Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2375-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2375-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Determining TTOP model parameter importance and overall performance across northern Canada
Madeleine C. Garibaldi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography and Environment, University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Dr W, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4, Canada
Philip P. Bonnaventure
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography and Environment, University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Dr W, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4, Canada
Robert G. Way
Northern Environmental Geoscience Laboratory, Department of Geography and Planning, Queen's University, 9 University Ave, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada
Alexandre Bevington
Department of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC V2N 4Z9, Canada
Sharon L. Smith
Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, 601 Booth St, Ottawa, ON K1A 0E4, Canada
Scott F. Lamoureux
Northern Environmental Geoscience Laboratory, Department of Geography and Planning, Queen's University, 9 University Ave, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada
Jean E. Holloway
Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, 75 Laurier Ave E, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
Antoni G. Lewkowicz
Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, 75 Laurier Ave E, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
Hannah Ackerman
Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, 75 Laurier Ave E, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
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Juditha Aga, Antoni G. Lewkowicz, and Sebastian Westermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-916, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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In this study, we explore the influence of a warming climate on landslides in ice-rich permafrost slopes. Using climate, terrain and soil data, we built a model that simulates permafrost thaw and its impact on slope stability. We tested the model on Banks Island, Canada, and it reproduced years with many new landslide observations and identified the most susceptible slopes. The model can also be applied to other permafrost regions, and to both past and future climate conditions.
Olivia Meier-Legault, Nicholas Brown, Larry Adjun, Michel Allard, Alejandro Alvarez, Maude Auclair, Alex Bevington, Samuel Bilodeau, William Cable, Olivia Carpino, Ariane Castagner, Lin Chen, Alexandre Chiasson, Ryan Connon, Stephanie Coulombe, Jeffrey Crompton, Derek Cronmiller, Gautier Davesne, Mason Dominico, Marc-André Ducharme, Timothy Ensom, Louise Farquharson, Vanessa Foord, Daniel Fortier, Philippe Fortier, Duane Froese, Samuel Gagnon, Francis Gauthier, Marten Geertsema, Etienne Godin, Galina Jonat, Steven V. Kokelj, Michelle Landry, Antoni Lewkowicz, Panya Lipovsky, Emmanual L’Hérault, Hannah Macdonell, Lancelot Massé, Dmitry Nicolsky, Moya Painter, Leesee Papatsie, Victor Pozsgay, William Quinton, Vladimir Romanovsky, Ashley C.A. Rudy, Denis Sarrazin, Emilie Stewart-Jones, Donald Walker, Thomas Wright, Joseph Young, and Stephan Gruber
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-96, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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Ground temperature data is vital for permafrost and climate research yet data is often fragmented. We created a standardized collection of ground temperatures from over 900 sites across Canada. From 42 published and unpublished sources, we manually verified, cleaned and standardized data with a new software tool. This dataset supports permafrost research on a nationwide scale and can help improve models by acting as a reliable benchmark.
Victor Pozsgay, Nick C. Noad, Philip P. Bonnaventure, and Stephan Gruber
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5512, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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Surface-based temperature inversions occur when cold air becomes trapped near the ground beneath a layer of warmer air. This study combines field data, analysis, and modelling to develop DReaMIT, a model that captures the timing and strength of inversions across northern mountain terrain. The model’s transferability beyond the valleys where it was developed makes it valuable globally to cold-region researchers for mapping and modelling permafrost and assessing climate change impacts.
Alexandre R. Bevington, Brian Menounos, and Mark Ednie
The Cryosphere, 20, 811–833, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-811-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-811-2026, 2026
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We developed automated "smart stakes" to study how quickly glaciers melt during hot weather. The low-cost devices were installed on Place Glacier in British Columbia and sent data by satellite in 2024. We show that just three heat periods caused more than half of the glacier's total summer melt, even though these events lasted only one-third of the melt season. This system provided measurements that would be impossible with traditional methods and we show that the data can improved melt models.
Anna C. Talucci, Michael M. Loranty, Jean E. Holloway, Brendan M. Rogers, Heather D. Alexander, Natalie Baillargeon, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Logan T. Berner, Amy Breen, Leya Brodt, Brian Buma, Jacqueline Dean, Clement J. F. Delcourt, Lucas R. Diaz, Catherine M. Dieleman, Thomas A. Douglas, Gerald V. Frost, Benjamin V. Gaglioti, Rebecca E. Hewitt, Teresa Hollingsworth, M. Torre Jorgenson, Mark J. Lara, Rachel A. Loehman, Michelle C. Mack, Kristen L. Manies, Christina Minions, Susan M. Natali, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, David Olefeldt, Alison K. Paulson, Adrian V. Rocha, Lisa B. Saperstein, Tatiana A. Shestakova, Seeta Sistla, Oleg Sizov, Andrey Soromotin, Merritt R. Turetsky, Sander Veraverbeke, and Michelle A. Walvoord
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2887–2909, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2887-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2887-2025, 2025
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Wildfires have the potential to accelerate permafrost thaw and the associated feedbacks to climate change. We assembled a dataset of permafrost thaw depth measurements from burned and unburned sites contributed by researchers from across the northern high-latitude region. We estimated maximum thaw depth for each measurement, which addresses a key challenge: the ability to assess impacts of wildfire on maximum thaw depth when measurement timing varies.
Yifeng Wang, Robert G. Way, Jordan Beer, Anika Forget, Rosamond Tutton, and Meredith C. Purcell
The Cryosphere, 17, 63–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-63-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-63-2023, 2023
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Peatland permafrost in northeastern Canada has been misrepresented by models, leading to significant underestimates of peatland permafrost and permafrost distribution along the Labrador Sea coastline. Our multi-stage, multi-mapper, consensus-based inventorying process, supported by field- and imagery-based validation efforts, identifies peatland permafrost complexes all along the coast. The highest density of complexes is found to the south of the current sporadic discontinuous permafrost limit.
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Short summary
We assessed the sensitivity of a simple permafrost model to changes in parameter values using measured data across northern Canada. We altered the value of one parameter at a time to assess the changes in the resulting temperature. The model was most sensitive to changes in the freezing season parameters and least sensitive to changes in the thawing parameters. However, the importance of specific parameters varied across Canada. The findings of this study can aid in development of future models.
We assessed the sensitivity of a simple permafrost model to changes in parameter values using...