The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5871-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5871-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19, issue 11
Research article
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18 Nov 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 18 Nov 2025

Recent history and future demise of Jostedalsbreen, the largest ice cap in mainland Europe

Henning Åkesson, Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen, Thomas Vikhamar Schuler, Thorben Dunse, Liss Marie Andreassen, Mette Kusk Gillespie, Benjamin Aubrey Robson, Thomas Schellenberger, and Jacob Clement Yde

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This study demonstrates that The Jostedalsbreen ice cap, which is the largest ice cap on the European mainland (458 km2 in 2019), is now in a mode of irreversable mass loss. The ice cap may lose up to 74% of its present-day volume until 2100, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, which will have direct consequences for human and social interests.
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Short summary
We model the historical and future evolution of the Jostedalsbreen ice cap in Norway, projecting substantial and largely irreversible mass loss for the 21st century, and that the ice cap will split into three parts. Further mass loss is in the pipeline, with a disappearance during the 22nd century under high emissions. Our study demonstrates an approach to model complex ice masses, highlights uncertainties due to precipitation, and calls for further research on long-term future glacier change.
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Improving the contribution of the land cryosphere to sea level...