Articles | Volume 8, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1347-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1347-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Jul 2014
Research article |
| 30 Jul 2014
Modelling the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since the last interglacial
M. N. A. Maris
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80005, 3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands
B. de Boer
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80005, 3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
S. R. M. Ligtenberg
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80005, 3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands
M. Crucifix
Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Place Louis Pasteur 3, SC10 – L4.03.08, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
W. J. van de Berg
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80005, 3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands
J. Oerlemans
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80005, 3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD
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The late Pleistocene glacial cycles are dominated by a 100-kyr periodicity, rather than other major astronomical periods like 19, 23, 41, or 400 kyr. Various models propose distinct mechanisms to explain this, but their diversity may obscure the key factor behind the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose a time-scale matching hypothesis, suggesting that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at ~100 kyr because its intrinsic timescale is closer to 100 kyr than to other periods.
Lilian Vanderveken and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2830, 2024
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Vegetation patterns in semi-arid regions arise from interactions between plants and environmental factors. This study uses a numerical model to explore how vegetation responds to changes in rainfall and random disturbances. We identify key timescales that influence resilience, showing that ecosystems rely on both stable and transitional states to adapt. These findings offer insights into the resilience mechanisms that help ecosystems maintain stability under environmental stress.
Victor Couplet, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2279, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2279, 2024
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We present SURFER v3.0, a simple climate model designed to estimate the impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions on global temperatures, sea levels, and ocean pH. We added new carbon cycle processes and calibrated the model to observations and results from more complex models, enabling use over time scales ranging from decades to millions of years. SURFER v3.0 is fast, transparent, and easy to use, making it an ideal tool for policy assessments and suitable for educational purposes.
Justin Gérard, Loïc Sablon, Jarno J. C. Huygh, Anne-Christine Da Silva, Alexandre Pohl, Christian Vérard, and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1983, 2024
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We used cGENIE, a climate model, to explore how changes in continental configuration, CO2 levels, and orbital configuration affect ocean oxygen levels during the Devonian period (419–359 million years ago). Key factors contributing to ocean anoxia were identified, highlighting the influence of continental configurations, atmospheric conditions, and orbital changes. Our findings offer new insights into the causes and prolonged durations of Devonian ocean anoxic events.
Justin Gérard and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 293–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-293-2024, 2024
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We used cGENIE, a climate model, to investigate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown under a warming scenario. We apply a diagnostic that was used in a previous study (Levang and Schmitt, 2020) to separate the temperature from salinity contribution to this slowdown. We find that, in our model, the initial slowdown of the AMOC was driven by temperature and that salinity takes the lead for the termination of the circulation.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 19, 2551–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023, 2023
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We investigated the different boundary conditions to allow ice sheet growth and ice sheet decline of the Antarctic ice sheet when it appeared ∼38–34 Myr ago. The thresholds for ice sheet growth and decline differ because of the different climatological conditions above an ice sheet (higher elevation and higher albedo) compared to a bare topography. We found that the ice–albedo feedback and the isostasy feedback respectively ease and delay the transition from a deglacial to glacial state.
Lilian Vanderveken, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 585–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-585-2023, 2023
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In semi-arid regions, hydric stress affects plant growth. In these conditions, vegetation patterns develop and effectively allow for vegetation to persist under low water input. The formation of patterns and the transition between patterns can be studied with small models taking the form of dynamical systems. Our study produces a full map of stable and unstable solutions in a canonical vegetation model and shows how they determine the transitions between different patterns.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 19, 1793–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, 2023
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Are phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate models physically similar to Nature? We demonstrated that though they may be very accurate in reproducing empirical time series, this is not sufficient to claim physical similarity with Nature until similarity parameters are considered. We suggest that the diagnostics of physical similarity should become a standard procedure before a phenomenological model can be utilized for interpretations of historical records or future predictions.
Marina Martínez Montero, Michel Crucifix, Victor Couplet, Nuria Brede, and Nicola Botta
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8059–8084, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022, 2022
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We present SURFER, a lightweight model that links CO2 emissions and geoengineering to ocean acidification and sea level rise from glaciers, ocean thermal expansion and Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The ice sheet module adequately describes the tipping points of both Greenland and Antarctica. SURFER is understandable, fast, accurate up to several thousands of years, capable of emulating results obtained by state of the art models and well suited for policy analyses.
Johannes Oerlemans, Jack Kohler, and Adrian Luckman
The Cryosphere, 16, 2115–2126, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2115-2022, 2022
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Tunabreen is a 26 km long tidewater glacier. It is the most frequently surging glacier in Svalbard, with four documented surges in the past 100 years. We have modelled this glacier to find out how it reacts to future climate change. Careful calibration was done against the observed length record for the past 100 years. For a 50 m increase in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) the length of the glacier will be shortened by 10 km after about 100 years.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6373–6401, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, 2021
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Ice sheets are an important component of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere through albedo variations and changes in the surface height. On very long timescales, it is impossible to directly couple ice sheet models with climate models and other techniques have to be used. Here we present a novel coupling method between ice sheets and the atmosphere by making use of an emulator to simulate ice sheet–climate interactions for several million years.
Johannes Oerlemans, Suryanarayanan Balasubramanian, Conradin Clavuot, and Felix Keller
The Cryosphere, 15, 3007–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3007-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3007-2021, 2021
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An ice stupa is a cone-like ice mass storing water in the form of ice. By sprinkling water on the cone during cold conditions an ice stupa can grow to achieve an appreciable mass (typically 1 × 106 kg) and release this in spring and summer in the form of meltwater. In Ladakh ice stupas are currently used more and more for irrigation purposes. We present a simple model with which the rate of growth and decay of a stupa can be calculated for given climatic conditions.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate here that a single physical phenomenon, specifically, a naturally changing balance between intensities of temperature advection and diffusion in the viscous ice media, may influence the entire spectrum of the Pleistocene variability from orbital to millennial timescales.
