Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1567-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Mar 2021
Research article |
| 29 Mar 2021
| 29 Mar 2021
Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada
School for Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser
University, Burnaby, V5T 2P9, Canada
Bret Shandro
School for Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser
University, Burnaby, V5T 2P9, Canada
6 Point Engineering and Avalanche Consulting, Nelson, V1L 4H5, Canada
Patrick Mair
Dept. Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Related authors
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, Roger Atkins, Patrick Mair, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-147, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We develop decision support tools to assist professional ski guides in determining safe terrain each day based on current conditions. To understand the decision-making process we collaborate with professional guides and build three unique models to predict their decisions. The models accurately capture the real world decision-making outcomes in 85–93 % of cases. Our conclusions focus on strengths and weaknesses of each model and discuss ramifications for practical applications in ski guiding.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Simon Horton, Florian Herla, and Pascal Haegeli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1609, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a method for avalanche forecasters to analyze patterns in snowpack model simulations. It uses fuzzy clustering to group small regions into larger forecast areas based on snow characteristics, location, and time. Tested in the Columbia Mountains during winter 2022–23, it accurately matched real forecast regions and identified major avalanche hazard patterns. This approach simplifies complex model outputs, helping forecasters make informed decisions.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-871, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a spatial framework for extracting information about avalanche problems from detailed snowpack simulations and compare the numerical results against operational assessments from avalanche forecasters. Despite good aggreement in seasonal summary statistics, a comparison of daily assessments revealed considerable differences while it remained unclear which data source represented reality best. We discuss how snowpack simulations can add value to the forecasting process.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Simon Horton and Pascal Haegeli
The Cryosphere, 16, 3393–3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack models can help avalanche forecasters but are difficult to verify. We present a method for evaluating the accuracy of simulated snow profiles using readily available observations of snow depth. This method could be easily applied to understand the representativeness of available observations, the agreement between modelled and observed snow depths, and the implications for interpreting avalanche conditions.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
The Cryosphere, 16, 3149–3162, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3149-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3149-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present an averaging algorithm for multidimensional snow stratigraphy profiles that elicits the predominant snow layering among large numbers of profiles and allows for compiling of informative summary statistics and distributions of snowpack layer properties. This creates new opportunities for presenting and analyzing operational snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting and may inspire new ways of processing profiles and time series in other geophysical contexts.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3219–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche warning services publish condition reports to help backcountry recreationists make informed decisions about when and where to travel in avalanche terrain. We tested how different graphic representations of terrain information can affect users’ ability to interpret and apply the provided information. Our study shows that a combined presentation of aspect and elevation information is the most effective. These results can be used to improve avalanche risk communication products.
Florian Herla, Simon Horton, Patrick Mair, and Pascal Haegeli
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 239–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-239-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The adoption of snowpack models in support of avalanche forecasting has been limited. To promote their operational application, we present a numerical method for processing multivariate snow stratigraphy profiles of mixed data types. Our algorithm enables applications like dynamical grouping and summarizing of model simulations, model evaluation, and data assimilation. By emulating the human analysis process, our approach will allow forecasters to familiarly interact with snowpack simulations.
Simon Horton, Moses Towell, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3551–3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate patterns in how avalanche forecasters characterize snow avalanche hazard with avalanche problem types. Decision tree analysis was used to investigate both physical influences based on weather and on snowpack variables and operational practices. The results highlight challenges with developing decision aids based on previous hazard assessments.
Simon Horton, Stan Nowak, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1557–1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1557-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1557-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Numeric snowpack models currently offer limited value to operational avalanche forecasters. To improve the relevance and interpretability of model data, we introduce and discuss visualization principles that map model data into visual representations that can inform avalanche hazard assessments.
Reto Sterchi, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2011–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2011-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2011-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mechanized skiing operations use an established process to select skiing terrain with a low risk level. However, the relationship between appropriate skiing terrain and avalanche conditions has only received limited research attention. Our study examines this relationship numerically for the first time and shows the effects of avalanche hazard, previous skiing, and previous acceptability on different types of skiing terrain and offers the foundation to develop evidence-based decision tools.
Reto Sterchi and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 269–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used a revealed preference approach and identified patterns in risk management decisions of mechanized skiing operations. Our results show that terrain choices of experienced guides depend on a much broader set of factors beyond just the avalanche hazard, including skiing experience or accessibility due to weather. The identified high-resolution ski run hierarchies provide new opportunities for examining professional avalanche risk management practices and developing meaningful decision aids.
