Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1139-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1139-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 12 Feb 2026
| 12 Feb 2026
Hysteresis of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Geosciences Institute, CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
Alexander Robinson
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
Jorge Alvarez-Solas
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Geosciences Institute, CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
Ilaria Tabone
Department of Geophysics, University of Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Geosciences Institute, CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
Daniel Moreno-Parada
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Faculty of Sciences, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Bruxelles, Belgium
Marisa Montoya
Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Geosciences Institute, CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain
Related authors
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, Lucía Gutiérrez-González, and Marisa Montoya
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6566, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is subject to hysteresis, i.e. if ice is lost due to warming, a comparatively larger cooling is needed to recover the original state. Here, we show that this effect might be larger than previously assumed, with volume differences of as much as 35 metres of sea-level equivalent between retreat and regrowth. Due to the large population density along the coasts, this stresses the importance of mitigating future sea-level rise, since adapting to it will likely be much harder.
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Alexander Robinson, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Marisa Montoya
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-248, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Tidal-water intrusions can cause warm ocean water to extend beneath grounded Antarctic ice, increasing submarine melting beyond the grounding line. Here, a new parameterization representing this effect is introduced and tested in the Yelmo ice-sheet model, revealing that tides could amplify ice loss and sea-level rise. This new parameterization shows good agreement with inferred grounding zones.
Veena Prasad, Oskar Herrmann, Ilaria Tabone, Mamta K C, Alexander R. Groos, Guillaume Jouvet, James R. Jordan, and Johannes J. Fürst
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-508, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
We present the testing and implementation of a calving framework for simulating the evolution of glacier fronts in grounded glacier tongues. The approach is coupled with a level set method to track changes in the glacier front over time and with an eigen-calving law that allows calving to respond to ice flow and stress conditions. The framework is evaluated using a synthetic glacier domain and, when applied to marine-terminating glaciers in Svalbard, reproduces observed calving front patterns.
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, Lucía Gutiérrez-González, and Marisa Montoya
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6566, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is subject to hysteresis, i.e. if ice is lost due to warming, a comparatively larger cooling is needed to recover the original state. Here, we show that this effect might be larger than previously assumed, with volume differences of as much as 35 metres of sea-level equivalent between retreat and regrowth. Due to the large population density along the coasts, this stresses the importance of mitigating future sea-level rise, since adapting to it will likely be much harder.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Kolja Kypke, Marisa Montoya, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, and Peter Ditlevsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4116, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Using a state-of-the-art ice sheet model, simulations of the future evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under moderate warming display chaotic variability, with the resulting large-scale loss of the ice sheet (also known as ’tipping’) being delayed by hundreds of thousands of years in some instances. The source of this variability is two nearby ice streams which oscillate in a build-up and surge pattern. This is the first study of such chaos in the Greenland ice sheet.
Marius Schaefer, Ilaria Tabone, Ralf Greve, Johannes Fürst, and Matthias Braun
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4167, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Northern Patagonian Icefield is the second largest ice mass of South America, located at moderate latitudes. Using an ice-flow model which uses available atmosphere data as input and explicitly models iceberg discharge, we assess its evolution. With present climate, it will lose about 25 % of its mass during this century. Climate change strongly accelerates losses and under Paris Agreement compliance it is 36 % until 2200 and up to 68 % under a business-as-usual fossil fuel scenario.
Nils Bochow, Philipp Hess, and Alexander Robinson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.22485, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.22485, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a fast, physics-guided machine-learning method that downscales coarse climate fields to fine resolution while enforcing conservation of large-scale totals. Trained on regional climate simulations and driven by Earth system model output, it handles extremes and outperforms linear interpolation, providing realistic, high-resolution forcing for ice-sheet models and improving projections of Greenland’s sea-level contribution.
