Simulating jökulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding

Hepburn, Adam J.; Buzzard, Sammie; Sole, Andrew J.; Livingstone, Stephen J.; Ng, Felix; Morlighem, Mathieu; Bagshaw, Elizabeth A.; Clason, Caroline; Craw, Lisa; Dow, Christine F.; Doyle, Samuel; Hawkins, Jonathan; Peacey, Matthew; Storrar, Robert

doi:10.5194/tc-20-5675-2026

Articles | Volume 20, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5675-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-5675-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 10

Research article

|

06 Oct 2026

Research article |

| 06 Oct 2026

Simulating jökulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding

Adam J. Hepburn, Sammie Buzzard, Andrew J. Sole, Stephen J. Livingstone, Felix Ng, Mathieu Morlighem, Elizabeth A. Bagshaw, Caroline Clason, Lisa Craw, Christine F. Dow, Samuel Doyle, Jonathan Hawkins, Matthew Peacey, and Robert Storrar

Data sets

Supplementary information: Simulating jökulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding A. Hepburn et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20269306

Model code and software

The-SLIDE-Project/pyJokulhlaup: v1.0 (Version v1.0) A. Hepburn https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23084735

Supplementary information: Simulating jökulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding A. Hepburn et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20269306

Video supplement

Supplementary information: Simulating jökulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding A. Hepburn et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20269306

Short summary

Lakes at glacier margins can drain beneath the ice in devastating, floods called jökulhlaups. We present the first 2D model of jökulhlaup propagation, first applying it to a synthetic glacier, before then assessing its ability to reproduce an observed record of lake fill-drain cycles in Greenland. Our results match a 17-year record of flood timing but underpredicts peak discharge likely because we are missing certain physical processes. Our results hold promise for simulating jökulhlaups.