Bret Shandro and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1141–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1141-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
While the concept of snow and avalanche climates is widely used to describe the general nature of avalanche hazard, no research has described the hazard character of avalanche climates in detail. We use Canadian avalanche bulletin data that use the conceptual model of avalanche hazard from 2009/2010 to 2016/2017 to identify common hazard situations and calculate their seasonal prevalence. Our results provide detailed insights into the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, Roger Atkins, Patrick Mair, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-147, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We develop decision support tools to assist professional ski guides in determining safe terrain each day based on current conditions. To understand the decision-making process we collaborate with professional guides and build three unique models to predict their decisions. The models accurately capture the real world decision-making outcomes in 85–93 % of cases. Our conclusions focus on strengths and weaknesses of each model and discuss ramifications for practical applications in ski guiding.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2727–2756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2727-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack simulations are increasingly employed by avalanche warning services to inform about critical avalanche layers buried in the snowpack. However, validity concerns limit their operational value. We present methods that enable meaningful comparisons between snowpack simulations and regional assessments of avalanche forecasters to quantify the performance of the Canadian weather and snowpack model chain to represent thin critical avalanche layers on a large scale and in real time.
Simon Horton, Florian Herla, and Pascal Haegeli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1609, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a method for avalanche forecasters to analyze patterns in snowpack model simulations. It uses fuzzy clustering to group small regions into larger forecast areas based on snow characteristics, location, and time. Tested in the Columbia Mountains during winter 2022–23, it accurately matched real forecast regions and identified major avalanche hazard patterns. This approach simplifies complex model outputs, helping forecasters make informed decisions.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, Simon Horton, and Patrick Mair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-871, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a spatial framework for extracting information about avalanche problems from detailed snowpack simulations and compare the numerical results against operational assessments from avalanche forecasters. Despite good aggreement in seasonal summary statistics, a comparison of daily assessments revealed considerable differences while it remained unclear which data source represented reality best. We discuss how snowpack simulations can add value to the forecasting process.
John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, and Grant Statham
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 947–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-947-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The research validates and optimizes an automated approach for creating classified snow avalanche terrain maps using open-source geospatial modeling tools. Validation is based on avalanche-expert-based maps for two study areas. Our results show that automated maps have an overall accuracy equivalent to the average accuracy of three human maps. Automated mapping requires a fraction of the time and cost of traditional methods and opens the door for large-scale mapping of mountainous terrain.
Abby Morgan, Pascal Haegeli, Henry Finn, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1719–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1719-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The avalanche danger scale is a critical component for communicating the severity of avalanche hazard conditions to the public. We examine how backcountry recreationists in North America understand and use the danger scale for planning trips into the backcountry. Our results provide an important user perspective on the strengths and weaknesses of the existing scale and highlight opportunities for future improvements.
John Sykes, Pascal Haegeli, and Yves Bühler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3247–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Automated snow avalanche terrain mapping provides an efficient method for large-scale assessment of avalanche hazards, which informs risk management decisions for transportation and recreation. This research reduces the cost of developing avalanche terrain maps by using satellite imagery and open-source software as well as improving performance in forested terrain. The research relies on local expertise to evaluate accuracy, so the methods are broadly applicable in mountainous regions worldwide.
Simon Horton and Pascal Haegeli
The Cryosphere, 16, 3393–3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack models can help avalanche forecasters but are difficult to verify. We present a method for evaluating the accuracy of simulated snow profiles using readily available observations of snow depth. This method could be easily applied to understand the representativeness of available observations, the agreement between modelled and observed snow depths, and the implications for interpreting avalanche conditions.
Florian Herla, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
The Cryosphere, 16, 3149–3162, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3149-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3149-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present an averaging algorithm for multidimensional snow stratigraphy profiles that elicits the predominant snow layering among large numbers of profiles and allows for compiling of informative summary statistics and distributions of snowpack layer properties. This creates new opportunities for presenting and analyzing operational snowpack simulations in support of avalanche forecasting and may inspire new ways of processing profiles and time series in other geophysical contexts.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1973–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche bulletins include travel and terrain statements to provide recreationists with tangible guidance about how to apply the hazard information. We examined which bulletin users pay attention to these statements, what determines their usefulness, and how they could be improved. Our study shows that reducing jargon and adding simple explanations can significantly improve the usefulness of the statements for users with lower levels of avalanche awareness education who depend on this advice.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Kathryn C. Fisher, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3219–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3219-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanche warning services publish condition reports to help backcountry recreationists make informed decisions about when and where to travel in avalanche terrain. We tested how different graphic representations of terrain information can affect users’ ability to interpret and apply the provided information. Our study shows that a combined presentation of aspect and elevation information is the most effective. These results can be used to improve avalanche risk communication products.
