Modelling the temperature evolution of permafrost and seasonal frost in southern Norway during the 20th and 21st century

Abstract. A heat flow model was used to simulate both past and future ground temperatures of mountain permafrost in Southern Norway. A reconstructed air temperature series back to 1860 was used to evaluate the permafrost evolution since the end of the Little Ice Age in the region. The impact of a changing climate on discontinuous mountain permafrost until 2100 is predicted by using downscaled temperatures from an ensemble of downscaled climate models for the A1B scenario. From 13 borehole locations two consecutive years of ground temperature, air temperature and snow cover data are available for model calibration and validation. The boreholes are located at different elevations and in substrates having different thermal properties. With an increase of air temperature of ~+1.5 °C over 1860–2010 and an additional warming of +2.8 °C towards 2100 in air temperature, we simulate the evolution of ground temperatures for the borehole locations. According to model results, the active-layer thickness has increased since 1860 by about 0.5–5 m and >10 m for the sites Juvvass and Tron, respectively. The simulations also suggest that at an elevation of about 1900 m a.s.l. permafrost will degrade until the end of this century with a likelihood of 55–75% given the chosen A1B scenario.