Articles | Volume 15, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Oct 2021
Research article |
| 06 Oct 2021
| 06 Oct 2021
Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica
Emily A. Hill
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Sebastian H. R. Rosier
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Matthew Collins
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application F. Turner et al. 10.1029/2023EF003550
- Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise J. Sutter et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w
- How Does the Ocean Melt Antarctic Ice Shelves? M. Rosevear et al. 10.1146/annurev-marine-040323-074354
- The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica J. Barnes & G. Gudmundsson 10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022
- The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction E. Jager et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
- Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level A. Aschwanden et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
- Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation E. Jager et al. 10.1017/jog.2024.10
- Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt S. Jantre et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024
- A framework for time-dependent ice sheet uncertainty quantification, applied to three West Antarctic ice streams B. Recinos et al. 10.5194/tc-17-4241-2023
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. 10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
- Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica A. Johnson et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.10
- Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years J. Jordan et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2
- An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change J. Jakeman et al. 10.5194/esd-16-513-2025
- An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves C. Burgard et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022
- Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet E. Hill et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8
- What Determines the Shape of a Pine‐Island‐Like Ice Shelf? Y. Nakayama et al. 10.1029/2022GL101272
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application F. Turner et al. 10.1029/2023EF003550
- Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise J. Sutter et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01738-w
- How Does the Ocean Melt Antarctic Ice Shelves? M. Rosevear et al. 10.1146/annurev-marine-040323-074354
- The predictive power of ice sheet models and the regional sensitivity of ice loss to basal sliding parameterisations: a case study of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica J. Barnes & G. Gudmundsson 10.5194/tc-16-4291-2022
- The future of Upernavik Isstrøm through the ISMIP6 framework: sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration of ensemble prediction E. Jager et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5519-2024
- Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level A. Aschwanden et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
- Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation E. Jager et al. 10.1017/jog.2024.10
- Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt S. Jantre et al. 10.5194/tc-18-5207-2024
- A framework for time-dependent ice sheet uncertainty quantification, applied to three West Antarctic ice streams B. Recinos et al. 10.5194/tc-17-4241-2023
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. 10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
- Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica A. Johnson et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.10
- Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years J. Jordan et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2
- An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change J. Jakeman et al. 10.5194/esd-16-513-2025
- An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves C. Burgard et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022
- Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet E. Hill et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8
- What Determines the Shape of a Pine‐Island‐Like Ice Shelf? Y. Nakayama et al. 10.1029/2022GL101272
Latest update: 18 Jul 2025
Short summary
Using an ice flow model and uncertainty quantification methods, we provide probabilistic projections of future sea level rise from the Filchner–Ronne region of Antarctica. We find that it is most likely that this region will contribute negatively to sea level rise over the next 300 years, largely as a result of increased surface mass balance. We identify parameters controlling ice shelf melt and snowfall contribute most to uncertainties in projections.
Using an ice flow model and uncertainty quantification methods, we provide probabilistic...