Baptiste Vandecrux, Ruth Mottram, Peter L. Langen, Robert S. Fausto, Martin Olesen, C. Max Stevens, Vincent Verjans, Amber Leeson, Stefan Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Sergey Marchenko, Ward van Pelt, Colin R. Meyer, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Achim Heilig, Samira Samimi, Shawn Marshall, Horst Machguth, Michael MacFerrin, Masashi Niwano, Olivia Miller, Clifford I. Voss, and Jason E. Box
The Cryosphere, 14, 3785–3810, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3785-2020, 2020
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In the vast interior of the Greenland ice sheet, snow accumulates into a thick and porous layer called firn. Each summer, the firn retains part of the meltwater generated at the surface and buffers sea-level rise. In this study, we compare nine firn models traditionally used to quantify this retention at four sites and evaluate their performance against a set of in situ observations. We highlight limitations of certain model designs and give perspectives for future model development.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 281–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, 2020
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Using the central theorem of dimensional analysis, the π theorem, we show that the relationship between the amplitude and duration of glacial cycles is governed by a property of scale invariance that does not depend on the physical nature of the underlying positive and negative feedbacks incorporated by the system. It thus turns out to be one of the most fundamental properties of the Pleistocene climate.
Tyler C. Sutterley, Thorsten Markus, Thomas A. Neumann, Michiel van den Broeke, J. Melchior van Wessem, and Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg
The Cryosphere, 13, 1801–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1801-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1801-2019, 2019
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Most of the Antarctic ice sheet is fringed by ice shelves, floating extensions of ice that help to modulate the flow of the glaciers that float into them. We use airborne laser altimetry data to measure changes in ice thickness of ice shelves around West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. Each of our target ice shelves is susceptible to short-term changes in ice thickness. The method developed here provides a framework for processing NASA ICESat-2 data over ice shelves.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky, Michel Crucifix, and Dmitry M. Volobuev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 257–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-257-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-257-2019, 2019
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We demonstrate here that nonlinear character of ice sheet dynamics, which was derived naturally from the conservation laws, is an effective means for propagating high-frequency forcing upscale.
Ludwig Schröder, Martin Horwath, Reinhard Dietrich, Veit Helm, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg
The Cryosphere, 13, 427–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-427-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-427-2019, 2019
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We developed an approach to combine measurements of seven satellite altimetry missions over the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our resulting monthly grids of elevation changes between 1978 and 2017 provide unprecedented details of the long-term and interannual variation. Derived mass changes agree well with contemporaneous data of surface mass balance and satellite gravimetry and show which regions were responsible for the significant accelerations of mass loss in recent years.
Sue Cook, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, and Richard Coleman
The Cryosphere, 12, 3853–3859, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3853-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3853-2018, 2018
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When the porous compacted snow layers on an ice shelf extend below sea level, seawater is able to infiltrate onto the shelf. Here it can affect measurements of ice shelf thickness by changing the average density and affect iceberg calving if the seawater enters fractures. Seawater infiltration has only been directly observed in a few locations around Antarctica. Using continent-wide geometry and snow density data we show that it may be more widespread than previously realised.
Johannes Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 12, 3001–3015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3001-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3001-2018, 2018
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Monacobreen is a 40 km long surge-type tidewater glacier in northern Spitsbergen. The front is retreating fast. Calculations with a glacier model predict that due to future climate warming this glacier will have lost 20 to 40 % of its volume by the year 2100. Because of the glacier's memory, much of the response will come after 2100, even if the climatic conditions would stabilize.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky, Michel Crucifix, and Dmitry M. Volobuev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1025–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1025-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1025-2018, 2018
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Using a dynamical climate model purely reduced from the conservation laws of ice-moving media, we show that ice-sheet physics coupled with a linear climate temperature feedback conceal enough dynamics to satisfactorily explain the system response over the full Pleistocene. There is no need, a priori, to call for a nonlinear response of, for example, the carbon cycle.
Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Brice P. Y. Noël, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1643–1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1643-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1643-2018, 2018
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Firn is the transitional product between fresh snow and glacier ice, and a 10-100 m thick layer covers the Greenland ice sheet. It has the capacity to store meltwater and thereby mitigate runoff to the ocean. Using a model and improved atmospheric forcing, we simulate firn density and temperature that agrees well with observations from firn cores. Especially in the regions with substantial melt, and therefore the most sensitive to a warming climate, the results improved significantly.
Jan Melchior van Wessem, Willem Jan van de Berg, Brice P. Y. Noël, Erik van Meijgaard, Charles Amory, Gerit Birnbaum, Constantijn L. Jakobs, Konstantin Krüger, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stef Lhermitte, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Brooke Medley, Carleen H. Reijmer, Kristof van Tricht, Luke D. Trusel, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Bert Wouters, Jan Wuite, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 12, 1479–1498, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018, 2018
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We present a detailed evaluation of the latest version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2 (1979-2016) over the Antarctic ice sheet. The model successfully reproduces the present-day climate and surface mass balance (SMB) when compared with an extensive set of observations and improves on previous estimates of the Antarctic climate and SMB.
This study shows that the latest version of RACMO2 can be used for high-resolution future projections over the AIS.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
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The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Guillaume Lenoir and Michel Crucifix
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 145–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-145-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-145-2018, 2018
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We develop a general framework for the frequency analysis of irregularly sampled time series. We also design a test of significance against a general background noise which encompasses the Gaussian white or red noise. Our results generalize and unify methods developed in the fields of geosciences, engineering, astronomy and astrophysics. All the analysis tools presented in this paper are available to the reader in the Python package WAVEPAL.
Guillaume Lenoir and Michel Crucifix
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 175–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-175-2018, 2018
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There is so far no general framework for handling the continuous wavelet transform when the time sampling is irregular. Here we provide such a framework with the Morlet wavelet, based on the results of part I of this study. We also design a test of significance against a general background noise which encompasses the Gaussian white or red noise. All the analysis tools presented in this article are available to the reader in the Python package WAVEPAL.
