Articles | Volume 20, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2681-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2681-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 May 2026
Research article |
| 08 May 2026
| 08 May 2026
Ensemble numerical simulation of permafrost thermal regimes over the Tibetan Plateau using the Flexible Permafrost Model: 1950–2023
Wen Sun
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources (TPESER), National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (TPDC), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources (TPESER), National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (TPDC), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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Bin Cao and Stephan Gruber
The Cryosphere, 19, 4525–4532, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4525-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4525-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The climate-driven changes in cold regions have an outsized importance for local resilient communities and for global climate through teleconnections. We show that reanalyses are less accurate in cold regions compared to other more populated regions, coincident with the low density of observations. Our findings likely point to similar gaps in our knowledge and capabilities of climate research and services in cold regions.
Bin Cao, Gabriele Arduini, and Ervin Zsoter
The Cryosphere, 16, 2701–2708, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented a new multi-layer snow scheme in the land surface scheme of ERA5-Land with revised snow densification parameterizations. The revised HTESSEL improved the representation of soil temperature in permafrost regions compared to ERA5-Land; in particular, warm bias in winter was significantly reduced, and the resulting modeled near-surface permafrost extent was improved.
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Short summary
Understanding the dynamics of permafrost heavily relies on process-based simulations. In this study, we introduce a new model specifically designed for permafrost applications, the Flexible Permafrost Model (FPM). This model serves as an adaptable framework for implementing innovative permafrost-related physics. Long-term ensemble simulations indicate that the permafrost temperature increased at a rate of 0.11 °C dec-1 since 1980 with a decreased area of ∼12.4 % over the Tibetan Plateau.
Understanding the dynamics of permafrost heavily relies on process-based simulations. In this...