Florian Herla, Simon Horton, Patrick Mair, and Pascal Haegeli
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 239–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-239-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The adoption of snowpack models in support of avalanche forecasting has been limited. To promote their operational application, we present a numerical method for processing multivariate snow stratigraphy profiles of mixed data types. Our algorithm enables applications like dynamical grouping and summarizing of model simulations, model evaluation, and data assimilation. By emulating the human analysis process, our approach will allow forecasters to familiarly interact with snowpack simulations.
Simon Horton, Moses Towell, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3551–3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate patterns in how avalanche forecasters characterize snow avalanche hazard with avalanche problem types. Decision tree analysis was used to investigate both physical influences based on weather and on snowpack variables and operational practices. The results highlight challenges with developing decision aids based on previous hazard assessments.
Simon Horton, Stan Nowak, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1557–1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1557-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1557-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Numeric snowpack models currently offer limited value to operational avalanche forecasters. To improve the relevance and interpretability of model data, we introduce and discuss visualization principles that map model data into visual representations that can inform avalanche hazard assessments.
Reto Sterchi, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2011–2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2011-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2011-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mechanized skiing operations use an established process to select skiing terrain with a low risk level. However, the relationship between appropriate skiing terrain and avalanche conditions has only received limited research attention. Our study examines this relationship numerically for the first time and shows the effects of avalanche hazard, previous skiing, and previous acceptability on different types of skiing terrain and offers the foundation to develop evidence-based decision tools.
Reto Sterchi and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 269–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-269-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We used a revealed preference approach and identified patterns in risk management decisions of mechanized skiing operations. Our results show that terrain choices of experienced guides depend on a much broader set of factors beyond just the avalanche hazard, including skiing experience or accessibility due to weather. The identified high-resolution ski run hierarchies provide new opportunities for examining professional avalanche risk management practices and developing meaningful decision aids.
Bret Shandro and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1141–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1141-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
While the concept of snow and avalanche climates is widely used to describe the general nature of avalanche hazard, no research has described the hazard character of avalanche climates in detail. We use Canadian avalanche bulletin data that use the conceptual model of avalanche hazard from 2009/2010 to 2016/2017 to identify common hazard situations and calculate their seasonal prevalence. Our results provide detailed insights into the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.
Related subject area
Discipline: Snow | Subject: Natural Hazards
Interactive snow avalanche segmentation from webcam imagery: results, potential, and limitations
Changes in snow avalanche activity in response to climate warming in the Swiss Alps
Snow mechanical property variability at the slope scale – implication for snow mechanical modelling
Combining modelled snowpack stability with machine learning to predict avalanche activity
Can Saharan dust deposition impact snowpack stability in the French Alps?
A closed-form model for layered snow slabs
A random forest model to assess snow instability from simulated snow stratigraphy
Using snow depth observations to provide insight into the quality of snowpack simulations for regional-scale avalanche forecasting
Snow Avalanche Frequency Estimation (SAFE): 32 years of monitoring remote avalanche depositional zones in high mountains of Afghanistan
Brief communication: Weak control of snow avalanche deposit volumes by avalanche path morphology
Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019
Dynamic crack propagation in weak snowpack layers: insights from high-resolution, high-speed photography
Avalanche danger level characteristics from field observations of snow instability
On the importance of snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size in assessing the avalanche danger level
The mechanical origin of snow avalanche dynamics and flow regime transitions
On the relation between avalanche occurrence and avalanche danger level
Validating modeled critical crack length for crack propagation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK
Where are the avalanches? Rapid SPOT6 satellite data acquisition to map an extreme avalanche period over the Swiss Alps
Cold-to-warm flow regime transition in snow avalanches
Elisabeth D. Hafner, Theodora Kontogianni, Rodrigo Caye Daudt, Lucien Oberson, Jan Dirk Wegner, Konrad Schindler, and Yves Bühler
The Cryosphere, 18, 3807–3823, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3807-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3807-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For many safety-related applications such as road management, well-documented avalanches are important. To enlarge the information, webcams may be used. We propose supporting the mapping of avalanches from webcams with a machine learning model that interactively works together with the human. Relying on that model, there is a 90% saving of time compared to the "traditional" mapping. This gives a better base for safety-critical decisions and planning in avalanche-prone mountain regions.
Stephanie Mayer, Martin Hendrick, Adrien Michel, Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Heini Wernli, and Alec van Herwijnen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1026, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the impact of climate change on snow avalanche activity is crucial for safeguarding lives and infrastructure. Here, we project changes in avalanche activity in the Swiss Alps throughout the 21st century. Our findings reveal elevation-dependent patterns of change, indicating a decrease in dry-snow avalanches alongside an increase in wet-snow avalanches at elevations above the current tree line. These results underscore the necessity to revisit measures for avalanche risk mitigation.