David E. Shean, Knut Christianson, Kristine M. Larson, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Ian R. Joughin, Ben E. Smith, C. Max Stevens, Mitchell Bushuk, and David M. Holland
The Cryosphere, 11, 2655–2674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2655-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2655-2017, 2017
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We used long-term GPS data and interferometric reflectometry (GPS-IR) to measure velocity, strain rate and surface elevation for the PIG ice shelf – a site of significant mass loss in recent decades. We combined these observations with high-res DEMs and firn model output to constrain surface mass balance and basal melt rates. We document notable spatial variability in basal melt rates but limited temporal variability from 2012 to 2014 despite significant changes in sub-shelf ocean heat content.
Natalie S. Lord, Michel Crucifix, Dan J. Lunt, Mike C. Thorne, Nabila Bounceur, Harry Dowsett, Charlotte L. O'Brien, and Andy Ridgwell
Clim. Past, 13, 1539–1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017, 2017
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We present projections of long-term changes in climate, produced using a statistical emulator based on climate data from a state-of-the-art climate model. We use the emulator to model changes in temperature and precipitation over the late Pliocene (3.3–2.8 million years before present) and the next 200 thousand years. The impact of the Earth's orbit and the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on climate is assessed, and the data for the late Pliocene are compared to proxy temperature data.
Paul J. Valdes, Edward Armstrong, Marcus P. S. Badger, Catherine D. Bradshaw, Fran Bragg, Michel Crucifix, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Jonathan J. Day, Alex Farnsworth, Chris Gordon, Peter O. Hopcroft, Alan T. Kennedy, Natalie S. Lord, Dan J. Lunt, Alice Marzocchi, Louise M. Parry, Vicky Pope, William H. G. Roberts, Emma J. Stone, Gregory J. L. Tourte, and Jonny H. T. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3715–3743, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, 2017
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In this paper we describe the family of climate models used by the BRIDGE research group at the University of Bristol as well as by various other institutions. These models are based on the UK Met Office HadCM3 models and here we describe the various modifications which have been made as well as the key features of a number of configurations in use.
Antonija Rimac, Sharon van Geffen, and Johannes Oerlemans
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-67, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The main aim of this paper is to use explicit glacier flow-line models of a different complexity to analyse the glacier length and volume evolution, and to disentangle climatic signals from geometric effects. We compare length and volume evolution of a synthetically designed glaciers simulated using Full-Stokes model based on Elmer/Ice code with the results obtained using SIA model.
J. M. van Wessem, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, C. H. Reijmer, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, N. E. Barrand, E. R. Thomas, J. Turner, J. Wuite, T. A. Scambos, and E. van Meijgaard
The Cryosphere, 10, 271–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-271-2016, 2016
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This study presents the first high-resolution (5.5 km) modelled estimate of surface mass balance (SMB) over the period 1979–2014 for the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Precipitation (snowfall and rain) largely determines the SMB, and is exceptionally high over the western mountain slopes, with annual values > 4 m water equivalent. Snowmelt is widespread over the AP, but only runs off into the ocean at some locations: the Larsen B,C, and Wilkins ice shelves, and along the north-western mountains.
P. Kuipers Munneke, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, B. P. Y. Noël, I. M. Howat, J. E. Box, E. Mosley-Thompson, J. R. McConnell, K. Steffen, J. T. Harper, S. B. Das, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 9, 2009–2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2009-2015, 2015
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The snow layer on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet is changing: it is thickening in the high and cold interior due to increased snowfall, while it is thinning around the margins. The marginal thinning is caused by compaction, and by more melt.
This knowledge is important: there are satellites that measure volume change of the ice sheet. It can be caused by increased ice discharge, or by compaction of the snow layer. Here, we quantify the latter, so that we can translate volume to mass change.
S. L. Cornford, D. F. Martin, A. J. Payne, E. G. Ng, A. M. Le Brocq, R. M. Gladstone, T. L. Edwards, S. R. Shannon, C. Agosta, M. R. van den Broeke, H. H. Hellmer, G. Krinner, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, R. Timmermann, and D. G. Vaughan
The Cryosphere, 9, 1579–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015, 2015
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We used a high-resolution ice sheet model capable of resolving grounding line dynamics (BISICLES) to compute responses of the major West Antarctic ice streams to projections of ocean and atmospheric warming. This is computationally demanding, and although other groups have considered parts of West Antarctica, we think this is the first calculation for the whole region at the sub-kilometer resolution that we show is required.
N. Bounceur, M. Crucifix, and R. D. Wilkinson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 205–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-205-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-205-2015, 2015
J. Oerlemans and W. J. J. van Pelt
The Cryosphere, 9, 767–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-767-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-767-2015, 2015
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Many glaciers on Svalbard are surging glaciers. A surge is a rapid advance of the glacier snout during a few years, followed by a long period of quiescence. During the surge ice flows to lower terrain and experiences higher melt rates in summer. Here we investigate the impact of surging on the long-term effects of climate warming. We have modelled Abrahamsenbreen in northern Spitsbergen as a typical case. We show that surges tend to accelerate glacier retreat when temperature increases.
R. S. W. van de Wal, C. J. P. P. Smeets, W. Boot, M. Stoffelen, R. van Kampen, S. H. Doyle, F. Wilhelms, M. R. van den Broeke, C. H. Reijmer, J. Oerlemans, and A. Hubbard
The Cryosphere, 9, 603–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-603-2015, 2015
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This paper addresses the feedback between ice flow and melt rates. Using 20 years of data covering the whole ablation area, we show that there is not a strong positive correlation between annual ice velocities and melt rates. Rapid variations around the equilibrium line indicate the possibility of rapid variations high on the ice sheet.
P. A. Araya-Melo, M. Crucifix, and N. Bounceur
Clim. Past, 11, 45–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, 2015
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By using a statistical tool termed emulator, we study the sensitivity of the Indian monsoon during the the Pleistocene. The originality of the present work is to consider, as inputs, several elements of the climate forcing that have varied in the past, and then use the emulator as a method to quantify the link between forcing variability and climate variability. The methodology described here may naturally be applied to other regions of interest.
