CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections

Ultee, Lizz; Wimberly, Finn; Coats, Sloan; Mackay, Jonathan; Holmgren, Erik

doi:10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026

Articles | Volume 20, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 2

Research article

|

25 Feb 2026

Research article |

| 25 Feb 2026

CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections

Lizz Ultee, Finn Wimberly, Sloan Coats, Jonathan Mackay, and Erik Holmgren

Model code and software

ehultee/glacial- SPEI: Publication releast (v1.1.0) Lizz Ultee et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6510185

Short summary

Runoff from glaciers can be an important water source in mountain regions. Global climate models used to understand future changes in the water cycle do not include glacier changes. We simulated glacier change in all available glacier models using information from global climate models as input. We found that for analysis of future drought, it is more important to understand the climate input than to use all available glacier models together.