Articles | Volume 15, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5601-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5601-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A probabilistic model for fracture events of Petermann ice islands under the influence of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of
Newfoundland, St. John's, NL A1B 3X5, Canada
Ian D. Turnbull
Ice Engineering, C-CORE, St. John's, NL A1B 3X5, Canada
Rocky S. Taylor
Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of
Newfoundland, St. John's, NL A1B 3X5, Canada
Derek Mueller
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton
University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
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Arctic glaciers and ice shelves are retreating due to warmer oceans, but the link between ocean warming and ice loss is complex. We used a numerical model to study these processes in Milne Fiord, a unique site with an ice shelf and a tidewater glacier. Our results show that submarine melting is an important thinning mechanism, and that glacier retreat will continue for decades. This research highlights the ongoing and future changes in Arctic ice structures.
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The Cryosphere, 18, 1105–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1105-2024, 2024
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Ice shelves are a key control on Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. We examine the Nansen Ice Shelf in East Antarctica using a combination of field-based and satellite data. We find the basal topography of the ice shelf is highly variable, only partially visible in satellite datasets. We also find that the thinnest region of the ice shelf is altered over time by ice flow rates and ocean melting. These processes can cause fractures to form that eventually result in large calving events.
Anna J. Crawford, Derek Mueller, Gregory Crocker, Laurent Mingo, Luc Desjardins, Dany Dumont, and Marcel Babin
The Cryosphere, 14, 1067–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1067-2020, 2020
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Large tabular icebergs (
ice islands) are symbols of climate change as well as marine hazards. We measured thickness along radar transects over two visits to a 14 km2 Arctic ice island and left automated equipment to monitor surface ablation and thickness over 1 year. We assess variation in thinning rates and calibrate an ice–ocean melt model with field data. Our work contributes to understanding ice island deterioration via logistically complex fieldwork in a remote environment.
Andrew K. Hamilton, Bernard E. Laval, Derek R. Mueller, Warwick F. Vincent, and Luke Copland
The Cryosphere, 11, 2189–2211, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2189-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2189-2017, 2017
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Meltwater runoff trapped by an ice shelf can create a freshwater lake floating directly on seawater. We show that the depth of the freshwater–seawater interface varies substantially due to changes in meltwater inflow and drainage under the ice shelf. By accounting for seasonality, the interface depth can be used to monitor long-term changes in the thickness of ice shelves. We show that the Milne Ice Shelf, Ellesmere Island, was stable before 2004, after which time the ice shelf thinned rapidly.
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Short summary
Using the reanalysis datasets and the Canadian Ice Island Drift, Deterioration and Detection database, a probabilistic model was developed to quantify ice island fracture probability under various atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The model identified water temperature as the most dominant variable behind ice island fracture events, while ocean currents played a minor role. The developed model offers a predictive capability and could be of particular interest to offshore and marine activities.
Using the reanalysis datasets and the Canadian Ice Island Drift, Deterioration and Detection...