Katrina Lutz, Ilaria Tabone, Angelika Humbert, and Matthias Braun
The Cryosphere, 19, 2601–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2601-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2601-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Supraglacial lakes develop from meltwater collecting on the surface of glaciers. These lakes can drain rapidly, discharging meltwater to the glacier bed. In this study, we assess the spatial and temporal distribution of rapid drainages in Northeast Greenland using optical satellite images. After comparing rapid drainage occurrence with several environmental and geophysical parameters, little indication of the influencing conditions for a rapid drainage was found.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3895–3919, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3895-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3895-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce Nix, an ice-sheet model designed for understanding how large masses of ice behave. Nix is a computer programme that simulates the movement and temperature evolution in ice sheets. It helps us study how ice sheets respond to changes in the atmosphere and ocean. We found that ice temperatures play an essential role in determining the motion and stability of ice sheets. Nix is a useful tool for learning how climate change affects polar ice sheets.
Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The climate of the last 3 Myr has varied between cold and warm periods. Numerous independent mechanisms have been proposed to explain this; however, no effort has been made to study their competing effects. Here we present a simple but physically motivated model that includes these mechanisms in a modular way. We identify ice-sheet dynamics and lithosphere displacement as main triggers, but reproducing the climate records additionally requires the natural darkening of ice.
Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) is an international collaborative effort to systematically assess tipping point risks in the Earth system using state-of-the-art coupled and stand-alone domain models. TIPMIP will provide a first global atlas of potential tipping dynamics, respective critical thresholds and key uncertainties, generating an important building block towards a comprehensive scientific basis for policy- and decision-making.
Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2467, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Almost 3 million years ago, the planet began to experience a succession of cold and warm periods every 40,000 years. However, about 1 million years ago, they began to occur every 100,000 years. In this paper we explore how the change in the basal velocity of the ice sheets could have produced this change in behavior. On the other hand, we also see that in our model, decreasing in time the sensitivity of snowfall to temperature is also an effective mechanism with which to reproduce the records.
Antonio Juarez-Martinez, Javier Blasco, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present sea level projections for Antarctica in the context of ISMIP6-2300 with several forcings but extend the simulations to 2500, showing that more than 3 m of sea level contribution could be reached. We also test the sensitivity on a basal melting parameter and determine the timing of the loss of ice in the west region. All the simulations were carried out with the ice sheet model Yelmo.
Therese Rieckh, Andreas Born, Alexander Robinson, Robert Law, and Gerrit Gülle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6987–7000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6987-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the open-source model ELSA, which simulates the internal age structure of large ice sheets. It creates layers of snow accumulation at fixed times during the simulation, which are used to model the internal stratification of the ice sheet. Together with reconstructed isochrones from radiostratigraphy data, ELSA can be used to assess ice sheet models and to improve their parameterization. ELSA can be used coupled to an ice sheet model or forced with its output.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
The Cryosphere, 18, 4215–4232, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study tries to understand how the ice temperature evolves in a large mass as in the case of Antarctica. We found a relation that tells us the ice temperature at any point. These results are important because they also determine how the ice moves. In general, ice moves due to slow deformation (as if pouring honey from a jar). Nevertheless, in some regions the ice base warms enough and melts. The liquid water then serves as lubricant and the ice slides and its velocity increases rapidly.
Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Clim. Past, 20, 1919–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1919-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we assess Antarctic tipping points which may had been crossed during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period. For this, we use data from the PlioMIP2 ensemble. Additionally, we investigate various sources of uncertainty, like ice dynamics and bedrock configuration. Our research significantly enhances our comprehension of Antarctica's response to a warming climate, shedding light on potential future tipping points that may be surpassed.
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Marisa Montoya, Konstantin Latychev, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Jerry Mitrovica
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5263–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets present a thickness of a few kilometres, leading to a vertical deformation of the crust of up to a kilometre. This process depends on properties of the solid Earth, which can be regionally very different. We propose a model that accounts for this often-ignored heterogeneity and run 100 000 simulation years in minutes. Thus, the evolution of ice sheets is modeled with better accuracy, which is critical for a good mitigation of climate change and, in particular, sea-level rise.
Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 17, 2139–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have reconstructed the Laurentide Ice Sheet, located in North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years ago). The absence of direct measurements raises a number of uncertainties. Here we study the impact of different physical laws that describe the friction as the ice slides over its base. We found that the Laurentide Ice Sheet is closest to prior reconstructions when the basal friction takes into account whether the base is frozen or thawed during its motion.
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
Alexander Robinson, Daniel Goldberg, and William H. Lipscomb
The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we investigate the numerical stability of several commonly used methods in order to determine which of them are capable of resolving the complex physics of the ice flow and are also computationally efficient. We find that the so-called DIVA solver outperforms the others. Its representation of the physics is consistent with more complex methods, while it remains computationally efficient at high resolution.
Andreas Born and Alexander Robinson
The Cryosphere, 15, 4539–4556, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4539-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ice penetrating radar reflections from the Greenland ice sheet are the best available record of past accumulation and how these layers have been deformed over time by the flow of ice. Direct simulations of this archive hold great promise for improving our models and for uncovering details of ice sheet dynamics that neither models nor data could achieve alone. We present the first three-dimensional ice sheet model that explicitly simulates individual layers of accumulation and how they deform.
Cited articles
Abe-Ouchi, A., Saito, F., Kawamura, K., Raymo, M. E., Okuno, J., Takahashi, K., and Blatter, H.: Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190–193, 2013. a
Alley, R. B., Clark, P. U., Huybrechts, P., and Joughin, I.: Ice-sheet and sea-level changes, Science, 310, 456–460, 2005. a
Arndt, J. E., Jokat, W., and Dorschel, B.: The last glaciation and deglaciation of the Northeast Greenland continental shelf revealed by hydro-acoustic data, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 160, 45–56, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.018, 2017. a, b
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R. M.: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116, 11195–11200, 2019. a
Bindoff, N. L., Stott, P. A., AchutaRao, K. M., Allen, M. R., Gillett, N., Gutzler, D., Hansingo, K., Hegerl, G., Hu, Y., Jain, S., Mokhov, I. I., Overland, J., Perlwitz, J., Sebbari, R., and Zhang X.: Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional, Climate change 2013: the physical science basis, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.022, 2014. a
Blasco, J., Alvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A., and Montoya, M.: Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions, The Cryosphere, 15, 215–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-215-2021, 2021. a
Boers, N., Liu, T., Bathiany, S., Ben-Yami, M., Blaschke, L. L., Bochow, N., Boulton, C. A., Lenton, T. M., Morr, A., Nian, D., Rypdal, M., and Smith, T.: Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements, Nature Geoscience, 18, 949–960, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01787-0, 2025. a
Born, A. and Nisancioglu, K. H.: Melting of Northern Greenland during the last interglaciation, The Cryosphere, 6, 1239–1250, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1239-2012, 2012. a
Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Bartlein, P. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Abe-Ouchi, A., Otto-Bliesner, B., and Zhao, Y.: Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, Nature Climate Change, 2, 417–424, 2012. a
Bradley, S. L., Reerink, T. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., and Helsen, M. M.: Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial–interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice- shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet–ice-shelf model, Clim. Past, 14, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-619-2018, 2018. a, b, c
Bueler, E. and van Pelt, W.: Mass-conserving subglacial hydrology in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model version 0.6, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1613–1635, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1613-2015, 2015. a
