Articles | Volume 15, issue 12
Research article
10 Dec 2021
Research article |  | 10 Dec 2021

A probabilistic model for fracture events of Petermann ice islands under the influence of atmospheric and oceanic conditions

Reza Zeinali-Torbati, Ian D. Turnbull, Rocky S. Taylor, and Derek Mueller


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Short summary
Using the reanalysis datasets and the Canadian Ice Island Drift, Deterioration and Detection database, a probabilistic model was developed to quantify ice island fracture probability under various atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The model identified water temperature as the most dominant variable behind ice island fracture events, while ocean currents played a minor role. The developed model offers a predictive capability and could be of particular interest to offshore and marine activities.