On the non-linear response of Antarctic ice shelf surface melt to warming

Hofsteenge, Marte Gé; van de Berg, Willem Jan; van Dalum, Christiaan; Verro, Kristiina; van Tiggelen, Maurice; van den Broeke, Michiel

doi:10.5194/tc-20-4747-2026

Articles | Volume 20, issue 8

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4747-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4747-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 8

Research article

|

26 Aug 2026

Research article |

| 26 Aug 2026

On the non-linear response of Antarctic ice shelf surface melt to warming

Marte Gé Hofsteenge, Willem Jan van de Berg, Christiaan van Dalum, Kristiina Verro, Maurice van Tiggelen, and Michiel van den Broeke

Data sets

Monthly RACMO2.4p1 data for Antarctica (11 km) forced with ERA5 (1979-2023), CESM2 (1985-2100) and MPI-ESM (1985-2100) Marte Hofsteenge et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21991227

Short summary

We use a regional climate model to study how surface melt on Antarctic ice shelves responds to air temperature. The relationship is strongly non-linear, mainly due to feedbacks in surface albedo, with other energy sources also contributing. Currently colder, drier, and more stable ice shelves will experience more melt at the same temperature than ice shelves in wetter climates, highlighting their vulnerability to fracturing, ice shelf instability, and contributions to global sea-level rise.