Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1047-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1047-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 11 Feb 2026
| 11 Feb 2026
Stabilizing feedbacks allow for multiple states of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a fully coupled Earth System – Ice Sheet Model
Malena Andernach
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
International Max Planck Research School for Earth System Modelling (IMPRS), Hamburg, Germany
Marie-Luise Kapsch
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Uwe Mikolajewicz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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We simulate the transient quasi-equilibrium response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to a range of atmospheric CO2 forcings, using a comprehensive Earth System Model with dynamic ice sheets. We show that the present-day Greenland Ice Sheet disintegrates at a long-term global warming of 2.55 ± 0.15 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Climate feedbacks cause hysteresis and a stepwise regrowth. Full recovery of the ice sheet requires temperatures of 1.3 ± 0.1 °C below pre-industrial.
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Using a comprehensive set of simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model, we disentangle and quantify the impacts of a disintegrated Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on the global climate, including the deep ocean. We find most of the climate response is driven by Greenland’s lower elevation and enhanced by changed surface properties, although regional differences exist. Despite the confinement of most responses to the Arctic, the GrIS also influences remote climates.
Malena Andernach, Marie-Luise Kapsch, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
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We simulate the transient quasi-equilibrium response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to a range of atmospheric CO2 forcings, using a comprehensive Earth System Model with dynamic ice sheets. We show that the present-day Greenland Ice Sheet disintegrates at a long-term global warming of 2.55 ± 0.15 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Climate feedbacks cause hysteresis and a stepwise regrowth. Full recovery of the ice sheet requires temperatures of 1.3 ± 0.1 °C below pre-industrial.
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A fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice-sheet–solid-earth model was applied to simulate the time from the Last Glacial Maximum (about 25 000 years before the present) to the pre-industrial period. The model simulations are compared to observational estimates. During this climate transition, the model simulates several abrupt changes in the North Atlantic region, which are initiated by different processes. The underlying mechanisms are analysed and described.
Malena Andernach, Marie-Luise Kapsch, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 451–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025, 2025
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Katharina Dorothea Six and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-27, 2022
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We developed a global ocean biogeochemical model with a zoom on the Benguela upwelling system. We show that the high spatial resolution is necessary to capture long-term trends of oxygen of the recent past. The regional anthropogenic carbon uptake over the last century is lower than compared to a coarser resolution ocean model as used in Earth system models. This suggests that, at least for some regions, the changes projected by these Earth system models are associated with high uncertainty.
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Short summary
Using a fully-coupled climate-ice sheet model, we find that the Greenland Ice Sheet has at least four steady states under pre-industrial CO2 concentrations, which are stabilized by several climate-ice sheet feedbacks. We also show that interactions with the Antarctic Ice Sheet impact the timing of some state transitions. The multistability implies that once a certain volume threshold is passed, the mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet would be irreversible under subsequently reduced CO2 levels.
Using a fully-coupled climate-ice sheet model, we find that the Greenland Ice Sheet has at least...
