Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5231-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5231-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 30 Oct 2025
| 30 Oct 2025
Seasonal variability of ocean heat transport and ice-shelf basal melt around Antarctica
Fabio Boeira Dias
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centre of Marine Science and Innovation, University of New South Wales, Sydney NSW, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Hobart / Nipaluna TAS, Australia
Matthew H. England
Centre of Marine Science and Innovation, University of New South Wales, Sydney NSW, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Hobart / Nipaluna TAS, Australia
Adele K. Morrison
Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra ACT, Australia
Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
Australian Antarctic Division, Hobart / Nipaluna TAS, Australia
The Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, Hobart / Nipaluna TAS, Australia
Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Hobart / Nipaluna TAS, Australia
Related authors
Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Richard Porter-Smith, Sue Cook, Eva Cougnon, David E. Gwyther, Wilma G. C. Huneke, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Xylar Asay-Davis, Fabio Boeira Dias, Michael S. Dinniman, David Holland, Kazuya Kusahara, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Keith W. Nicholls, Charles Pelletier, Ole Richter, Hélène Seroussi, and Ralph Timmermann
The Cryosphere, 19, 6507–6525, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6507-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6507-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying melt and freeze beneath Antarctica’s floating ice shelves is vital to understanding present-day ice-sheet behavior and its potential to contribute to future sea-level rise. We compare 10 ice-shelf/ocean computer simulations with satellite data, providing the first multi-model estimate of melting and refreezing driven by the ocean. This new estimate offers a valuable tool for assessing ice-shelf roles in current and future ice-sheet changes, informing coastal adaptation strategies.
Yafei Nie, Chengkun Li, Martin Vancoppenolle, Bin Cheng, Fabio Boeira Dias, Xianqing Lv, and Petteri Uotila
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1395–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
State-of-the-art Earth system models simulate the observed sea ice extent relatively well, but this is often due to errors in the dynamic and other processes in the simulated sea ice changes cancelling each other out. We assessed the sensitivity of these processes simulated by the coupled ocean–sea ice model NEMO4.0-SI3 to 18 parameters. The performance of the model in simulating sea ice change processes was ultimately improved by adjusting the three identified key parameters.
Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Richard Porter-Smith, Sue Cook, Eva Cougnon, David E. Gwyther, Wilma G. C. Huneke, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Xylar Asay-Davis, Fabio Boeira Dias, Michael S. Dinniman, David Holland, Kazuya Kusahara, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Keith W. Nicholls, Charles Pelletier, Ole Richter, Hélène Seroussi, and Ralph Timmermann
The Cryosphere, 19, 6507–6525, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6507-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6507-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying melt and freeze beneath Antarctica’s floating ice shelves is vital to understanding present-day ice-sheet behavior and its potential to contribute to future sea-level rise. We compare 10 ice-shelf/ocean computer simulations with satellite data, providing the first multi-model estimate of melting and refreezing driven by the ocean. This new estimate offers a valuable tool for assessing ice-shelf roles in current and future ice-sheet changes, informing coastal adaptation strategies.
Claire K. Yung, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Adele K. Morrison, Andrew McC. Hogg, and Yoshihiro Nakayama
The Cryosphere, 19, 5827–5861, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5827-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5827-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean models are used to understand how the ocean interacts with the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but they are too coarse in resolution to capture the small-scale ocean processes driving melting and require a parameterisation to predict melt. Previous parameterisations ignore key processes occurring in some regions of Antarctica. We develop a parameterisation with the feedback of stratification on melting and test it in idealised and regional ocean models, finding changes to melt rate and circulation.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Clara Burgard, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8333–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Morven Muilwijk, Tore Hattermann, Rebecca L. Beadling, Neil C. Swart, Aleksi Nummelin, Chuncheng Guo, David M. Chandler, Petra Langebroek, Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Stephen M. Griffies, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Ombeline Jouet, Qian Li, Torge Martin, John Marshall, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Zihan Song, Inga J. Smith, Max Thomas, Irene Trombini, Eveline van der Linden, and Xiaoqi Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3747, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic meltwater affects ocean stratification and temperature, which in turn influences the rate of ice shelf melting—a coupling missing in most climate models. We analyze a suite of climate models with added meltwater to explore this feedback in different regions. While meltwater generally enhances ocean warming and melt, in West Antarctica most models simulate coastal cooling, suggesting a negative feedback that could slow future ice loss there.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1942, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
ISOMIP+ compares 12 ocean models that simulate ice-ocean interactions in a common, idealised, static ice shelf cavity setup, aiming to assess and understand inter-model variability. Models simulate similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties and spatial distributions of melting. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
