Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1947-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1947-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Apr 2026
Research article |
| 07 Apr 2026
| 07 Apr 2026
Investigating the impact of sub-ice shelf melt on Antarctic ice sheet spin-up and projections
Fan Gao
State Key Laboratory of Precision Geodesy, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Qiang Shen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
State Key Laboratory of Precision Geodesy, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Hansheng Wang
State Key Laboratory of Precision Geodesy, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Tong Zhang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Liming Jiang
State Key Laboratory of Precision Geodesy, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
C. K. Shum
Division of Geodetic Science, School of Earth Sciences, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210, USA
Yan An
State Key Laboratory of Precision Geodesy, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Xu Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Precision Geodesy, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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We introduce an uncertainty analysis framework for comprehensively and systematically quantifying the uncertainties of the Antarctic mass balance using the Input and Output Method. It is difficult to use the previous strategies employed in various methods and the available data to achieve the goal of estimation accuracy. The dominant cause of the future uncertainty is the ice thickness data gap. The interannual variability of ice discharge caused by velocity and thickness is also nonnegligible.
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A total of 1975 annual calving events larger than 1 km2 were detected on the Antarctic ice shelves from August 2005 to August 2020. The average annual calved area was measured as 3549.1 km2, and the average calving rate was measured as 770.3 Gt yr-1. Iceberg calving is most prevalent in West Antarctica, followed by the Antarctic Peninsula and Wilkes Land in East Antarctica. This annual iceberg calving dataset provides consistent and precise calving observations with the longest time coverage.
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Short summary
Basal ice-shelf melting critically impacts Antarctic ice sheet evolution. Our testing of two melting schemes showed starkly diverging projections despite near-identical initial states, especially for West Antarctica. By 2100, the predicted sea-level contributions differed by 57%. Initial setup changes hidden sub-ice properties (e.g., friction, temperature), modifying ice flow. Accurately representing melt and refining setup are thus essential to reduce projections uncertainty.
Basal ice-shelf melting critically impacts Antarctic ice sheet evolution. Our testing of two...
