Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
15 Nov 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 15 Nov 2024
| 15 Nov 2024
Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations
Harry Zekollari
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
Matthias Huss
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
Lilian Schuster
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Fabien Maussion
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
David R. Rounce
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
Rodrigo Aguayo
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Nicolas Champollion
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), CNES, Grenoble, France
Loris Compagno
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd (Swiss Re), Zurich, Switzerland
Romain Hugonnet
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Ben Marzeion
Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi
Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Center for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany
Daniel Farinotti
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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Cited
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Machine learning improves seasonal mass balance prediction for unmonitored glaciers K. Sjursen et al.
- Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C H. Zekollari et al.
- AGILE v0.1: The Open Global Glacier Data Assimilation Framework P. Schmitt et al.
- Projecting the response of Greenland's peripheral glaciers to future climate change: glacier losses, sea level impact, freshwater contributions, and peak water timing M. Shafeeque et al.
- Projections of Changes in Glacier Area and Volume in the Xinjiang Region, northwestern China, Based on CGI-XJ2020 B. Liu et al.
- Marked acceleration in glacier mass loss across High Mountain Asia since 2000 Y. Wang et al.
- CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections L. Ultee et al.
- Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century M. Kneib et al.
- Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C L. Schuster et al.
- Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance L. van der Laan et al.
- Community estimate of global glacier mass changes from 2000 to 2023 M. Zemp et al.
- Future glacio-hydrological changes in the Andes: a focus on near-future projections up to 2050 A. Caro et al.
- Recent observations and glacier modeling point towards near-complete glacier loss in western Austria (Ötztal and Stubai mountain range) if 1.5 °C is not met L. Hartl et al.
- Observed positive feedback between surface ablation and crevasse formation drives glacier acceleration and potential surge U. Nanni et al.
- A dynamic biome-specific governance approach that integrates indigenous knowledge and pluriversal thinking A. Oarga-Mulec & K. Skene
- Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century L. Van Tricht et al.
- Brief communication: Sensitivity analysis of peak water to ice thickness and temperature: A case study in the Western Kunlun Mountains of the Tibetan Plateau L. Gimenes et al.
- Tracing ice loss from the Late Holocene to the future in eastern Nuussuaq, central western Greenland J. Bonsoms et al.
- Anthropogenic drivers and their impact on the hydrological regime of Nepal: a review S. Sayedi et al.
- Regional glacier melt modeling: insights from surface energy balance and positive degree-day comparisons H. Phelps et al.
- Progress and future directions in constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations D. Felikson et al.
- Assessing the impact of ice thickness uncertainty on future glacier evolution in the Himalayas using a higher-order glacier flow model X. Qi et al.
- Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information P. Pfleiderer et al.
- Accelerating High Mountain Asia Glacier Loss From ICESat and ICESat-2 J. Hassan et al.
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Machine learning improves seasonal mass balance prediction for unmonitored glaciers K. Sjursen et al.
- Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C H. Zekollari et al.
- AGILE v0.1: The Open Global Glacier Data Assimilation Framework P. Schmitt et al.
- Projecting the response of Greenland's peripheral glaciers to future climate change: glacier losses, sea level impact, freshwater contributions, and peak water timing M. Shafeeque et al.
- Projections of Changes in Glacier Area and Volume in the Xinjiang Region, northwestern China, Based on CGI-XJ2020 B. Liu et al.
- Marked acceleration in glacier mass loss across High Mountain Asia since 2000 Y. Wang et al.
- CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections L. Ultee et al.
- Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century M. Kneib et al.
- Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C L. Schuster et al.
- Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance L. van der Laan et al.
- Community estimate of global glacier mass changes from 2000 to 2023 M. Zemp et al.
- Future glacio-hydrological changes in the Andes: a focus on near-future projections up to 2050 A. Caro et al.
- Recent observations and glacier modeling point towards near-complete glacier loss in western Austria (Ötztal and Stubai mountain range) if 1.5 °C is not met L. Hartl et al.
- Observed positive feedback between surface ablation and crevasse formation drives glacier acceleration and potential surge U. Nanni et al.
- A dynamic biome-specific governance approach that integrates indigenous knowledge and pluriversal thinking A. Oarga-Mulec & K. Skene
- Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century L. Van Tricht et al.
- Brief communication: Sensitivity analysis of peak water to ice thickness and temperature: A case study in the Western Kunlun Mountains of the Tibetan Plateau L. Gimenes et al.
- Tracing ice loss from the Late Holocene to the future in eastern Nuussuaq, central western Greenland J. Bonsoms et al.
- Anthropogenic drivers and their impact on the hydrological regime of Nepal: a review S. Sayedi et al.
- Regional glacier melt modeling: insights from surface energy balance and positive degree-day comparisons H. Phelps et al.
- Progress and future directions in constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations D. Felikson et al.
- Assessing the impact of ice thickness uncertainty on future glacier evolution in the Himalayas using a higher-order glacier flow model X. Qi et al.
- Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information P. Pfleiderer et al.
- Accelerating High Mountain Asia Glacier Loss From ICESat and ICESat-2 J. Hassan et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 16 May 2026
Editorial statement
This study brings together an impressive amount of data to come up with an updated estimate of global glacier loss until the year 2100. This is an important result in a climate change context, and one of a global dimension.
This study brings together an impressive amount of data to come up with an updated estimate of...
Short summary
Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model...