Calov, R. and Ganopolski, A.: Multistability and hysteresis in the climate-cryosphere system under orbital forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024518, 2005. a
Calov, R., Robinson, A., Perrette, M., and Ganopolski, A.: Simulating the Greenland ice sheet under present-day and palaeo constraints including a new discharge parameterization, The Cryosphere, 9, 179–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-179-2015, 2015. a
Choi, Y., Morlighem, M., Wood, M., and Bondzio, J. H.: Comparison of four calving laws to model Greenland outlet glaciers, The Cryosphere, 12, 3735–3746, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3735-2018, 2018. a
Evans, J., Ó Cofaigh, C., Dowdeswell, J. A., and Wadhams, P.: Marine geophysical evidence for former expansion and flow of the Greenland Ice Sheet across the north-east Greenland continental shelf, Journal of Quaternary Science: Published for the Quaternary Research Association, 24, 279–293, 2009. a
Eyring, V., Gillett, N., Achuta Rao, K., Barimalala, R., Barreiro Parrillo, M., Bellouin, N., Cassou, C., Durack, P., Kosaka, Y., McGregor, S., Min, S., Morgenstern, O., and Sun, Y.: Human Influence on the Climate System, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 423–552, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.005, 2021. a
Favier, L., Pattyn, F., Berger, S., and Drews, R.: Dynamic influence of pinning points on marine ice-sheet stability: a numerical study in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 10, 2623–2635, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2623-2016, 2016. a
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S., Edwards, T., Golledge, N., Hemer, M., Kopp, R., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1211–1362, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021. a, b
Gallée, H. and Schayes, G.: Development of a three-dimensional meso-γ primitive equation model: katabatic winds simulation in the area of Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, Monthly Weather Review, 122, 671–685, 1994. a
Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., and Winkelmann, R.: The hysteresis of the Antarctic ice sheet, Nature, 585, 538–544, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5, 2020. a
Goelzer, H., Robinson, A., Seroussi, H., and Van De Wal, R. S.: Recent progress in Greenland ice sheet modelling, Current Climate Change Reports, 3, 291–302, 2017. a
Goldberg, D. N.: A variationally derived, depth-integrated approximation to a higher-order glaciological flow model, Journal of Glaciology, 57, 157–170, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311795306763, 2011. a
Grailet, J.-F., Hogan, R. J., Ghilain, N., Bolsée, D., Fettweis, X., and Grégoire, M.: Inclusion of the ECMWF ecRad radiation scheme (v1.5.0) in the MAR (v3.14), regional evaluation for Belgium, and assessment of surface shortwave spectral fluxes at Uccle, Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1965–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1965-2025, 2025. a
Gutiérrez-González, L.: Hysteresis of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future: datasets with the simulations, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15553373, 2025a. a
Gutiérrez-González, L.: Hysteresis of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to the future: video of a quasi-equilibrium simulation, Zenodo [video], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15546141, 2025b. a
Hanna, E., Cappelen, J., Fettweis, X., Mernild, S. H., Mote, T. L., Mottram, R., Steffen, K., Ballinger, T. J., and Hall, R. J.: Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change, International Journal of Climatology, 41, E1336–E1352, 2021. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021. a
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Howat, I. M.: A complete map of Greenland ice velocity derived from satellite data collected over 20 years, Journal of Glaciology, 64, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2017.73, 2018. a
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Schoof, C. G.: Regularized Coulomb friction laws for ice sheet sliding: Application to Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 4764–4771, 2019. a
Juarez-Martinez, A., Blasco, J., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., and Alvarez-Solas, J.: Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations, The Cryosphere, 18, 4257–4283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4257-2024, 2024. a
