Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2375-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2375-2026
Research article
 | 
24 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 24 Apr 2026

Determining TTOP model parameter importance and overall performance across northern Canada

Madeleine C. Garibaldi, Philip P. Bonnaventure, Robert G. Way, Alexandre Bevington, Sharon L. Smith, Scott F. Lamoureux, Jean E. Holloway, Antoni G. Lewkowicz, and Hannah Ackerman

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Cited articles

Ackerman, H.: Spatial modelling of monthly climate across mountainous terrain in southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, MSc thesis, University of Ottawa, https://doi.org/10.20381/ruor-28468, 2022. 
Aylsworth, J. and Kettles, I.: The Physical Environment of the Mackenzie Valley, Northwest Territories: A Base Line for the Assessment of Environmental Change, Bull. Geol. Surv. Canada, 547, 49–55, 2000. 
Behnia, P. and Blais-Stevens, A.: Landslide susceptibility modelling using the quantitative random forest method along the northern portion of the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor, Canada, Nat. Hazards, 90, 1407–1426, 2018. 
Bevington, A. and Lewkowicz, A. G.: Assessment of a land cover driven TTOP model for mountain and lowland permafrost using field data, southern Yukon and northern British Columbia, Canada, Proceedings of GEOQuébec: 68th Canadian Geotechnical Conference and 7th Canadian Permafrost Conference, Quebec City, Canada, Paper 724, https://members.cgs.ca/documents/conference2015/GeoQuebec/prof348.html (last access: July 2019), 2015. 
Biau, G. and Scornet, E.: A random forest guided tour, TEST, 25, 197–227, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11749-016-0481-7, 2016. 
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Short summary
We assessed the sensitivity of a simple permafrost model to changes in parameter values using measured data across northern Canada. We altered the value of one parameter at a time to assess the changes in the resulting temperature. The model was most sensitive to changes in the freezing season parameters and least sensitive to changes in the thawing parameters. However, the importance of specific parameters varied across Canada. The findings of this study can aid in development of future models.
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