Francis Meloche, Francis Gauthier, and Alexandre Langlois
The Cryosphere, 18, 1359–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches are a dangerous natural hazard. Backcountry recreationists and avalanche practitioners try to predict avalanche hazard based on the stability of snow cover. However, snow cover is variable in space, and snow stability observations can vary within several meters. We measure the snow stability several times on a small slope to create high-resolution maps of snow cover stability. These results help us to understand the snow variation for scientists and practitioners.
Léo Viallon-Galinier, Pascal Hagenmuller, and Nicolas Eckert
The Cryosphere, 17, 2245–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Avalanches are a significant issue in mountain areas where they threaten recreationists and human infrastructure. Assessments of avalanche hazards and the related risks are therefore an important challenge for local authorities. Meteorological and snow cover simulations are thus important to support operational forecasting. In this study we combine it with mechanical analysis of snow profiles and find that observed avalanche data improve avalanche activity prediction through statistical methods.
Oscar Dick, Léo Viallon-Galinier, François Tuzet, Pascal Hagenmuller, Mathieu Fructus, Benjamin Reuter, Matthieu Lafaysse, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 17, 1755–1773, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1755-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Saharan dust deposition can drastically change the snow color, turning mountain landscapes into sepia scenes. Dust increases the absorption of solar energy by the snow cover and thus modifies the snow evolution and potentially the avalanche risk. Here we show that dust can lead to increased or decreased snowpack stability depending on the snow and meteorological conditions after the deposition event. We also show that wet-snow avalanches happen earlier in the season due to the presence of dust.
Philipp Weißgraeber and Philipp L. Rosendahl
The Cryosphere, 17, 1475–1496, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The work presents a mathematical model that calculates the behavior of layered snow covers in response to loadings. The information is necessary to predict the formation of snow slab avalanches. While sophisticated computer simulations may achieve the same goal, they can require weeks to run. By using mathematical simplifications commonly used by structural engineers, the present model can provide hazard assessments in milliseconds, even for snowpacks with many layers of different types of snow.
Stephanie Mayer, Alec van Herwijnen, Frank Techel, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 16, 4593–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4593-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Information on snow instability is crucial for avalanche forecasting. We introduce a novel machine-learning-based method to assess snow instability from snow stratigraphy simulated with the snow cover model SNOWPACK. To develop the model, we compared observed and simulated snow profiles. Our model provides a probability of instability for every layer of a simulated snow profile, which allows detection of the weakest layer and assessment of its degree of instability with one single index.
Simon Horton and Pascal Haegeli
The Cryosphere, 16, 3393–3411, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snowpack models can help avalanche forecasters but are difficult to verify. We present a method for evaluating the accuracy of simulated snow profiles using readily available observations of snow depth. This method could be easily applied to understand the representativeness of available observations, the agreement between modelled and observed snow depths, and the implications for interpreting avalanche conditions.
Arnaud Caiserman, Roy C. Sidle, and Deo Raj Gurung
The Cryosphere, 16, 3295–3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3295-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3295-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches cause considerable material and human damage in all mountain regions of the world. We present the first model to automatically inventory avalanche deposits at the scale of a catchment area – here the Amu Panj in Afghanistan – every year since 1990. This model called Snow Avalanche Frequency Estimation (SAFE) is available online on the Google Engine. SAFE has been designed to be simple and universal to use. Nearly 810 000 avalanches were detected over the 32 years studied.
Hippolyte Kern, Nicolas Eckert, Vincent Jomelli, Delphine Grancher, Michael Deschatres, and Gilles Arnaud-Fassetta
The Cryosphere, 15, 4845–4852, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches are a major component of the mountain cryosphere that often put people, settlements, and infrastructures at risk. This study investigated avalanche path morphological factors controlling snow deposit volumes, a critical aspect of snow avalanche dynamics that remains poorly known. Different statistical techniques show a slight but significant link between deposit volumes and avalanche path morphology.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
Bastian Bergfeld, Alec van Herwijnen, Benjamin Reuter, Grégoire Bobillier, Jürg Dual, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 15, 3539–3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3539-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The modern picture of the snow slab avalanche release process involves a
dynamic crack propagation phasein which a whole slope becomes detached. The present work contains the first field methodology which provides the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to study this phase. We demonstrate the versatile capabilities and accuracy of our method by revealing intricate dynamics and present how to determine relevant characteristics of crack propagation such as crack speed.
Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Benjamin Reuter, and Frank Techel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3293–3315, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3293-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches threaten people and infrastructure in snow-covered mountain regions. To mitigate the effects of avalanches, warnings are issued by public forecasting services. Presently, the five danger levels are described in qualitative terms. We aim to characterize the avalanche danger levels based on expert field observations of snow instability. Our findings contribute to an evidence-based description of danger levels and to improve consistency and accuracy of avalanche forecasts.
Frank Techel, Karsten Müller, and Jürg Schweizer
The Cryosphere, 14, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3503-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Exploring a large data set of snow stability tests and avalanche observations, we quantitatively describe the three key elements that characterize avalanche danger: snowpack stability, the frequency distribution of snowpack stability, and avalanche size. The findings will aid in refining the definitions of the avalanche danger scale and in fostering its consistent usage.
Xingyue Li, Betty Sovilla, Chenfanfu Jiang, and Johan Gaume
The Cryosphere, 14, 3381–3398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3381-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This numerical study investigates how different types of snow avalanches behave, how key factors affect their dynamics and flow regime transitions, and what are the underpinning rules. According to the unified trends obtained from the simulations, we are able to quantify the complex interplay between bed friction, slope geometry and snow mechanical properties (cohesion and friction) on the maximum velocity, runout distance and deposit height of the avalanches.
Jürg Schweizer, Christoph Mitterer, Frank Techel, Andreas Stoffel, and Benjamin Reuter
The Cryosphere, 14, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-737-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches represent a major natural hazard in seasonally snow-covered mountain regions around the world. To avoid periods and locations of high hazard, avalanche warnings are issued by public authorities. In these bulletins, the hazard is characterized by a danger level. Since the danger levels are not well defined, we analyzed a large data set of avalanches to improve the description. Our findings show discrepancies in present usage of the danger scale and show ways to improve the scale.
Bettina Richter, Jürg Schweizer, Mathias W. Rotach, and Alec van Herwijnen
The Cryosphere, 13, 3353–3366, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3353-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Information on snow stability is important for avalanche forecasting. To improve the stability estimation in the snow cover model SNOWPACK, we suggested an improved parameterization for the critical crack length. We compared 3 years of field data to SNOWPACK simulations. The match between observed and modeled critical crack lengths greatly improved, and critical weak layers appear more prominently in the modeled vertical profile of critical crack length.
Yves Bühler, Elisabeth D. Hafner, Benjamin Zweifel, Mathias Zesiger, and Holger Heisig
The Cryosphere, 13, 3225–3238, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3225-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3225-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We manually map 18 737 avalanche outlines based on SPOT6 optical satellite imagery acquired in January 2018. This is the most complete and accurate avalanche documentation of a large avalanche period covering a big part of the Swiss Alps. This unique dataset can be applied for the validation of other remote-sensing-based avalanche-mapping procedures and for updating avalanche databases to improve hazard maps.
Anselm Köhler, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Riccardo Scandroglio, Mathias Bavay, Jim McElwaine, and Betty Sovilla
The Cryosphere, 12, 3759–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Snow avalanches show complicated flow behaviour, characterized by several flow regimes which coexist in one avalanche. In this work, we analyse flow regime transitions where a powder snow avalanche transforms into a plug flow avalanche by incorporating warm snow due to entrainment. Prediction of such a transition is very important for hazard mitigation, as the efficiency of protection dams are strongly dependent on the flow regime, and our results should be incorporated into avalanche models.
Cited articles
Atkins, R.: An avalanche characterization checklist for backcountry travel
decisions, in: Proceedings of 2004 International Snow Science Workshop, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, 462–468, available at: http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item/1118 (last access: 24 March 2021), 19–24 September 2004.
Bellaire, S., Jamieson, J. B., Thumlert, S., Goodrich, J., and Statham, G.:
Analysis of long-term weather, snow and avalanche data at Glacier National
Park, B. C., Canada, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 121,
118–125, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2015.10.010, 2016.
Bjerknes, J.: Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction, Adv. Geophys., 10, 1–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(08)60005-9, 1964.
Bonsal, B. R., Shabbar, A., and Higuchi, K.: Impacts of low frequency
variability modes on Canadian winter temperature, Int. J. Climatol., 21,
95–108, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.590, 2001.
Brooks, M. E., Kristensen, K., van Benthem, K. J., Magnusson, A., Berg, C.