T. A. Scambos, E. Berthier, T. Haran, C. A. Shuman, A. J. Cook, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, and J. Bohlander
The Cryosphere, 8, 2135–2145, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2135-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-2135-2014, 2014
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This study of one of the most rapidly changing glacier regions on earth -- the Antarctic Peninsula -- uses two types of satellite data to measure the rates of ice loss in detail for the individual glaciers. The satellite data is laser altimetry from ICESat and stereo image DEM differences. The results show that 24..9 ± 7.8 billion tons of ice are lost from the region north of 66°S on the peninsula each year. The majority of the data cover 2003-2008.
S. R. M. Ligtenberg, P. Kuipers Munneke, and M. R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 8, 1711–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1711-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1711-2014, 2014
Q. Z. Yin, U. K. Singh, A. Berger, Z. T. Guo, and M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 10, 1645–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014, 2014
B. C. Gunter, O. Didova, R. E. M. Riva, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, J. T. M. Lenaerts, M. A. King, M. R. van den Broeke, and T. Urban
The Cryosphere, 8, 743–760, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-743-2014, 2014
P. W. Leclercq, J. Oerlemans, H. J. Basagic, I. Bushueva, A. J. Cook, and R. Le Bris
The Cryosphere, 8, 659–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-659-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-659-2014, 2014
M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 9, 2253–2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, 2013
J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 7, 1557–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1557-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1557-2013, 2013
M. M. Helsen, W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 9, 1773–1788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1773-2013, 2013
W. J. J. van Pelt, J. Oerlemans, C. H. Reijmer, R. Pettersson, V. A. Pohjola, E. Isaksson, and D. Divine
The Cryosphere, 7, 987–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-987-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-987-2013, 2013
M. N. A. Maris, B. de Boer, and J. Oerlemans
Clim. Past, 8, 803–814, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-803-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-803-2012, 2012
M. M. Helsen, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 6, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-255-2012, 2012
I. G. M. Wientjes, R. S. W. Van de Wal, G. J. Reichart, A. Sluijs, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 5, 589–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-589-2011, 2011
M. A. G. den Ouden, C. H. Reijmer, V. Pohjola, R. S. W. van de Wal, J. Oerlemans, and W. Boot
The Cryosphere, 4, 593–604, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-593-2010, 2010
M. van den Broeke, P. Smeets, J. Ettema, C. van der Veen, R. van de Wal, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 2, 179–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-179-2008, 2008
J. Oerlemans, M. Dyurgerov, and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 1, 59–65, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-1-59-2007, 2007
Related subject area
Antarctic
A fast and simplified subglacial hydrological model for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and outlet glaciers
Dual-frequency radar observations of snowmelt processes on Antarctic perennial sea ice by CFOSCAT and ASCAT
Brief communication: New perspectives on the skill of modelled sea ice trends in light of recent Antarctic sea ice loss
Using deep learning and multi-source remote sensing images to map landlocked lakes in Antarctica
Thwaites Glacier thins and retreats fastest where ice-shelf channels intersect its grounding zone
Contribution of blowing-snow sublimation to the surface mass balance of Antarctica
Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier
A model framework for atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange and the associated isotope effects at Dome Argus, Antarctica – Part 1: The diurnal changes
The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica
The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Quantifying the influence of snow over sea ice morphology on L-band passive microwave satellite observations in the Southern Ocean
How well can satellite altimetry and firn models resolve Antarctic firn thickness variations?
Feedback mechanisms controlling Antarctic glacial-cycle dynamics simulated with a coupled ice sheet–solid Earth model
Employing automated electrical resistivity tomography for detecting short- and long-term changes in permafrost and active-layer dynamics in the maritime Antarctic
The effect of ice shelf rheology on shelf edge bending
Hysteresis of idealized, instability-prone outlet glaciers in response to pinning-point buttressing variation
A decade (2008–2017) of water stable isotope composition of precipitation at Concordia Station, East Antarctica
The role of atmospheric conditions in the Antarctic sea ice extent summer minima
A physics-based Antarctic melt detection technique: combining Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, radiative-transfer modeling, and firn modeling
Assessing the sensitivity of the Vanderford Glacier, East Antarctica, to basal melt and calving
Brief communication: Precision measurement of the index of refraction of deep glacial ice at radio frequencies at Summit Station, Greenland
Extreme precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers over West Antarctic ice shelves: insights from kilometre-scale regional climate modelling
Widespread increase in discharge from west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018
Surface dynamics and history of the calving cycle of Astrolabe Glacier (Adélie Coast, Antarctica) derived from satellite imagery
Detecting Holocene retreat and readvance in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica: assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling
Weak relationship between remotely detected crevasses and inferred ice rheological parameters on Antarctic ice shelves
Speed-up, slowdown, and redirection of ice flow on neighbouring ice streams in the Pope, Smith and Kohler region of West Antarctica
A history-matching analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the last interglacial – Part 1: Ice sheet evolution
Extensive palaeo-surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet control modern and past ice flow
Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 1: Event detection for cryoseismology
Towards the systematic reconnaissance of seismic signals from glaciers and ice sheets – Part 2: Unsupervised learning for source process characterization
Firn air content changes on Antarctic ice shelves under three future warming scenarios
Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica
Alpine topography of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, Antarctica, mapped from ice sheet surface morphology
Surface processes and drivers of the snow water stable isotopic composition at Dome C, East Antarctica – a multi-datasets and modelling analysis
Impact of boundary conditions on the modeled thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet
The staggered retreat of grounded ice in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica
ISMIP6-based Antarctic Projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model
Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020
Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics
Extreme events of snow grain size increase in East Antarctica and their relationship with meteorological conditions
Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model
A contrast in sea ice drift and deformation between winter and spring of 2019 in the Antarctic marginal ice zone
Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)
Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Signature of the stratosphere–troposphere coupling on recent record-breaking Antarctic sea-ice anomalies
Local spatial variability in the occurrence of summer precipitation in the Sør Rondane Mountains, Antarctica
Elise Kazmierczak, Thomas Gregov, Violaine Coulon, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 5887–5911, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5887-2024, 2024
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We introduce a new fast model for water flow beneath the ice sheet capable of handling various hydrological and bed conditions in a unified way. Applying this model to Thwaites Glacier, we show that accounting for this water flow in ice sheet model projections has the potential to greatly increase the contribution to future sea level rise. We also demonstrate that the sensitivity of the ice sheet in response to external changes depends on the efficiency of the drainage and the bed type.
