The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2871-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2871-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
Research article
 | 
21 May 2026
Research article |  | 21 May 2026

Estimating the thermodynamic contribution of post-industrial warming to recent Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss

Jonathon R. Preece, Patrick Alexander, Thomas L. Mote, Gabriel J. Kooperman, Xavier Fettweis, and Marco Tedesco

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2871-2026-supplement

Data sets

Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) version 3.12 regional climate model pseudo-global warming experiment output, 2000-2019, Greenland domain, 20 kilometer (km) horizontal resolution Jonathon Preece et al. https://doi.org/10.18739/A2TT4FV6W

ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.24381/CDS.BD0915C6

CESM1 Large Ensemble Community Project J. Kay et al. https://doi.org/10.5065/D6J101D1

Merged Hadley-OI sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration data set James W. Hurrell et al. https://doi.org/10.5065/R33V-SV91

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Short summary
Surface melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased dramatically since the turn of the century, aided by an increase in persistent atmospheric circulation patterns that promote anomalously warm conditions. Through modeling experiments, this study shows that surface mass loss would have been reduced by 62% relative to historical conditions if this shift in atmospheric circulation would have occurred under the lower average temperatures of a preindustrial climate.
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