W., Niels, A., Skaug, H. J., Mächler, M., and Bolker, B. M.: glmmTMB
Balances Speed and Flexibility Among Packages for Zero-inflated Generalized
Linear Mixed Modeling, R J., 9, 378–400, https://doi.org/10.32614/RJ-2017-066,
2017.
Brown, R. D. and Goodison, B. E.: Interannual variability in reconstructed
Canadian snow cover, 1915–1992, J. Climate, 9, 1299–1318, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1299:IVIRCS>2.0.CO;2, 1996.
Canadian Avalanche Association: Observation Guidelines and Recording
Standards for Weather, Snowpack, and Avalanches, Canadian Avalanche Association, Revelstoke, British Columbia, Canada, Canada, 78 pp., 2016.
Clark, T.: Exploring the link between the Conceptual Model of Avalanche
Hazard and the North American Public Avalanche Danger Scale, MRM Thesis,
School for Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University,
Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada, 2019.
Claus, B. R., Russell, S. O., and Schaerer, P.: Variation of ground snow
loads with elevation in Southern British Columbia, Can. J. Civil. Eng., 11,
480-493, https://doi.org/10.1139/l84-068, 1984.
Cribari-Neto, F. and Zeileis, A.: Beta Regression in R, J. Stat. Softw.,
34, 24 pp., available at: https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/view/v034i02 (last access: 24 March 2021), 2010.
Dunn, P. K. and Smyth, G. K.: Randomized Quantile Residuals,
J. Comput. Graph. Stat., 5, 236–244, https://doi.org/10.1080/10618600.1996.10474708, 1996.
Fitzharris, B. B.: A Climatology of Major Avalanche Winters in Western
Canada, Atmos. Ocean, 25, 115–136, 1987.
Fleming, S. W. and Dahlke, H. E.: Modulation of linear and nonlinear
hydroclimatic dynamics by mountain glaciers in Canada and Norway: Results
from information-theoretic polynomial selection, Can. Water Resour. J., 39,
324–341, https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2014.942164, 2014a.
Fleming, S. W. and Dahlke, H. E.: Parabolic northern-hemisphere river flow
teleconnections to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic
Oscillation, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 104007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104007, 2014b.
Fleming, S. W. and Whitfield, P. H.: Spatiotemporal mapping of ENSO and PDO
surface meteorological signals in British Columbia, Yukon, and southeast
Alaska, Atmos. Ocean, 48, 122–131, https://doi.org/10.3137/AO1107.2010, 2010.
Fleming, S. W., Moore, R. D., and Clarke, G. K. C.: Glacier-mediated
streamflow teleconnections to the Arctic Oscillation, Int. J. Climatol., 26,
619–636, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1273, 2006.
Fleming, S. W., Hood, E., Dahlke, H. E., and O'Neel, S.: Seasonal flows of
international British Columbia-Alaska rivers: The nonlinear influence of
ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns, Adv. Water Resour., 87, 42–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.10.007, 2016.
Fuentes-Franco, R., Giorgi, F., Coppola, E., and Kucharski, F.: The role of
ENSO and PDO in variability of winter precipitation over North America from
twenty first century CMIP5 projections, Clim. Dynam., 46, 3259–3277, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2767-y, 2016.
García-Sellés, C., Peña, J. C., Martí, G., Oller, P., and
Martínez, P.: WeMOI and NAOi influence on major avalanche activity in
the Eastern Pyrenees, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 64, 137–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2010.08.003, 2010.
Gobena, A. K., Weber, F. A., and Fleming, S. W.: The Role of Large-Scale
Climate Modes in Regional Streamflow Variability and Implications for Water
Supply Forecasting: A Case Study of the Canadian Columbia River Basin,
Atmos. Ocean, 51, 380–391, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2012.759899, 2013.
Haegeli, P. and McClung, D. M.: Expanding the snow climate classification
with avalanche relevant information – initial description of avalanche
winter regimes for south-western Canada, J. Glaciol., 53, 266–276, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756507782202801, 2007.
Haegeli, P., Atkins, R., and Klassen, K.: Decision making in avalanche
terrain – a field book for winter backcountry users, Canadian Avalanche
Centre, Revelstoke, British Columbia, Canada, 2010.
Haegeli, P., Mair, P., and Shandro, B.:
Using avalanche problems to examine the effect of large-scale atmosphere-ocean oscillations on avalanche hazard in western Canada, OSF, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/3WSC4, 2021.
Hartig, F.: DHARMa: Residual Diagnostics for Hierarchical (Multi-Level/Mixed) Regression Models, R package version 0.3.2.0., available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=DHARMa (last access: 24 March 2021), 2020.
Jamieson, J. B., Bellaire, S., and Sinickas, A.: Climate change and planning
for snow avalanches in transportation corridors in western Canada, Geo
Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, 2017.
