIZYX5O, 2022.
Rist, M. A., Sammonds, P. R., Murrell, S. a. F., Meredith, P. G., Oerter, H., and Doake, C. S. M.: Experimental fracture and mechanical properties of Antarctic ice: preliminary results, Ann. Glaciol., 23, 284–292, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0260305500013550, 1996.
Rott, H., Müller, F., Nagler, T., and Floricioiu, D.: The imbalance of glaciers after disintegration of Larsen-B ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, The Cryosphere, 5, 125–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-125-2011, 2011.
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007.
Scott, J. B. T., Smith, A. M., Bingham, R. G., and Vaughan, D. G.: Crevasses triggered on Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, by drilling through an exceptional melt layer, Ann. Glaciol., 51, 65–70, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756410791392763, 2010.
Shabana, A. A.: Computational continuum mechanics, 3rd edn., Wiley, Hoboken, New Jersey, ISBN 9781119293248, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119293248, 2018.
Smith, R. A.: The Application of Fracture Mechanics to the Problem of Crevasse Penetration, J. Glaciol., 17, 223–228, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000013563, 1976.
Sun, S., Cornford, S. L., Moore, J. C., Gladstone, R., and Zhao, L.: Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model, The Cryosphere, 11, 2543–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, 2017.
Surawy-Stepney, T., Hogg, A. E., Cornford, S. L., and Davison, B. J.: Episodic dynamic change linked to damage on the Thwaites Glacier Ice Tongue, Nat. Geosci., 16, 37–43, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01097-9, 2023.
Todd, J., Christoffersen, P., Zwinger, T., Råback, P., Chauché, N., Benn, D., Luckman, A., Ryan, J., Toberg, N., Slater, D., and Hubbard, A.: A Full-Stokes 3-D Calving Model Applied to a Large Greenlandic Glacier, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth Surf., 123, 410–432, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004349, 2018.
van der Veen, C. J.: Fracture mechanics approach to penetration of surface crevasses on glaciers, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 27, 31–47, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(97)00022-0, 1998a.
van der Veen, C. J.: Fracture mechanics approach to penetration of bottom crevasses on glaciers, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 27, 213–223, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(98)00006-8, 1998b.
van der Veen, C. J.: Crevasses on glaciers 1, Polar Geography, 23, 213–245, https://doi.org/10.1080/10889379909377677, 1999.
van der Veen, C. J., Plummer, J. C., and Stearns, L. A.: Controls on the recent speed-up of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, J. Glaciol., 57, 770–782, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311797409776, 2011.
van der Veen, C. J.: Fundamentals of glacier dynamics, 2nd edn., CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, https://doi.org/10.1201/b14059, 2013.
van der Veen, C. J. and Whillans, I. M.: Force Budget: I. Theory and Numerical Methods, J. Glaciol., 35, 53–60, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214389793701581, 1989.
van de Wal, R. S. W., Nicholls, R. J., Behar, D., McInnes, K., Stammer, D., Lowe, J. A., Church, J. A., DeConto, R., Fettweis, X., Goelzer, H., Haasnoot, M., Haigh, I. D., Hinkel, J., Horton, B. P., James, T. S., Jenkins, A., LeCozannet, G., Levermann, A., Lipscomb, W. H., Marzeion, B., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Price, S. F., Seroussi, H., Sun, S., Veatch, W., and White, K.: A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners, Earth's Future, 10, e2022EF002751, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002751, 2022.
Van Wyk de Vries, M., Lea, J. M., and Ashmore, D. W.: Crevasse density, orientation and temporal variability at Narsap Sermia, Greenland, J. Glaciol., 69, 1125–1137, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.3, 2023.
Wang, Y., Zhao, C., Gladstone, R., Galton-Fenzi, B., and Warner, R.: Thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf from borehole observations and simulations, The Cryosphere, 16, 1221–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, 2022.
Weertman, J.: Can a water-filled crevasse reach the bottom surface of a glacier?, International Association of Scientific Hydrology–Association Internationale d'Hydrologie Scientifique (International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics–Union de Geodesie et de Geophysique Internationale), Publication, Louvain, 95, 139–145, 1973.
Weertman, J.: Bottom Crevasses, J. Glaciol., 25, 185–188, https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000010418, 1980.
Wilner, J. A., Morlighem, M., and Cheng, G.: Evaluation of four calving laws for Antarctic ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 17, 4889–4901, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4889-2023, 2023.
Zweng, M. M., Reagan, J. R., Antonov, J. I., Locarnini, R. A., Mishonov, A. V., Boyer, T. P., Garcia, H. E., Baranova, O. K., Johnson, D. R., Seidov, D., and Biddle, M. M.: World Ocean Atlas 2013, Volume 2: Salinity, S. Levitus, Ed.; A. Mishonov, Technical Ed.; NOAA Atlas NESDIS 74, 39 pp., https://doi.org/10.7289/V5251G4D, 2013
Short summary
Stress in glaciers, ice sheets, and ice shelves causes crevasses, which are important drivers of retreat and sea level rise. We find that different assumptions found in the literature lead to significantly (up to a factor of 2) different crevasse depths and recommend a calculation based on observed ice flow patterns. We find that other stress calculations likely overpredict ice shelf vulnerability to hydrofracture.
Stress in glaciers, ice sheets, and ice shelves causes crevasses, which are important drivers of...