Qin Zhou, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Tore Hattermann, David Gwyther, and Benjamin Galton-Fenzi
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8243–8265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an accelerated forcing approach to address timescale discrepancies between the ice sheets and ocean components in coupled modelling by reducing the ocean simulation duration. The approach is evaluated using idealized coupled models, and its limitations in real-world applications are discussed. Our results suggest it can be a valuable tool for process-oriented coupled ice sheet–ocean modelling and downscaling climate simulations with such models.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Poul Christoffersen
The Cryosphere, 18, 5117–5137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research delves into the future evolution of Antarctica's Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) and its potential contribution to sea level rise, focusing on how basal melt is implemented at the grounding line in ice flow models. Our findings suggest that these implementation methods can significantly impact the magnitude of future ice loss projections. Under a high-emission scenario, the WSB ice sheet could undergo massive and rapid retreat between 2200 and 2300.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Laurie C. Menviel, Paul Spence, Andrew E. Kiss, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Hakase Hayashida, Matthew H. England, and Darryn Waugh
Biogeosciences, 20, 4413–4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4413-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the ocean absorbs 25% of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on the flux of carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere. Here, we use a very high-resolution ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle model to show that the capability of the Southern Ocean to uptake CO2 has decreased over the last 40 years due to a strengthening and poleward shift of the southern hemispheric westerlies. This trend is expected to continue over the coming century.
Felicity S. McCormack, Jason L. Roberts, Bernd Kulessa, Alan Aitken, Christine F. Dow, Lawrence Bird, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Katharina Hochmuth, Richard S. Jones, Andrew N. Mackintosh, and Koi McArthur
The Cryosphere, 17, 4549–4569, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in Antarctic surface elevation can cause changes in ice and basal water flow, impacting how much ice enters the ocean. We find that ice and basal water flow could divert from the Totten to the Vanderford Glacier, East Antarctica, under only small changes in the surface elevation, with implications for estimates of ice loss from this region. Further studies are needed to determine when this could occur and if similar diversions could occur elsewhere in Antarctica due to climate change.
Andrew P. Schurer, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Hugues Goosse, Massimo A. Bollasina, Matthew H. England, Michael J. Mineter, Doug M. Smith, and Simon F. B. Tett
Clim. Past, 19, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-943-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt an existing data assimilation technique to constrain a model simulation to follow three important modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. How it compares to the observed climate is evaluated, with improvements over simulations without data assimilation found over many regions, particularly the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe, and discrepancies with global cooling following volcanic eruptions are reconciled.
Yafei Nie, Chengkun Li, Martin Vancoppenolle, Bin Cheng, Fabio Boeira Dias, Xianqing Lv, and Petteri Uotila
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1395–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
State-of-the-art Earth system models simulate the observed sea ice extent relatively well, but this is often due to errors in the dynamic and other processes in the simulated sea ice changes cancelling each other out. We assessed the sensitivity of these processes simulated by the coupled ocean–sea ice model NEMO4.0-SI3 to 18 parameters. The performance of the model in simulating sea ice change processes was ultimately improved by adjusting the three identified key parameters.
Madelaine Rosevear, Benjamin Galton-Fenzi, and Craig Stevens
Ocean Sci., 18, 1109–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1109-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding ocean-driven melting of Antarctic ice shelves is critical for predicting future sea level. However, ocean observations from beneath ice shelves are scarce. Here, we present unique ocean and melting data from the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica. We use our observations to evaluate common methods of representing melting in ocean–climate models (melting
parameterisations) and show that these parameterisations overestimate melting when the ocean is warm and/or currents are weak.
Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, and Tore Hattermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5421–5439, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5421-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a coupled ice–ocean model to explore an oscillation feature found in several contributing models to MISOMIP1. The oscillation is closely related to the discretized grounding line retreat and likely strengthened by the buoyancy–melt feedback and/or melt–geometry feedback near the grounding line, and frequent ice–ocean coupling. Our model choices have a non-trivial impact on mean melt and ocean circulation strength, which might be interesting for the coupled ice–ocean community.
Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Matt A. King, and Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi
The Cryosphere, 16, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tidal currents may play an important role in Antarctic ice sheet retreat by changing the rate at which the ocean melts glaciers. Here, using a computational ocean model, we derive the first estimate of present-day tidal melting that covers all of Antarctica. Our results suggest that large-scale ocean models aiming to accurately predict ice melt rates will need to account for the effects of tides. The inclusion of tide-induced friction at the ice–ocean interface should be prioritized.
