Articles | Volume 19, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6547-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6547-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Dec 2025
Research article |
| 05 Dec 2025
| 05 Dec 2025
Assessing uncertainties in modeling the climate of the Siberian frozen soils by contrasting CMIP6 and LS3MIP
Zhicheng Luo
Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt a.M., Germany
Danny Risto
Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt a.M., Germany
Bodo Ahrens
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt a.M., Germany
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Christian Czakay, Larisa Tarasova, and Bodo Ahrens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3532, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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In this study, we simulated streamflow in German river catchments for climate projections using a deep learning model. Flood-generating processes were identified using explainable artificial intelligence. In the median, the models project mostly less rain-on-snow floods in Germany in the future and an overall lower importance of snowmelt. The average and strongest rain-on-snow floods will have a higher magnitude. The trends found for the individual climate models can vary considerably.
Fanni D. Kelemen, Richard Lohmann, Jiang Zhu, and Bodo Ahrens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4923, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
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The arrangement of continents and oceans strongly affects climate by shaping large-scale circulation patterns. We study how early Eocene geography (53.5 Ma) influenced mid-latitude storms and persistent high-pressure systems, focusing on the shallow West Siberian Sea and absent Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Using climate model simulations, we track cyclones, and the data shows increased northern and decreased southern mid-latitude storm activity compared to today.
Richard Lohmann, Christopher Purr, and Bodo Ahrens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3670, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
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This study investigates the relationship between atmospheric blocking and the extreme events heatwaves, heavy rainfall and calm events in Germany in atmospheric reanalyses and CMIP6 climate simulations. In the reanalyses, the statistical relationship is more pronounced between blocking and calms than between blocking and heavy precipitation. In the simulated future climate, the frequency of the three extreme event types increases with nearly unchanged relationship of blocking with the extremes.
Prashant Singh and Bodo Ahrens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1728, 2025
Short summary
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Intense deep convective clouds (e.g. lightning events) can rapidly move water vapour and other gases into the upper troposphere. The Third Pole region, especially the Himalayas, frequently experiences such storms. ICON-CLM (3.3 km) and ERA5 reanalysis data (30 km), these convective events can lift water vapour into the upper troposphere but rarely into the lower stratosphere in the Third Pole. After reaching the upper troposphere, the water vapour tends to move horizontally away from the region.
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Amelie Hoff, Anika Obermann-Hellhund, Timo Keber, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-24, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The Vb-cyclones simulated with a coupled regional climate model with two different driving data sets are compared against each other in historical period, thereafter the future climate predictions were analyzed. The Vb-cyclones in two simulations agree well in terms of their occurrence, intensity and track in two simulations, though there are discrepancies in seasonal cycles and their process linking Mediterranean Sea in historical period. So significant changes were observed in the future.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
Short summary
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We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
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Short summary
Climate models face challenges in accurately simulating cold regions' soil temperatures and snow conditions. By comparing different models, we found that the land surface models have a strong impact on simulation errors. Additionally, they struggle to account for snow’s insulating effect on the ground properly. Our findings highlight the need for improving frozen soil simulation, which is crucial for understanding the climate impacts of frozen soil.
Climate models face challenges in accurately simulating cold regions' soil temperatures and snow...