Rui Xu, Chaofang Zhao, Stefanie Arndt, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 18, 5769–5788, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5769-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5769-2024, 2024
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The onset of snowmelt on Antarctic sea ice is an important indicator of sea ice change. In this study, we used two radar scatterometers to detect the onset of snowmelt on perennial Antarctic sea ice. Results show that since 2007, snowmelt onset has demonstrated strong interannual and regional variabilities. We also found that the difference in snowmelt onsets between the two scatterometers is closely related to snow metamorphism.
Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson
The Cryosphere, 18, 5641–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, 2024
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Until recently, satellite data showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice area since 1979, but climate models simulated a decrease over this period. This mismatch was one reason for low confidence in model projections of 21st-century sea ice loss. We show that following low Antarctic sea ice in 2022 and 2023, we can no longer conclude that modelled and observed trends differ. However, differences in the manner of the decline mean that model sea ice projections should still be viewed with caution.
Anyao Jiang, Xin Meng, Yan Huang, and Guitao Shi
The Cryosphere, 18, 5347–5364, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5347-2024, 2024
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Landlocked lakes are crucial to the Antarctic ecosystem and sensitive to climate change. Limited research on their distribution prompted us to develop an automated detection process using deep learning and multi-source satellite imagery. This allowed us to accurately determine the landlocked lake open water (LLOW) area in Antarctica, generating high-resolution time series data. We find that the changes in positive and negative degree days predominantly drive variations in the LLOW area.
Allison M. Chartrand, Ian M. Howat, Ian R. Joughin, and Benjamin E. Smith
The Cryosphere, 18, 4971–4992, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4971-2024, 2024
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This study uses high-resolution remote-sensing data to show that shrinking of the West Antarctic Thwaites Glacier’s ice shelf (floating extension) is exacerbated by several sub-ice-shelf meltwater channels that form as the glacier transitions from full contact with the seafloor to fully floating. In mapping these channels, the position of the transition zone, and thinning rates of the Thwaites Glacier, this work elucidates important processes driving its rapid contribution to sea level rise.
Srinidhi Gadde and Willem Jan van de Berg
The Cryosphere, 18, 4933–4953, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4933-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4933-2024, 2024
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Blowing-snow sublimation is the major loss term in the mass balance of Antarctica. In this study we update the blowing-snow representation in the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO). With the updates, results compare well with observations from East Antarctica. Also, the continent-wide variation of blowing snow compares well with satellite observations. Hence, the updates provide a clear step forward in producing a physically sound and reliable estimate of the mass balance of Antarctica.
Brad Reed, J. A. Mattias Green, Adrian Jenkins, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 18, 4567–4587, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024, 2024
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We use a numerical ice-flow model to simulate the response of a 1940s Pine Island Glacier to changes in melting beneath its ice shelf. A decadal period of warm forcing is sufficient to push the glacier into an unstable, irreversible retreat from its long-term position on a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain. This retreat can only be stopped when unrealistic cold forcing is applied. These results show that short warm anomalies can lead to quick and substantial increases in ice flux.
Tianming Ma, Zhuang Jiang, Minghu Ding, Pengzhen He, Yuansheng Li, Wenqian Zhang, and Lei Geng
The Cryosphere, 18, 4547–4565, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4547-2024, 2024
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We constructed a box model to evaluate the isotope effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange at Dome A, Antarctica. The results show clear and invisible diurnal changes in surface snow isotopes under summer and winter conditions, respectively. The model also predicts that the annual net effects of atmosphere–snow water vapor exchange would be overall enrichments in snow isotopes since the effects in summer appear to be greater than those in winter at the study site.
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
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We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
Christian Wirths, Thomas F. Stocker, and Johannes C. R. Sutter
The Cryosphere, 18, 4435–4462, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024, 2024
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We investigated the influence of several regional climate models on the Antarctic Ice Sheet when applied as forcing for the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Our study shows that the choice of regional climate model forcing results in uncertainties of around a tenth of those in future sea level rise projections and also affects the extent of grounding line retreat in West Antarctica.
Lu Zhou, Julienne Stroeve, Vishnu Nandan, Rosemary Willatt, Shiming Xu, Weixin Zhu, Sahra Kacimi, Stefanie Arndt, and Zifan Yang
The Cryosphere, 18, 4399–4434, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4399-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4399-2024, 2024
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Snow over Antarctic sea ice, influenced by highly variable meteorological conditions and heavy snowfall, has a complex stratigraphy and profound impact on the microwave signature. We employ advanced radiation transfer models to analyse the effects of complex snow properties on brightness temperatures over the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Great potential lies in the understanding of snow processes and the application to satellite retrievals.
Maria T. Kappelsberger, Martin Horwath, Eric Buchta, Matthias O. Willen, Ludwig Schröder, Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 4355–4378, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4355-2024, 2024
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The interannual variations in the height of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are mainly due to natural variations in snowfall. Precise knowledge of these variations is important for the detection of any long-term climatic trends in AIS surface elevation. We present a new product that spatially resolves these height variations over the period 1992–2017. The product combines the strengths of atmospheric modeling results and satellite altimetry measurements.
Torsten Albrecht, Meike Bagge, and Volker Klemann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4233–4255, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4233-2024, 2024
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We performed coupled ice sheet–solid Earth simulations and discovered a positive (forebulge) feedback mechanism for advancing grounding lines, supporting a larger West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. During deglaciation we found that the stabilizing glacial isostatic adjustment feedback dominates grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea, with a weak Earth structure. This may have consequences for present and future ice sheet stability and potential rates of sea-level rise.
Mohammad Farzamian, Teddi Herring, Gonçalo Vieira, Miguel Angel de Pablo, Borhan Yaghoobi Tabar, and Christian Hauck
The Cryosphere, 18, 4197–4213, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4197-2024, 2024
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An automated electrical resistivity tomography (A-ERT) system was developed and deployed in Antarctica to monitor permafrost and active-layer dynamics. The A-ERT, coupled with an efficient processing workflow, demonstrated its capability to monitor real-time thaw depth progression, detect seasonal and surficial freezing–thawing events, and assess permafrost stability. Our study showcased the potential of A-ERT to contribute to global permafrost monitoring networks.