Khan, S. A., Bjørk, A. A., Bamber, J. L., Morlighem, M., Bevis, M., Kjær, K. H., Mouginot, J., Løkkegaard, A., Holland, D. M., Aschwanden, A., Zhang, B., Helm, V., Korsgaard, N. J., Colgan, W., Larsen, N. K., Liu, L., Hansen, K., Barletta, V., Dahl-Jensen, T. S., Søndergaard, A. S., Csatho, B. M., Sasgen, I., Box, J., and Schenk, T.: Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers, Nature Communications, 11, 5718, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5, 2020. a, b
Khan, S. A., Colgan, W., Neumann, T. A., Van Den Broeke, M. R., Brunt, K. M., Noël, B., Bamber, J. L., Hassan, J., and Bjørk, A. A.: Accelerating ice loss from peripheral glaciers in North Greenland, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL098915, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098915, 2022. a
Kusahara, K., Sato, T., Oka, A., Obase, T., Greve, R., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Hasumi, H.: Modelling the Antarctic marine cryosphere at the Last Glacial Maximum, Annals of Glaciology, 56, 425–435, 2015. a
Larsen, N. K., Levy, L. B., Carlson, A. E., Buizert, C., Olsen, J., Strunk, A., Bjørk, A. A., and Skov, D. S.: Instability of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream over the last 45,000 years, Nature communications, 9, 1872, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04312-7, 2018. a
Lecavalier, B. S., Milne, G. A., Simpson, M. J., Wake, L., Huybrechts, P., Tarasov, L., Kjeldsen, K. K., Funder, S., Long, A. J., Woodroffe, S., Dyke, A. S., and Larsen, N. K.: A model of Greenland ice sheet deglaciation constrained by observations of relative sea level and ice extent, Quaternary Science Reviews, 102, 54–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.07.018, 2014. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
Leger, T. P. M., Clark, C. D., Huynh, C., Jones, S., Ely, J. C., Bradley, S. L., Diemont, C., and Hughes, A. L. C.: A Greenland-wide empirical reconstruction of paleo ice sheet retreat informed by ice extent markers: PaleoGrIS version 1.0, Clim. Past, 20, 701–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-701-2024, 2024. a, b, c, d, e
Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, Proceedings of the national Academy of Sciences, 105, 1786–1793, 2008. a
Lipscomb, W. H., Price, S. F., Hoffman, M. J., Leguy, G. R., Bennett, A. R., Bradley, S. L., Evans, K. J., Fyke, J. G., Kennedy, J. H., Perego, M., Ranken, D. M., Sacks, W. J., Salinger, A. G., Vargo, L. J., and Worley, P. H.: Description and evaluation of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) v2.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 387–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019, 2019. a
Marcos, M. and Amores, A.: Quantifying anthropogenic and natural contributions to thermosteric sea level rise, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 2502–2507, 2014. a
McKay, D. I. A., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a
Meredith, M., Sommerkorn, M., Cassotta, S., Derksen, C., Ekaykin, A., Hollowed, A., Kofinas, G., Mackintosh, A., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Muelbert, M., Ottersen, G., Pritchard, H., and Schuur, E.: Polar Regions, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A., Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., IPCC, WMO, UNEP, 1–173, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.005, 2019. a, b
Moreno-Parada, D., Alvarez-Solas, J., Blasco, J., Montoya, M., and Robinson, A.: Simulating the Laurentide Ice Sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum, The Cryosphere, 17, 2139–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023, 2023. a
Morlighem, M., Williams, C. N., Rignot, E., An, L., Arndt, J. E., Bamber, J. L., Catania, G., Chauché, N., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dorschel, B., Fenty, I., Hogan, K., Howat, I., Hubbard, A., Jakobsson, M., Jordan, T. M., Kjeldsen, K. K., Millan, R., Mayer, L., Mouginot, J., Noël, B. P. Y., O'Cofaigh, C., Palmer, S., Rysgaard, S., Seroussi, H., Siegert, M. J., Slabon, P., Straneo, F., van den Broeke, M. R., Weinrebe, W., Wood, M., and Zinglersen, K. B.: BedMachine v3: Complete bed topography and ocean bathymetry mapping of Greenland from multibeam echo sounding combined with mass conservation, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 11–051, 2017. a, b, c
Morlighem, M., Williams, C., Rignot, E., An, L., Arndt, J., Bamber, J., Catania, G., Chauché, N., Dowdeswell, J. A., Dorschel, B., Fenty, I., Hogan, K., Howat, I., Hubbard, A., Jakobsson, M., Jordan, T. M., Kjeldsen, K. K., Millan, R., Mayer, L., Mouginot, J., Noël, B., O'Cofaigh, C., Palmer, S. J., Rysgaard, S., Seroussi, H., Siegert, M. J., Slabon, P., Straneo, F., van den Broeke, M. R., Weinrebe, W., Wood, M., and Zinglersen, K.: IceBridge BedMachine Greenland, Version 5, Boulder, Colorado USA, NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/GMEVBWFLWA7X, 2022. a, b, c
