Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6353-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-6353-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Diverging runoff drives uncertainty in Antarctic surface mass balance projections under a high emission scenario
Benjamin Heurgue
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Charles Amory
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Christoph Kittel
Physical Geography Research Group, Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Fredrik Boberg
Department of National Centre for Climate Research (NCKF), Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Gaël Durand
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Vincent Favier
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Xavier Fettweis
Physical Geography Research Group, Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Quentin Glaude
Physical Geography Research Group, Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Applied Computer Electronics Laboratory, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
Heiko Goelzer
Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Nicolaj Hansen
Department of National Centre for Climate Research (NCKF), Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Nicolas C. Jourdain
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France
Ruth Mottram
Department of National Centre for Climate Research (NCKF), Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Martin Olesen
Department of National Centre for Climate Research (NCKF), Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Willem Jan Van de Berg
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Michiel R. Van den Broeke
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
René R. Wijngaard
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Model code and software
HEURUE et al. (2026), The Cryosphere: data processing, analyses and figures B. Heurgue https://zenodo.org/records/18222910
Short summary
We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three...
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