W. Roger Buck
The Cryosphere, 18, 4165–4176, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4165-2024, 2024
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Standard theory predicts that the edge of an ice shelf should bend downward. Satellite observations show that the edges of many ice shelves bend upward. A new theory for ice shelf bending is developed that, for the first time, includes the kind of vertical variations in ice flow properties expected for ice shelves. Upward bending of shelf edges is predicted as long as the ice surface is very cold and the ice flow properties depend strongly on temperature.
Johannes Feldmann, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4011–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, 2024
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Here we show in simplified simulations that the (ir)reversibility of the retreat of instability-prone, Antarctica-type glaciers can strongly depend on the depth of the bed depression they rest on. If it is sufficiently deep, then the destabilized glacier does not recover from its collapsed state. Our results suggest that glaciers resting on a wide and deep bed depression, such as Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, are particularly susceptible to irreversible retreat.
Giuliano Dreossi, Mauro Masiol, Barbara Stenni, Daniele Zannoni, Claudio Scarchilli, Virginia Ciardini, Mathieu Casado, Amaëlle Landais, Martin Werner, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giampietro Casasanta, Massimo Del Guasta, Vittoria Posocco, and Carlo Barbante
The Cryosphere, 18, 3911–3931, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3911-2024, 2024
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Oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes have been extensively used to reconstruct past temperatures, with precipitation representing the input signal of the isotopic records in ice cores. We present a 10-year record of stable isotopes in daily precipitation at Concordia Station: this is the longest record for inland Antarctica and represents a benchmark for quantifying post-depositional processes and improving the paleoclimate interpretation of ice cores.
Bianca Mezzina, Hugues Goosse, François Klein, Antoine Barthélemy, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 18, 3825–3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3825-2024, 2024
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We analyze years with extraordinarily low sea ice extent in Antarctica during summer, until the striking record in 2022. We highlight common aspects among these events, such as the fact that the exceptional melting usually occurs in two key regions and that it is related to winds with a similar direction. We also investigate whether the summer conditions are preceded by an unusual state of the sea ice during the previous winter, as well as the physical processes involved.
Marissa E. Dattler, Brooke Medley, and C. Max Stevens
The Cryosphere, 18, 3613–3631, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3613-2024, 2024
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We developed an algorithm based on combining models and satellite observations to identify the presence of surface melt on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We find that this method works similarly to previous methods by assessing 13 sites and the Larsen C ice shelf. Unlike previous methods, this algorithm is based on physical parameters, and updates to this method could allow the meltwater present on the Antarctic Ice Sheet to be quantified instead of simply detected.
Lawrence A. Bird, Felicity S. McCormack, Johanna Beckmann, Richard S. Jones, and Andrew N. Mackintosh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2060, 2024
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Vanderford Glacier is the fastest retreating glacier in East Antarctica and may have important implications for future ice loss from the Aurora Subglacial Basin. Our ice sheet model simulations suggest that grounding line retreat is driven by sub-ice shelf basal melting, where warm ocean waters melt ice close the grounding line. We show that current estimates of basal melt are likely too low, highlighting the need for improved estimates and direct measurements of basal melt in the region.
Christoph Welling and The RNO-G Collaboration
The Cryosphere, 18, 3433–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3433-2024, 2024
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We report on the measurement of the index of refraction in glacial ice at radio frequencies. We show that radio echoes from within the ice can be associated with specific features of the ice conductivity and use this to determine the wave velocity. This measurement is especially relevant for the Radio Neutrino Observatory Greenland (RNO-G), a neutrino detection experiment currently under construction at Summit Station, Greenland.
Ella Gilbert, Denis Pishniak, José Abraham Torres, Andrew Orr, Michelle Maclennan, Nander Wever, and Kristiina Verro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2111, 2024
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We use 3 sophisticated climate models to examine extreme precipitation in a critical region of West Antarctica. We found that rainfall probably occurred during the two cases we examined, and that it was generated by the interaction of air with steep topography. Our results show that kilometre scale models are useful tools for exploring extreme precipitation in this region, and that more observations of rainfall are needed.
Benjamin J. Davison, Anna E. Hogg, Carlos Moffat, Michael P. Meredith, and Benjamin J. Wallis
The Cryosphere, 18, 3237–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3237-2024, 2024
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Using a new dataset of ice motion, we observed glacier acceleration on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. The speed-up began around January 2021, but some glaciers sped up earlier or later. Using a combination of ship-based ocean temperature observations and climate models, we show that the speed-up coincided with a period of unusually warm air and ocean temperatures in the region.
Floriane Provost, Dimitri Zigone, Emmanuel Le Meur, Jean-Philippe Malet, and Clément Hibert
The Cryosphere, 18, 3067–3079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3067-2024, 2024
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The recent calving of Astrolabe Glacier in November 2021 presents an opportunity to better understand the processes leading to ice fracturing. Optical-satellite imagery is used to retrieve the calving cycle of the glacier ice tongue and to measure the ice velocity and strain rates in order to document fracture evolution. We observed that the presence of sea ice for consecutive years has favoured the glacier extension but failed to inhibit the growth of fractures that accelerated in June 2021.
Joanne S. Johnson, John Woodward, Ian Nesbitt, Kate Winter, Seth Campbell, Keir A. Nichols, Ryan A. Venturelli, Scott Braddock, Brent M. Goehring, Brenda Hall, Dylan H. Rood, and Greg Balco
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1452, 2024
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Determining where and when the Antarctic ice sheet was smaller than present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Here we use ice sheet model outputs and field data (geological and glaciological observations, bedrock samples and ground-penetrating radar from subglacial ridges) to assess the suitability for drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, West Antarctica. We find that no sites are perfect, but two are feasible, with the most suitable being Winkie Nunatak.
