Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6353-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6353-2026
Research article
 | 
09 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 09 Nov 2026

Diverging runoff drives uncertainty in Antarctic surface mass balance projections under a high emission scenario

Benjamin Heurgue, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Fredrik Boberg, Gaël Durand, Vincent Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Quentin Glaude, Heiko Goelzer, Nicolaj Hansen, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Willem Jan Van de Berg, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, and René R. Wijngaard

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-624', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Apr 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Benjamin Heurgue, 09 Jul 2026
      • AC3: 'Reply on AC1', Benjamin Heurgue, 13 Jul 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-624', Devon Dunmire, 23 Apr 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Benjamin Heurgue, 09 Jul 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Submit a revised manuscript (10 Jul 2026) by Jan De Rydt
AR by Benjamin Heurgue on behalf of the Authors (05 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (22 Sep 2026) by Jan De Rydt
RR by Devon Dunmire (25 Sep 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (01 Oct 2026)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (05 Oct 2026) by Jan De Rydt
AR by Benjamin Heurgue on behalf of the Authors (27 Oct 2026)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
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