Jin, J., Miller, N. L., Sorooshian, S., and Gao, X.: Relationship between
atmospheric circulation and snowpack in the western USA, Hydrol. Process.,
20, 753–767, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6126, 2006.
Johnston, K. S.: Estimating Extreme Snow Avalanche Runout for the Columbia
Mountains and Fernie Area of British Columbia, Canada, MSc Thesis,
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 2011.
Keylock, C.: The North Atlantic Oscillation and snow avalanching in Iceland,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1254, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002gl016272, 2003.
Kluver, D. and Leathers, D.: Regionalization of snowfall frequency and
trends over the contiguous United States, Int. J. Climatol., 35,
4348–4358, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4292, 2015.
LaChapelle, E. R.: The Fundamental Processes in Conventional Avalanche
Forecasting, J. Glaciol., 26, 75–84, 1980.
Lazar, B., Greene, E., and Birkeland, K.: Avalanche problems and public
advisories, The Avalanche Review, 31.2, 14–15, and 23, available at: https://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/s/TAR3202_LoRes.pdf (last access: 24 March 2021), 2012.
Leathers, D. J., Yarnal, B., and Palecki, M. A.: The Pacific/North American
Teleconnection Pattern and United States Climate – Part I: Regional
Temperature and Precipitation Associations, J. Climate, 4, 517–528, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0517:Tpatpa>2.0.Co;2, 1991.
Lenth, R.: Estimated Marginal Means, aka Least-Squares Means, R package version 1.4.3.01., available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=emmeans (last access: 24 March 2021), 2019.
L'Heureux, M. L., Tippett, M. K., Kumar, A., Butler, A. H., Ciasto, L. M.,
Ding, Q., Harnos, K. J., and Johnson, N. C.: Strong Relations Between ENSO
and the Arctic Oscillation in the North American Multimodel Ensemble,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11654–11662, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074854, 2017.
Lute, A. C. and Abatzoglou, J. T.: Role of extreme snowfall events in
interannual variability of snowfall accumulation in the western United
States, Water Resour. Res., 50, 2874–2888, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014465, 2014.
Mantua, N. J. and Hare, S. R.: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, J.
Oceanogr., 58, 35–44, https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1015820616384, 2002.
Mantua, N. J., Hare, S. R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M., and Francis, R. C.: A
Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 1069–1079, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
McAfee, S. A. and Wise, E. K.: Intra-seasonal and inter-decadal variability
in ENSO impacts on the Pacific Northwest, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 508–516, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4351, 2016.
McClung, D. M.: The elements of applied avalanche forecasting – Part I: The
human issues, Nat. Hazards, 25, 111–129, https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1015665432221, 2002.
McClung, D. M.: The effects of El Niño and La Niña on snow and
avalanche patterns in British Columbia, Canada, and central Chile, J.
Glaciol., 216, 783–792, https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J192, 2013.
McClung, D. M. and Schaerer, P. A.: The Avalanche Handbook, edn. 3, The
Mountaineers, Seattle, Washington, USA, 342 pp., 2006.
McPhaden, M. J., Zebiak, S. E., and Glantz, M. H.: ENSO as an Integrating
Concept in Earth Science, Science, 314, 1740–1745, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132588, 2006.
Moore, R. D. and McKendry, I. G.: Spring Snowpack Anomaly Patterns and
Winter Climatic Variability, British Columbia, Canada, Water Resour. Res.,
32, 623–632, https://doi.org/10.1029/95WR03640, 1996.
Moore, R. D., Fleming, S. W., Menounos, B., Wheate, R., Fountain, A., Stahl,
K., Holm, K., and Jakob, M.: Glacier change in western North America:
influences on hydrology, geomorphic hazards and water quality, Hydrol.
Process., 23, 42–61, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7162, 2009.
National Centers for Environmental Information: Teleconnections, available at:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/, last access: 30 May 2020.
Newman, M., Alexander, M. A., Ault, T. R., Cobb, K. M., Deser, C., Di Lorenzo, E., Mantua, N. J., Miller, A. J., Minobe, S., Nakamura, H.,
Schneider, N., Vimont, D. J., Phillips, A. S., Scott, J. D., and Smith, C.
A.: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited, J. Climate, 29, 4399–4427, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0508.1, 2016.
Physical Science Laboratory: Multivariate ENSO Index Version 2 (MEI.v2), available at:
https://www.psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/, last access: 30 May 2020.
R Core Team: R – A language and environment for statistical computing, R
Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2020.