Yu Wang, Chen Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Ben Galton-Fenzi, and Roland Warner
The Cryosphere, 16, 1221–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf and its spatial pattern are evaluated and analysed through temperature observations from six boreholes and numerical simulations. The simulations demonstrate significant ice warming downstream along the ice flow and a great variation of the thermal structure across the ice flow. We suggest that the thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf is unlikely to be affected by current climate changes on decadal timescales.
Ole Richter, David E. Gwyther, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, and Kaitlin A. Naughten
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 617–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-617-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-617-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present an improved model of the Antarctic continental shelf ocean and demonstrate that it is capable of reproducing present-day conditions. The improvements are fundamental and regard the inclusion of tides and ocean eddies. We conclude that the model is well suited to gain new insights into processes that are important for Antarctic ice sheet retreat and global ocean changes. Hence, the model will ultimately help to improve projections of sea level rise and climate change.
Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, Chen Zhao, Lenneke Jong, Yuwei Xia, Xiaoran Guo, Konstantinos Petrakopoulos, Thomas Zwinger, Daniel Shapero, and John Moore
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 889–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, and hence its contribution to sea level rise, is highly sensitive to melting of its floating ice shelves. This melt is caused by warm ocean currents coming into contact with the ice. Computer models used for future ice sheet projections are not able to realistically evolve these melt rates. We describe a new coupling framework to enable ice sheet and ocean computer models to interact, allowing projection of the evolution of melt and its impact on sea level.
Cited articles
Achter, G. V., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Pelletier, C., Sterlin, J., Huot, P. V., Lemieux, J. F., Fraser, A. D., Haubner, K., and Porter-Smith, R.: Modelling landfast sea ice and its influence on ocean–ice interactions in the area of the Totten Glacier, East Antarctica, Ocean Model., 169, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2021.101920, 2022. a, b
Alley, K. E., Scambos, T. A., Siegfried, M. R., and Fricker, H. A.: Impacts of warm water on Antarctic ice shelf stability through basal channel formation, Nat. Geosci., 9, 290–293, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2675, 2016. a
Aoki, S., Takahashi, T., Yamazaki, K., Hirano, D., Ono, K., Kusahara, K., Tamura, T., and Williams, G. D.: Warm surface waters increase Antarctic ice shelf melt and delay dense water formation, Communications Earth and Environment, 3, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00456-z, 2022. a, b
Arzeno, I. B., Beardsley, R. C., Limeburner, R., Owens, B., Padman, L., Springer, S. R., Stewart, C. L., and Williams, M. J.: Ocean variability contributing to basal melt rate near the ice front of Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 119, 4214–4233, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC009792, 2014. a, b
Assmann, K. M., Darelius, E., Wåhlin, A. K., Kim, T. W., and Lee, S. H.: Warm Circumpolar Deep Water at the Western Getz Ice Shelf Front, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 870–878, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081354, 2019. a
Boeira Dias, F., England, M., Morrison, A., and Galton-Fenzi, B. K.: High-resolution (4-km) circum-Antarctic ocean-ice shelf model: Whole Antarctica Ocean Model (WAOM4), Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania (UTAS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.25959/waom4-2025a, 2025. a
Bromwich, D. H., Nicolas, J. P., and Monaghan, A. J.: An Assessment of precipitation changes over antarctica and the southern ocean since 1989 in contemporary global reanalyses, J. Climate, 24, 4189–4209, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4074.1, 2011. a
Christie, F. D., Bingham, R. G., Gourmelen, N., Tett, S. F., and Muto, A.: Four-decade record of pervasive grounding line retreat along the Bellingshausen margin of West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett, 43, 5741–5749, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068972, 2016. a
Christie, F. D. W., Bingham, R. G., Gourmelen, N., Steig, E. J., Bisset, R. R., Pritchard, H. D., Snow, K., and Tett, S. F. B.: Glacier change along West Antarctica's Marie Byrd Land Sector and links to inter-decadal atmosphere–ocean variability, The Cryosphere, 12, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2461-2018, 2018. a
