Articles | Volume 18, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-363-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 26 Jan 2024
| 26 Jan 2024
The evolution of Arctic permafrost over the last 3 centuries from ensemble simulations with the CryoGridLite permafrost model
Moritz Langer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Jan Nitzbon
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Paleoclimate Dynamics Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Brian Groenke
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Lisa-Marie Assmann
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Thomas Schneider von Deimling
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Simone Maria Stuenzi
Permafrost Research Section, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Sebastian Westermann
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Trends and classification of aerosol observed from MODIS sensor over Northern Europe and the Arctic K. Han et al. 10.1016/j.apr.2024.102329
- Modeling of maximum runoff characteristics of small rivers in the mountain permafrost zone O. Zhunusova et al. 10.7256/2453-8922.2024.4.72657
- A new approach for evaluating regional permafrost changes: A case study in the Hoh Xil on the interior Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau Y. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.005
- Modeling of maximum runoff characteristics of small rivers in the mountain permafrost zone O. Zhunusova et al. 10.7256/2453-8922.2025.1.72657
- Biogeochemical River Runoff Drives Intense Coastal Arctic Ocean CO2 Outgassing C. Bertin et al. 10.1029/2022GL102377
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- Permafrost degradation services for Arctic greening W. Shijin & P. Xiaoqing 10.1016/j.catena.2023.107209
- First Quantification of the Permafrost Heat Sink in the Earth's Climate System J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1029/2022GL102053
- Thawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination M. Langer et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-37276-4
- Continental heat storage: contributions from the ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing F. Cuesta-Valero et al. 10.5194/esd-14-609-2023
- Simulated methane emissions from Arctic ponds are highly sensitive to warming Z. Rehder et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023
6 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Multisource Synthesized Inventory of CRitical Infrastructure and HUman-Impacted Areas in AlaSka (SIRIUS) S. Kaiser et al. 10.5194/essd-16-3719-2024
- Sustainable Strategies to Current Conditions and Climate Change at U.S. Military Bases and Other Nations in the Arctic Region: A 20-Year Comparative Review V. Kaushal & A. Kashyap 10.3390/cli12110177
- Trends and classification of aerosol observed from MODIS sensor over Northern Europe and the Arctic K. Han et al. 10.1016/j.apr.2024.102329
- Modeling of maximum runoff characteristics of small rivers in the mountain permafrost zone O. Zhunusova et al. 10.7256/2453-8922.2024.4.72657
- A new approach for evaluating regional permafrost changes: A case study in the Hoh Xil on the interior Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau Y. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.005
- Modeling of maximum runoff characteristics of small rivers in the mountain permafrost zone O. Zhunusova et al. 10.7256/2453-8922.2025.1.72657
7 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Biogeochemical River Runoff Drives Intense Coastal Arctic Ocean CO2 Outgassing C. Bertin et al. 10.1029/2022GL102377
- Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer B. Groenke et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023
- Permafrost degradation services for Arctic greening W. Shijin & P. Xiaoqing 10.1016/j.catena.2023.107209
- First Quantification of the Permafrost Heat Sink in the Earth's Climate System J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1029/2022GL102053
- Thawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination M. Langer et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-37276-4
- Continental heat storage: contributions from the ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing F. Cuesta-Valero et al. 10.5194/esd-14-609-2023
- Simulated methane emissions from Arctic ponds are highly sensitive to warming Z. Rehder et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023
Latest update: 04 Feb 2025
Short summary
Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia, we find that post-industrialization permafrost warming has three "hotspots" in NE Canada, N Alaska, and W Siberia. The extent of near-surface permafrost has decreased substantially since 1850, with the largest area losses occurring in the last 50 years. The simulations also show that volcanic eruptions have in some cases counteracted the loss of near-surface permafrost for a few decades.
Using a model that can simulate the evolution of Arctic permafrost over centuries to millennia,...