Mouginot, J., Rignot, E., Bjørk, A. A., van den Broeke, M., Millan, R., Morlighem, M., Noël, B., Scheuchl, B., and Wood, M.: Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116, 9239–9244, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1904242116, 2019. a, b
Niu, L., Lohmann, G., Hinck, S., Gowan, E. J., and Krebs-Kanzow, U.: The sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to atmospheric forcing during the last glacial cycle using PMIP3 models, J. Glaciol., 65, 645–661, 2019. a
Noël, B., Van Kampenhout, L., Lenaerts, J., Van de Berg, W., and Van Den Broeke, M.: A 21st century warming threshold for sustained Greenland ice sheet mass loss, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL090471, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090471, 2021. a, b
Obase, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Kusahara, K., Hasumi, H., and Ohgaito, R.: Responses of basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves to the climatic forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum and CO2 doubling, Journal of Climate, 30, 3473–3497, 2017. a
Pattyn, F., Ritz, C., Hanna, E., Asay-Davis, X., DeConto, R., Durand, G., Favier, L., Fettweis, X., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Kuipers Munneke, P., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Robinson, A., Seroussi, H., Trusel, L. D., and van den Broeke, M.: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5C global warming, Nature Climate Change, 8, 1053–1061, 2018. a
Pellicciotti, F., Brock, B., Strasser, U., Burlando, P., Funk, M., and Corripio, J.: An enhanced temperature-index glacier melt model including the shortwave radiation balance: development and testing for Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland, Journal of Glaciology, 51, 573–587, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756505781829124, 2005. a
Petrini, M., Scherrenberg, M. D. W., Muntjewerf, L., Vizcaino, M., Sellevold, R., Leguy, G. R., Lipscomb, W. H., and Goelzer, H.: A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt, The Cryosphere, 19, 63–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-63-2025, 2025. a
Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A.: Greenland ice sheet model parameters constrained using simulations of the Eemian Interglacial, Clim. Past, 7, 381–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-381-2011, 2011. a
Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., Montoya, M., Goelzer, H., Greve, R., and Ritz, C.: Description and validation of the ice-sheet model Yelmo (version 1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2805–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2805-2020, 2020. a, b
Robinson, A., Goldberg, D., and Lipscomb, W. H.: A comparison of the stability and performance of depth-integrated ice-dynamics solvers, The Cryosphere, 16, 689–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-689-2022, 2022. a
Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., Montoya, M., Goelzer, H., Greve, R., and Ritz, C.: Yelmo ice-sheet model code base, GitHub [code], https://github.com/palma-ice/yelmo, last access: 30 May 2025a. a
Robinson, A., Calov, R., and Ganopolski, A.: Yelmo ice-sheet model code base, GitHub [code], https://github.com/palma-ice/rembo, last access: 30 May 2025b. a
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000664, 2007. a
Shapiro, N. M. and Ritzwoller, M. H.: Inferring surface heat flux distributions guided by a global seismic model: particular application to Antarctica, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 223, 213–224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.04.011, 2004. a
Simpson, M. J., Milne, G. A., Huybrechts, P., and Long, A. J.: Calibrating a glaciological model of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to present-day using field observations of relative sea level and ice extent, Quaternary Science Reviews, 28, 1631–1657, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.03.004, 2009. a
Slangen, A. B., Church, J. A., Zhang, X., and Monselesan, D.: Detection and attribution of global mean thermosteric sea level change, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 5951–5959, 2014. a
Stone, E. J., Lunt, D. J., Rutt, I. C., and Hanna, E.: Investigating the sensitivity of numerical model simulations of the modern state of the Greenland ice-sheet and its future response to climate change, The Cryosphere, 4, 397–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-397-2010, 2010. a
