The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1867-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1867-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
Research article
 | 
01 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 01 Apr 2026

Past and future changes in avalanche problems in northern Norway estimated with machine-learning models

Kai-Uwe Eiselt and Rune Grand Graversen

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Short summary
We train machine-learning models to predict avalanche problems from meteorological and snow-cover data in northern Norway. A major part of the work is the estimation of avalanche-problem changes throughout the 21st century based on future climate projections. We find that while the avalanche danger generally declines towards 2100, the avalanche characteristics will likely change, meaning fewer dry but more wet avalanches, having potential implications for the avalanche-danger forecast quality.
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