Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6353-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6353-2026
Research article
 | 
09 Nov 2026
Research article |  | 09 Nov 2026

Diverging runoff drives uncertainty in Antarctic surface mass balance projections under a high emission scenario

Benjamin Heurgue, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Fredrik Boberg, Gaël Durand, Vincent Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Quentin Glaude, Heiko Goelzer, Nicolaj Hansen, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Willem Jan Van de Berg, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, and René R. Wijngaard

Model code and software

HEURUE et al. (2026), The Cryosphere: data processing, analyses and figures B. Heurgue https://zenodo.org/records/18222910

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Short summary
We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
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