Articles | Volume 18, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 26 Jan 2024
| 26 Jan 2024
The evolution of Arctic permafrost over the last 3 centuries from ensemble simulations with the CryoGridLite permafrost model
Moritz Langer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Jan Nitzbon
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Paleoclimate Dynamics Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Brian Groenke
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Lisa-Marie Assmann
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Thomas Schneider von Deimling
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Simone Maria Stuenzi
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Sebastian Westermann
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Advances in Permafrost Representation: Biophysical Processes in Earth System Models and the Role of Offline Models H. Matthes et al.
- Sustainable Strategies to Current Conditions and Climate Change at U.S. Military Bases and Other Nations in the Arctic Region: A 20-Year Comparative Review V. Kaushal & A. Kashyap
- Trends and classification of aerosol observed from MODIS sensor over Northern Europe and the Arctic K. Han et al.
- Improving the moving-grid permafrost model to reveal ground deformation and hydrothermal effects caused by permafrost evolution in the source region of the Yangtze river on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau Z. Sun et al.
- Permafrost Degradation: Mechanisms, Effects, and (Im)Possible Remediation D. Baillarget & G. Scaringi
- A new approach for evaluating regional permafrost changes: A case study in the Hoh Xil on the interior Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau Y. Zhang et al.
- Multisource Synthesized Inventory of CRitical Infrastructure and HUman-Impacted Areas in AlaSka (SIRIUS) S. Kaiser et al.
- How temperature seasonality drives interglacial permafrost dynamics: implications for paleo reconstructions and future thaw trajectories J. Nitzbon et al.
- Permafrost and wildfire carbon emissions indicate need for additional action to keep Paris Agreement temperature goals within reach C. Schädel et al.
- The thermal state of permafrost under climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (1980–2022): a case study of the West Kunlun J. Zhao et al.
- Modeling of maximum runoff characteristics of small rivers in the mountain permafrost zone O. Zhunusova et al.
- Potential vegetation greenness changes in the permafrost areas over the Tibetan Plateau under future climate warming R. Chen et al.
- Assessment of reanalysis soil temperature products over the pan-Arctic permafrost region with consideration of sub-grid heterogeneity Y. Li et al.
- The Response of Maximum Freezing Depth in the Permafrost Region of the Source Region of the Yellow River to Ground Temperature Change X. Bai & W. Wang
- Modeling of maximum runoff characteristics of small rivers in the mountain permafrost zone O. Zhunusova et al.
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Advances in Permafrost Representation: Biophysical Processes in Earth System Models and the Role of Offline Models H. Matthes et al.
- Sustainable Strategies to Current Conditions and Climate Change at U.S. Military Bases and Other Nations in the Arctic Region: A 20-Year Comparative Review V. Kaushal & A. Kashyap
- Trends and classification of aerosol observed from MODIS sensor over Northern Europe and the Arctic K. Han et al.
- Improving the moving-grid permafrost model to reveal ground deformation and hydrothermal effects caused by permafrost evolution in the source region of the Yangtze river on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau Z. Sun et al.
- Permafrost Degradation: Mechanisms, Effects, and (Im)Possible Remediation D. Baillarget & G. Scaringi
- A new approach for evaluating regional permafrost changes: A case study in the Hoh Xil on the interior Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau Y. Zhang et al.
- Multisource Synthesized Inventory of CRitical Infrastructure and HUman-Impacted Areas in AlaSka (SIRIUS) S. Kaiser et al.
- How temperature seasonality drives interglacial permafrost dynamics: implications for paleo reconstructions and future thaw trajectories J. Nitzbon et al.
- Permafrost and wildfire carbon emissions indicate need for additional action to keep Paris Agreement temperature goals within reach C. Schädel et al.
- The thermal state of permafrost under climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (1980–2022): a case study of the West Kunlun J. Zhao et al.
- Modeling of maximum runoff characteristics of small rivers in the mountain permafrost zone O. Zhunusova et al.
- Potential vegetation greenness changes in the permafrost areas over the Tibetan Plateau under future climate warming R. Chen et al.
- Assessment of reanalysis soil temperature products over the pan-Arctic permafrost region with consideration of sub-grid heterogeneity Y. Li et al.
- The Response of Maximum Freezing Depth in the Permafrost Region of the Source Region of the Yellow River to Ground Temperature Change X. Bai & W. Wang
- Modeling of maximum runoff characteristics of small rivers in the mountain permafrost zone O. Zhunusova et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 Apr 2026
Short summary
Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia, we find that post-industrialization permafrost warming has three "hotspots" in NE Canada, N Alaska, and W Siberia. The extent of near-surface permafrost has decreased substantially since 1850, with the largest area losses occurring in the last 50 years. The simulations also show that volcanic eruptions have in some cases counteracted the loss of near-surface permafrost for a few decades.
Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia,...