Stone, E. J., Lunt, D. J., Annan, J. D., and Hargreaves, J. C.: Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise, Clim. Past, 9, 621–639, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-621-2013, 2013. a
Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Latychev, K., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Mitrovica, J.: FastIsostasy v1.0 – a regional, accelerated 2D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model accounting for the lateral variability of the solid Earth, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5263–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, 2024. a
Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Latychev, K., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Mitrovica, J.: FastIsostasy regional GIA model code base, GitHub [code], https://github.com/palma-ice/FastIsostasy, last access: 30 May 2025. a
Tabone, I., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Montoya, M.: Impact of millennial-scale oceanic variability on the Greenland ice-sheet evolution throughout the last glacial period, Clim. Past, 15, 593–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-593-2019, 2019a. a
Tabone, I., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Montoya, M.: Submarine melt as a potential trigger of the North East Greenland Ice Stream margin retreat during Marine Isotope Stage 3, The Cryosphere, 13, 1911–1923, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1911-2019, 2019b. a
Tedesco, M., Colosio, P., Fettweis, X., and Cervone, G.: A computationally efficient statistically downscaled 100 m resolution Greenland product from the regional climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 17, 5061–5074, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5061-2023, 2023. a
Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V. D. C., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., Van De Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., Mcnally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., Rayner, N .A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: A journal of the atmospheric sciences, Applied Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, 131, 2961–3012, 2005. a
van den Berg, J., van de Wal, R., and Oerlemans, H.: A mass balance model for the Eurasian Ice Sheet for the last 120,000 years, Global and Planetary Change, 61, 194–208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.08.015, 2008. a
Waelbroeck, C., Labeyrie, L., Michel, E., Duplessy, J.-C., Mcmanus, J. F., Lambeck, K., Balbon, E., and Labracherie, M.: Sea-level and deep water temperature changes derived from benthic foraminifera isotopic records, Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, 295–305, 2002. a
Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., He, Y., Freer, J., and Cloke, H. L.: Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 19, 623–633, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-623-2012, 2012. a
Wilson, N., Straneo, F., and Heimbach, P.: Satellite-derived submarine melt rates and mass balance (2011–2015) for Greenland's largest remaining ice tongues, The Cryosphere, 11, 2773–2782, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2773-2017, 2017. a, b, c, d
Winsor, K., Carlson, A. E., Welke, B. M., and Reilly, B.: Early deglacial onset of southwestern Greenland ice-sheet retreat on the continental shelf, Quaternary Science Reviews, 128, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.10.008, 2015. a
Zeitz, M., Haacker, J. M., Donges, J. F., Albrecht, T., and Winkelmann, R.: Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022. a, b
Zwally, H. J., Giovinetto, M. B., Beckley, M. A., and Saba, J. L.: Antarctic and Greenland Drainage Systems, Tech. rep., GSFC Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/polar-altimetry/antarctic-and-greenland-drainage-systems (last access: 2 February 2026), 2012. a, b, c, d
Short summary
The Greenland ice sheet is considered a tipping element: if temperatures exceed its threshold, it would transition to a virtually ice-free state and the ice losses could be irreversible on very long timescales. We study its stability across the full range of glacial-interglacial temperatures, as well as those expected in coming centuries. We find a future critical threshold between 1.5-2ºC of global warming, another under colder climates, and persistent hysteresis across the full range of study.
The Greenland ice sheet is considered a tipping element: if temperatures exceed its threshold,...
