The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
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Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1947-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1947-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
Research article
 | 
07 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 07 Apr 2026

Investigating the impact of sub-ice shelf melt on Antarctic ice sheet spin-up and projections

Fan Gao, Qiang Shen, Hansheng Wang, Tong Zhang, Liming Jiang, Yan Liu, C. K. Shum, Yan An, and Xu Zhang

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Short summary
Basal ice-shelf melting critically impacts Antarctic ice sheet evolution. Our testing of two melting schemes showed starkly diverging projections despite near-identical initial states, especially for West Antarctica. By 2100, the predicted sea-level contributions differed by 57%. Initial setup changes hidden sub-ice properties (e.g., friction, temperature), modifying ice flow. Accurately representing melt and refining setup are thus essential to reduce projections uncertainty.
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