The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 12
Brief communication
 | 
05 Dec 2024
Brief communication |  | 05 Dec 2024

Brief communication: New perspectives on the skill of modelled sea ice trends in light of recent Antarctic sea ice loss

Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson

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Latest update: 01 Nov 2025
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Short summary
Until recently, satellite data showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice area since 1979, but climate models simulated a decrease over this period. This mismatch was one reason for low confidence in model projections of 21st-century sea ice loss. We show that following low Antarctic sea ice in 2022 and 2023, we can no longer conclude that modelled and observed trends differ. However, differences in the manner of the decline mean that model sea ice projections should still be viewed with caution.
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