Articles | Volume 10, issue 4
The Cryosphere, 10, 1631–1645, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016
The Cryosphere, 10, 1631–1645, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016
Research article
28 Jul 2016
Research article | 28 Jul 2016

Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations

Sebastian Bathiany et al.

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Short summary
We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible sea-ice loss, could be foreseen with statistical early warning signals. We assess this idea by using several models of different complexity. We find robust and consistent trends in variability that are not specific to the existence of a tipping point. While this makes an early warning impossible, it allows to estimate sea-ice variability from only short observational records or reconstructions.