Future changes in Antarctic near-surface winds: regional variability and key drivers under a high-emission scenario

Davrinche, Cécile; Orsi, Anaïs; Amory, Charles; Kittel, Christoph; Agosta, Cécile

doi:10.5194/tc-19-6023-2025

Articles | Volume 19, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6023-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6023-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 11

Research article

|

20 Nov 2025

Research article |

| 20 Nov 2025

Future changes in Antarctic near-surface winds: regional variability and key drivers under a high-emission scenario

Cécile Davrinche, Anaïs Orsi, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Cécile Agosta

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6023-2025-supplement

Data sets

Future changes in Antarctic near-surface winds: regional variability and key drivers under a high-emission scenario C. Davrinche et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14191007

AntAWS Dataset: A compilation of Antarctic automatic weather station observations, Version 1.0 Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.48567/key7-ch19

Short summary

We analyse changes in Antarctic winter surface winds projected by 4 models. Depending on the area and model, changes on the continent by 2100 reveal opposing trends. Nevertheless, models agree on a strengthening of surface winds in Adélie Land for example and a weakening in some other areas such as the Amundsen region. We attribute the strengthening of near-surface winds to changes in the large-sale atmospheric circulation and the weakening to changes in the structure of the lower atmosphere.