Articles | Volume 10, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Jul 2016
Research article |
| 28 Jul 2016
Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations
Sebastian Bathiany
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6708 PB Wageningen, the Netherlands
Bregje van der Bolt
Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6708 PB Wageningen, the Netherlands
Mark S. Williamson
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Timothy M. Lenton
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Marten Scheffer
Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6708 PB Wageningen, the Netherlands
Egbert H. van Nes
Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6708 PB Wageningen, the Netherlands
Dirk Notz
Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models A. Keen et al. 10.5194/tc-15-951-2021
- Consistently Estimating Internal Climate Variability from Climate Model Simulations D. Olonscheck & D. Notz 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0428.1
- Cascading transitions in the climate system M. Dekker et al. 10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018
- Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World S. Bathiany et al. 10.1038/s41598-018-23377-4
- Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models J. Mioduszewski et al. 10.5194/tc-13-113-2019
- Climate reddening increases the chance of critical transitions B. van der Bolt et al. 10.1038/s41558-018-0160-7
- Less climatic resilience in the Arctic J. Overland 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100275
- Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems V. Dakos et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024
- Applying Complexity Theory to Interest Rates: Evidence of Critical Transitions in the Euro Area J. <!>van den End 10.2139/ssrn.3035291
- The Arctic sea ice extent change connected to Pacific decadal variability X. Yang et al. 10.5194/tc-14-693-2020
- Effects of noise correlation and imperfect data sampling on indicators of critical slowing down T. Kaur & P. Dutta 10.1007/s12080-022-00532-2
- Applying Complexity Theory to Interest Rates: Evidence of Critical Transitions in The Euro Area J. van den End 10.3790/ccm.52.1.1
- Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change S. Bathiany et al. 10.1093/climsys/dzw004
- Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability T. Lenton et al. 10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x
- Ecosystem Resilience Monitoring and Early Warning Using Earth Observation Data: Challenges and Outlook S. Bathiany et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09833-z
- Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems M. Williamson et al. 10.5194/esd-7-313-2016
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models A. Keen et al. 10.5194/tc-15-951-2021
- Consistently Estimating Internal Climate Variability from Climate Model Simulations D. Olonscheck & D. Notz 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0428.1
- Cascading transitions in the climate system M. Dekker et al. 10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018
- Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World S. Bathiany et al. 10.1038/s41598-018-23377-4
- Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models J. Mioduszewski et al. 10.5194/tc-13-113-2019
- Climate reddening increases the chance of critical transitions B. van der Bolt et al. 10.1038/s41558-018-0160-7
- Less climatic resilience in the Arctic J. Overland 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100275
- Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems V. Dakos et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024
- Applying Complexity Theory to Interest Rates: Evidence of Critical Transitions in the Euro Area J. <!>van den End 10.2139/ssrn.3035291
- The Arctic sea ice extent change connected to Pacific decadal variability X. Yang et al. 10.5194/tc-14-693-2020
- Effects of noise correlation and imperfect data sampling on indicators of critical slowing down T. Kaur & P. Dutta 10.1007/s12080-022-00532-2
- Applying Complexity Theory to Interest Rates: Evidence of Critical Transitions in The Euro Area J. van den End 10.3790/ccm.52.1.1
- Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change S. Bathiany et al. 10.1093/climsys/dzw004
- Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability T. Lenton et al. 10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x
- Ecosystem Resilience Monitoring and Early Warning Using Earth Observation Data: Challenges and Outlook S. Bathiany et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09833-z
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
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Latest update: 21 Nov 2024
Short summary
We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible sea-ice loss, could be foreseen with statistical early warning signals. We assess this idea by using several models of different complexity. We find robust and consistent trends in variability that are not specific to the existence of a tipping point. While this makes an early warning impossible, it allows to estimate sea-ice variability from only short observational records or reconstructions.
We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible...
