The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4655-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4655-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 8
Research article
 | 
24 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 24 Aug 2026

Arctic sea ice predictability on daily-to-weekly timescales: sensitivity to initial positional errors under different rheology formulations

Lohenn Fiol, Stephanie Leroux, Pierre Rampal, and Jean-Michel Brankart

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Short summary
We examine how uncertainty in the initial position of sea ice features (leads, ridges), affects daily-to-weekly winter sea-ice forecasts. Using ensemble simulations with a sea ice–ocean model, we compare two formulations of sea ice mechanics. We show that pack-ice dynamics are highly sensitive to this choice: one formulation strongly amplifies small initial errors, while the other damps them. Our results highlight the need for ensemble forecasts to capture uncertainty and risks in the Arctic.
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