Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1047-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1047-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 11 Feb 2026
| 11 Feb 2026
Stabilizing feedbacks allow for multiple states of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a fully coupled Earth System – Ice Sheet Model
Malena Andernach
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
International Max Planck Research School for Earth System Modelling (IMPRS), Hamburg, Germany
Marie-Luise Kapsch
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Uwe Mikolajewicz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
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Malena Andernach, Marie-Luise Kapsch, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
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Using a comprehensive set of simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model, we disentangle and quantify the impacts of a disintegrated Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on the global climate, including the deep ocean. We find most of the climate response is driven by Greenland’s lower elevation and enhanced by changed surface properties, although regional differences exist. Despite the confinement of most responses to the Arctic, the GrIS also influences remote climates.
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The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
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Katharina Dorothea Six and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-27, 2022
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
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Wunderling, N., von der Heydt, A. S., Aksenov, Y., Barker, S., Bastiaansen, R., Brovkin, V., Brunetti, M., Couplet, V., Kleinen, T., Lear, C. H., Lohmann, J., Roman-Cuesta, R. M., Sinet, S., Swingedouw, D., Winkelmann, R., Anand, P., Barichivich, J., Bathiany, S., Baudena, M., Bruun, J. T., Chiessi, C. M., Coxall, H. K., Docquier, D., Donges, J. F., Falkena, S. K. J., Klose, A. K., Obura, D., Rocha, J., Rynders, S., Steinert, N. J., and Willeit, M.: Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024b. a
Zeitz, M., Reese, R., Beckmann, J., Krebs-Kanzow, U., and Winkelmann, R.: Impact of the melt–albedo feedback on the future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet with PISM-dEBM-simple, The Cryosphere, 15, 5739–5764, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Zeitz, M., Haacker, J. M., Donges, J. F., Albrecht, T., and Winkelmann, R.: Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022. a, b
Ziemen, F. A., Kapsch, M.-L., Klockmann, M., and Mikolajewicz, U.: Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations, Clim. Past, 15, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, 2019. a
Short summary
Using a fully-coupled climate-ice sheet model, we find that the Greenland Ice Sheet has at least four steady states under pre-industrial CO2 concentrations, which are stabilized by several climate-ice sheet feedbacks. We also show that interactions with the Antarctic Ice Sheet impact the timing of some state transitions. The multistability implies that once a certain volume threshold is passed, the mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet would be irreversible under subsequently reduced CO2 levels.
Using a fully-coupled climate-ice sheet model, we find that the Greenland Ice Sheet has at least...