Cristina Gerli, Sebastian Rosier, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Sainan Sun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2677–2689, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2677-2024, 2024
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Recent efforts have focused on using AI and satellite imagery to track crevasses for assessing ice shelf damage and informing ice flow models. Our study reveals a weak connection between these observed products and damage maps inferred from ice flow models. While there is some improvement in crevasse-dense regions, this association remains limited. Directly mapping ice damage from satellite observations may not significantly improve the representation of these processes within ice flow models.
Heather Louise Selley, Anna E. Hogg, Benjamin J. Davison, Pierre Dutrieux, and Thomas Slater
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442, 2024
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We used satellite observations to measure recent changes in ice speed and flow direction in the Pope, Smith and Kohler Region of West Antarctica (2005–2022). We found substantial speed up on seven ice streams of up to 87 %. However, Kohler West Glacier has slowed by 10%, due to the redirection of ice flow into its rapidly thinning neighbour. This process of ‘ice piracy’ hasn’t previously been directly observed on this rapid timescale and may influence future ice shelf and sheet mass changes.
Benoit S. Lecavalier and Lev Tarasov
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1291, 2024
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We present the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) over the last 200 ka by means of a history-matching analysis where an updated observational database constrained ~10,000 model simulations. During peak glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the best-fitting sub-ensemble of AIS simulations reached an excess grounded ice volume relative to present of 9.2 to 26.5 meters equivalent sea-level relative to present. The LGM AIS volume can help resolve the LGM missing ice problem.
Charlotte M. Carter, Michael J. Bentley, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Guy J. G. Paxman, Tom A. Jordan, Julien A. Bodart, Neil Ross, and Felipe Napoleoni
The Cryosphere, 18, 2277–2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2277-2024, 2024
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We use radio-echo sounding data to investigate the presence of flat surfaces beneath the Evans–Rutford region in West Antarctica. These surfaces may be what remains of laterally continuous surfaces, formed before the inception of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we assess two hypotheses for their formation. Tectonic structures in the region may have also had a control on the growth of the ice sheet by focusing ice flow into troughs adjoining these surfaces.
David B. Bonan, Jakob Dörr, Robert C. J. Wills, Andrew F. Thompson, and Marius Årthun
The Cryosphere, 18, 2141–2159, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2141-2024, 2024
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Antarctic sea ice has exhibited variability over satellite records, including a period of gradual expansion and a period of sudden decline. We use a novel statistical method to identify sources of variability in observed Antarctic sea ice changes. We find that the gradual increase in sea ice is likely related to large-scale temperature trends, and periods of abrupt sea ice decline are related to specific flavors of equatorial tropical variability known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2061–2079, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2061-2024, 2024
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The study of icequakes allows for investigation of many glacier processes that are unseen by typical reconnaissance methods. However, detection of such seismic signals is challenging due to low signal-to-noise levels and diverse source mechanisms. Here we present a novel algorithm that is optimized to detect signals from a glacier environment. We apply the algorithm to seismic data recorded in the 2010–2011 austral summer from the Whillans Ice Stream and evaluate the resulting event catalogue.
Rebecca B. Latto, Ross J. Turner, Anya M. Reading, Sue Cook, Bernd Kulessa, and J. Paul Winberry
The Cryosphere, 18, 2081–2101, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2081-2024, 2024
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Seismic catalogues are potentially rich sources of information on glacier processes. In a companion study, we constructed an event catalogue for seismic data from the Whillans Ice Stream. Here, we provide a semi-automated workflow for consistent catalogue analysis using an unsupervised cluster analysis. We discuss the defining characteristics of identified signal types found in this catalogue and possible mechanisms for the underlying glacier processes and noise sources.
Sanne B. M. Veldhuijsen, Willem Jan van de Berg, Peter Kuipers Munneke, and Michiel R. van den Broeke
The Cryosphere, 18, 1983–1999, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1983-2024, 2024
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We use the IMAU firn densification model to simulate the 21st-century evolution of Antarctic firn air content. Ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula and the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf in Dronning Maud Land are particularly vulnerable to total firn air content (FAC) depletion. Our results also underline the potentially large vulnerability of low-accumulation ice shelves to firn air depletion through ice slab formation.
Jan De Rydt and Kaitlin Naughten
The Cryosphere, 18, 1863–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1863-2024, 2024
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The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice at an accelerating pace. This is largely due to the presence of warm ocean water around the periphery of the Antarctic continent, which melts the ice. It is generally assumed that the strength of this process is controlled by the temperature of the ocean. However, in this study we show that an equally important role is played by the changing geometry of the ice sheet, which affects the strength of the ocean currents and thereby the melt rates.
Edmund J. Lea, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, and Michael J. Bentley
The Cryosphere, 18, 1733–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1733-2024, 2024
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We use the ice surface expression of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in East Antarctica to map the horizontal pattern of valleys and ridges in finer detail than possible from previous methods. In upland areas, valleys are spaced much less than 5 km apart, with consequences for the distribution of melting at the bed and hence the likelihood of ancient ice being preserved. Automated mapping techniques were tested alongside manual approaches, with a hybrid approach recommended for future work.
Inès Ollivier, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Barbara Stenni, Laurent Arnaud, Mathieu Casado, Alexandre Cauquoin, Giuliano Dreossi, Christophe Genthon, Bénédicte Minster, Ghislain Picard, Martin Werner, and Amaëlle Landais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-685, 2024
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The role of post-depositional processes taking place at the ice sheet's surface on the water stable isotope signal measured in polar ice cores is not fully understood. Using field observations and modelling results, we show that the original precipitation isotopic signal at Dome C, East Antarctica, is modified by post-depositional processes and provide the first quantitative estimation of their mean impact on the isotopic signal observed in the snow.
In-Woo Park, Emilia Kyung Jin, Mathieu Morlighem, and Kang-Kun Lee
The Cryosphere, 18, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1139-2024, 2024
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This study conducted 3D thermodynamic ice sheet model experiments, and modeled temperatures were compared with 15 observed borehole temperature profiles. We found that using incompressibility of ice without sliding agrees well with observed temperature profiles in slow-flow regions, while incorporating sliding in fast-flow regions captures observed temperature profiles. Also, the choice of vertical velocity scheme has a greater impact on the shape of the modeled temperature profile.
