Assessing uncertainties in modeling the climate of the Siberian frozen soils by contrasting CMIP6 and LS3MIP

Luo, Zhicheng; Risto, Danny; Ahrens, Bodo

doi:10.5194/tc-19-6547-2025

Articles | Volume 19, issue 12

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6547-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6547-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 12

Research article

|

05 Dec 2025

Research article |

| 05 Dec 2025

Assessing uncertainties in modeling the climate of the Siberian frozen soils by contrasting CMIP6 and LS3MIP

Zhicheng Luo, Danny Risto, and Bodo Ahrens

Data sets

ERA5-Land monthly averaged data from 1950 to present J. Muñoz-Sabater https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.68d2bb30

CMIP6 simulations of the CNRM-CERFACS based on CNRM-CM6-1 model for CMIP experiment historical, Version YYYYMMDD[1] A. Voldoire https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4066

CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-CM6-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 LS3MIP land-hist, Version YYYYMMDD[1] A. Voldoire https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4095

CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Version YYYYMMDD[1] R. Seferian https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4068

CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 LS3MIP land-hist. Version YYYYMMDD[1] A. Voldoire https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.9599

IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Version YYYYMMDD[1] O. Boucher et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5195

IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 LS3MIP land-hist, Version YYYYMMDD[1] O. Boucher et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5205

MIROC MIROC6 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Version YYYYMMDD[1] H. Tatebe and M. Watanabe https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5603

MIROC MIROC6 model output prepared for CMIP6 LS3MIP land-hist, Version YYYYMMDD[1] Y. Onuma and H. Kim https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5622

MOHC HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Version YYYYMMDD[1] J. Ridley et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6109

MOHC HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 LS3MIP, Version YYYYMMDD[1] A. Wiltshire et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.14460

MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Version YYYYMMDD[1] Y. Tang et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6113

MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 LS3MIP, Version YYYYMMDD[1] A. Wiltshire et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.14462

NCAR CESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical, Version YYYYMMDD[1] G. Danabasoglu https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7627

NCAR CESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 LS3MIP land-hist, Version YYYYMMDD[1] G. Danabasoglu https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7650

Model code and software

Code and scripts for: [Assessing Uncertainties in Modeling the Climate of the Siberian Frozen Soils by Contrasting CMIP6 and LS3MIP] Zhicheng Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17157176

Short summary

Climate models face challenges in accurately simulating cold regions' soil temperatures and snow conditions. By comparing different models, we found that the land surface models have a strong impact on simulation errors. Additionally, they struggle to account for snow’s insulating effect on the ground properly. Our findings highlight the need for improving frozen soil simulation, which is crucial for understanding the climate impacts of frozen soil.