Shabbar, A. and Khandekar, M.: The impact of El Nino-Southern oscillation
on the temperature field over Canada, Atmos. Ocean, 34, 401–416, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1996.9649570, 1996.
Shabbar, A. and Bonsal, B. R.: Associations between Low Frequency
Variability Modes and Winter Temperature Extremes in Canada, Atmos. Ocean,
42, 127–140, 2004.
Shabbar, A., Bonsal, B., and Khandekar, M.: Canadian Precipitation Patterns
Associated with the Southern Oscillation, J. Climate, 10, 3016–3027,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<3016:CPPAWT>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Shandro, B. and Haegeli, P.: Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1141–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1141-2018, 2018.
Sinickas, A., Jamieson, J. B., and Maes, M. A.: Snow avalanches in western
Canada: investigating change in occurrence rates and implications for risk
assessment and mitigation, Struct. Infrastruct. E., 12, 490–498, https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2015.1020495, 2016.
Smithson, M. and Verkuilen, J.: A better lemon squeezer? Maximum-likelihood
regression with beta-distributed dependent variables, Psychol. Med., 11, 54–71, https://doi.org/10.1037/1082-989X.11.1.54,
2006.
Stahl, K., Moore, R. D., and Mckendry, I. G.: The role of synoptic-scale
circulation in the linkage between large-scale ocean–atmosphere indices and
winter surface climate in British Columbia, Canada, Int. J. Climatol., 26,
541–560, 2006.
Statham, G., Haegeli, P., Greene, E., Birkeland, K. W., Israelson, C.,
Tremper, B., Stethem, C. J., McMahon, B., White, B., and Kelly, J.: A
conceptual model of avalanche hazard, Nat. Hazards, 90, 663–691, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3070-5, 2018a.
Statham, G., Holeczi, S., and Shandro, B.: Consistency and accuracy of
public avalanche forecasts in western Canada, in: Proceedings of the 2018 International Snow Science Workshop, Innsbruck, Austria, 1491–1495, available at: https://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item/2806 (last access: 24 March 2021), 7–12 October 2018b.
Thompson, D. W. J. and Wallace, J. M.: The Arctic oscillation signature in
the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 25, 1297–1300, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL00950, 1998.
Thumlert, S., Bellaire, S., and Jamieson, J. B.: Relating Avalanches to
Large-Scale Ocean – Atmospheric Oscillations, in: Proceedings of the 2014 International Snow Science Workshop, Banff, Alberta, Canada, 481–485, available at: http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item/2099 (last access: 24 March 2021), 28 September–3 October 2014.
Vincent, L. A., Zhang, X., Brown, R. D., Feng, Y., Mekis, E., Milewska, E.
J., Wan, H., and Wang, X. L.: Observed Trends in Canada's Climate and
Influence of Low-Frequency Variability Modes, J. Climate, 28, 4545–4560, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00697.1, 2015.
Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S.: Teleconnections in the Geopotential
Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter, Mon. Weather Rev., 109,
784–812, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2, 1981.
Whitfield, P. H., Moore, R. D., Fleming, S. W., and Zawadzki, A.: Pacific
Decadal Oscillation and the Hydroclimatology of Western Canada – Review and
Prospects, Can. Water Resour. J., 35, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.4296/cwrj3501001, 2010.
Wise, E. K.: Spatiotemporal variability of the precipitation dipole
transition zone in the western United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37,
L07706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL042193, 2010.
Wolter, K. and Timlin, M. S.: El Niño/Southern Oscillation behaviour
since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext),
Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1074–1087, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2336, 2011.
Wood, S. N.: Generalized Additive Models – An Introduction with R, edn. 2,
Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, Florida, USA, 2017.
Wu, A. and Hsieh, W. W.: The nonlinear Northern Hemisphere winter
atmospheric response to ENSO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L02203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018885, 2004.
Zhang, T., Hoell, A., Perlwitz, J., Eischeid, J., Murray, D., Hoerling, M.,
and Hamill, T. M.: Towards Probabilistic Multivariate ENSO Monitoring,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 10532–10540, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083946, 2019.
Zhao, H., Higuchi, K., Waller, J., Auld, H., and Mote, T.: The impacts of
the PNA and NAO on annual maximum snowpack over southern Canada during
1979–2009, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 388–395, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3431, 2013.
Short summary
Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern, and the Arctic Oscillation are known to substantially affect winter weather patterns in western Canada. Using avalanche problem information from public avalanche bulletins, this study presents a new approach for examining the effect of these atmospheric oscillations on the nature of avalanche hazard in western Canada.
Numerous large-scale atmosphere–ocean oscillations including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation,...