Matthew A. Danielson and Philip J. Bart
The Cryosphere, 18, 1125–1138, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1125-2024, 2024
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The post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Ross Sea was more significant than for any other Antarctic sector. Here we combined the available dates of retreat with new mapping of sediment deposited by the ice sheet during overall retreat. Our work shows that the post-LGM retreat through the Ross Sea was not uniform. This uneven retreat can cause instability in the present-day Antarctic ice sheet configuration and lead to future runaway retreat.
Trystan Surawy-Stepney, Anna E. Hogg, Stephen L. Cornford, Benjamin J. Wallis, Benjamin J. Davison, Heather L. Selley, Ross A. W. Slater, Elise K. Lie, Livia Jakob, Andrew Ridout, Noel Gourmelen, Bryony I. D. Freer, Sally F. Wilson, and Andrew Shepherd
The Cryosphere, 18, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-977-2024, 2024
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Here, we use satellite observations and an ice flow model to quantify the impact of sea ice buttressing on ice streams on the Antarctic Peninsula. The evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022 was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and acceleration (30 %) of the ocean-terminating glaciers. Our results show that sea ice buttressing had a negligible direct role in the observed dynamic changes.
James F. O'Neill, Tamsin L. Edwards, Daniel F. Martin, Courtney Shafer, Stephen L. Cornford, Helene L. Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, and Mira Adhikari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-441, 2024
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We use an ice sheet model to simulate the Antarctic contribution to sea level over the 21st century, under a range of future climates, varying how sensitive the ice sheet is to different processes. We find that, under stronger warming scenarios, ocean temperatures increases and more snow falls on the ice sheet. When the ice sheet is sensitive to ocean warming, ocean melting driven loss exceeds snowfall driven gains, so that the sea level contribution is greater with more climate warming.
Andrew N. Hennig, David A. Mucciarone, Stanley S. Jacobs, Richard A. Mortlock, and Robert B. Dunbar
The Cryosphere, 18, 791–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-791-2024, 2024
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A total of 937 seawater paired oxygen isotope (δ18O)–salinity samples collected during seven cruises on the SE Amundsen Sea between 1994 and 2020 reveal a deep freshwater source with δ18O − 29.4±1.0‰, consistent with the signature of local ice shelf melt. Local mean meteoric water content – comprised primarily of glacial meltwater – increased between 1994 and 2020 but exhibited greater interannual variability than increasing trend.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
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Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Claudio Stefanini, Giovanni Macelloni, Marion Leduc-Leballeur, Vincent Favier, Benjamin Pohl, and Ghislain Picard
The Cryosphere, 18, 593–608, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-593-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-593-2024, 2024
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Local and large-scale meteorological conditions have been considered in order to explain some peculiar changes of snow grains on the East Antarctic Plateau from 2000 to 2022, by using remote sensing observations and reanalysis. We identified some extreme grain size events on the highest ice divide, resulting from a combination of conditions of low wind speed and low temperature. Moreover, the beginning of seasonal grain growth has been linked to the occurrence of atmospheric rivers.
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
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We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
Ashleigh Womack, Alberto Alberello, Marc de Vos, Alessandro Toffoli, Robyn Verrinder, and Marcello Vichi
The Cryosphere, 18, 205–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-205-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-205-2024, 2024
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Synoptic events have a significant influence on the evolution of Antarctic sea ice. Our current understanding of the interactions between cyclones and sea ice remains limited. Using two ensembles of buoys, deployed in the north-eastern Weddell Sea region during winter and spring of 2019, we show how the evolution and spatial pattern of sea ice drift and deformation in the Antarctic marginal ice zone were affected by the balance between atmospheric and oceanic forcing and the local ice.
Francesca Baldacchino, Nicholas R. Golledge, Huw Horgan, Mathieu Morlighem, Alanna V. Alevropoulos-Borrill, Alena Malyarenko, Alexandra Gossart, Daniel P. Lowry, and Laurine van Haastrecht
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2793, 2023
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Understanding how the Ross Ice Shelf flow is changing in a warming world is important for monitoring mass changes. The flow displays an intra-annual variation; however, it is unclear what mechanisms drive this variability. Sensitivity maps are modelled showing areas of the ice shelf where changes in basal melt most influence the ice flow. We suggest that basal melting partly drives the flow variability along the calving front of the ice shelf and will continue to do so in a warming world.
Yushi Morioka, Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Masami Nonaka, and Swadhin K. Behera
The Cryosphere, 17, 5219–5240, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023, 2023
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Antarctic sea ice extent shows multidecadal variations with its decrease in the 1980s and increase after the 2000s until 2015. Here we show that our climate model can predict the sea ice decrease by deep convection in the Southern Ocean and the sea ice increase by the surface wind variability. These results suggest that accurate simulation and prediction of subsurface ocean and atmosphere conditions are important for those of Antarctic sea ice variability on a multidecadal timescale.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Raúl R. Cordero, Sarah Feron, Alessandro Damiani, Pedro J. Llanillo, Jorge Carrasco, Alia L. Khan, Richard Bintanja, Zutao Ouyang, and Gino Casassa
The Cryosphere, 17, 4995–5006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4995-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4995-2023, 2023
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We investigate the response of Antarctic sea ice to year-to-year changes in the tropospheric–stratospheric dynamics. Our findings suggest that, by affecting the tropospheric westerlies, the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex has played a major role in recent record-breaking anomalies in Antarctic sea ice.
Alfonso Ferrone, Étienne Vignon, Andrea Zonato, and Alexis Berne
The Cryosphere, 17, 4937–4956, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4937-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4937-2023, 2023
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In austral summer 2019/2020, three K-band Doppler profilers were deployed across the Sør Rondane Mountains, south of the Belgian base Princess Elisabeth Antarctica. Their measurements, along with atmospheric simulations and reanalyses, have been used to study the spatial variability in precipitation over the region, as well as investigate the interaction between the complex terrain and the typical flow associated with precipitating systems.
Cited articles
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