Clem, K. R., Raphael, M. N., Adusumilli, S., Amory, C., Baiman, R., Banwell, A. F., Barreira, S., Beadling, R. L., Bozkurt, D., Colwell, S., Coy, L., Datta, R. T., Deb, P., Laat, J. D., du Plessis, M., Fernandez, D., Fogt, R. L., Fricker, H. A., Gille, S. T., Johnson, B., Josey, S. A., Keller, L. M., Kramarova, N. A., Kromer, J., Leslie, R. L., Lazzara, M. A., Lieser, J. L., MacFerrin, M., MacGilchrist, G. M., MacLennan, M. L., Marouchos, A., Massom, R. A., McMahon, C. R., Mikolajczyk, D. E., Mote, T. L., Newman, P. A., Norton, T., Petropavlovskikh, I., Pezzi, L. P., Pitts, M., Reid, P., Santee, M. L., Scambos, T. A., Schulz, C., Shi, J.-R., Souza, E., Stammerjohn, S., Thomalla, S., Tripathy, S. C., Trusel, L. D., Turner, K., and Yin, Z.: Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 105, S331–S370, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0099.1, 2024. a
Cook, S., Nicholls, K. W., Vaňková, I., Thompson, S. S., and Galton-Fenzi, B. K.: Data initiatives for ocean-driven melt of Antarctic ice shelves, Ann. Glaciol., 45, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.6, 2023. a
Cougnon, E. A., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Rintoul, S. R., Legrésy, B., Williams, G. D., Fraser, A. D., and Hunter, J. R.: Regional Changes in Icescape Impact Shelf Circulation and Basal Melting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11,519–11,527, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074943, 2017. a
Davis, P. E., Jenkins, A., Nicholls, K. W., Brennan, P. V., Abrahamsen, E. P., Heywood, K. J., Dutrieux, P., Cho, K. H., and Kim, T. W.: Variability in Basal Melting Beneath Pine Island Ice Shelf on Weekly to Monthly Timescales, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 8655–8669, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014464, 2018. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., Mcnally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a, b, c
Dias, F. B., Domingues, C. M., Marsland, S. J., Rintoul, S. R., Uotila, P., Fiedler, R., Mata, M. M., Bindoff, N. L., and Savita, A.: Subpolar Southern Ocean Response to Changes in the Surface Momentum, Heat, and Freshwater Fluxes under 2xCO2, J. Climate, 34, 8755–8775, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0161.1, 2021. a
Dias, F. B., Rintoul, S. R., Richter, O., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Zika, J. D., Pellichero, V., and Uotila, P.: Sensitivity of simulated water mass transformation on the Antarctic shelf to tides, topography and model resolution, Frontiers in Marine Science, 10, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1027704, 2023. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Dinniman, M. S., Klinck, J. M., and Smith, W. O.: Influence of sea ice cover and icebergs on circulation and water mass formation in a numerical circulation model of the Ross Sea, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC004036, 2007. a
Dotto, T. S., Garabato, A. C. N., Wåhlin, A. K., Bacon, S., Holland, P. R., Kimura, S., Tsamados, M., Herraiz-Borreguero, L., Kalén, O., and Jenkins, A.: Control of the Oceanic Heat Content of the Getz-Dotson Trough, Antarctica, by the Amundsen Sea Low, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016113, 2020. a, b
Drews, R.: Evolution of ice-shelf channels in Antarctic ice shelves, The Cryosphere, 9, 1169–1181, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1169-2015, 2015. a
Dundas, V., Darelius, E., Daae, K., Steiger, N., Nakayama, Y., and Kim, T.-W.: Hydrography, circulation, and response to atmospheric forcing in the vicinity of the central Getz Ice Shelf, Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, Ocean Sci., 18, 1339–1359, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1339-2022, 2022. a
Edwards, T. L., Nowicki, S., Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Jourdain, N. C., Slater, D. A., Turner, F. E., Smith, C. J., McKenna, C. M., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Gregory, J. M., Larour, E., Lipscomb, W. H., Payne, A. J., Shepherd, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Anderson, B., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bliss, A., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Champollion, N., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Fujita, K., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huss, M., Huybrechts, P., Immerzeel, W., Kleiner, T., Kraaijenbrink, P., clec'h, S. L., Lee, V., Leguy, G. R., Little, C. M., Lowry, D. P., Malles, J. H., Martin, D. F., Maussion, F., Morlighem, M., O'Neill, J. F., Nias, I., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Radić, V., Reese, R., Rounce, D. R., Rückamp, M., Sakai, A., Shafer, C., Schlegel, N. J., Shannon, S., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Tarasov, L., Trusel, L. D., Breedam, J. V., van de Wal, R., van den Broeke, M., Winkelmann, R., Zekollari, H., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise, Nature, 593, 74–82, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y, 2021. a, b
Egbert, G. D. and Erofeeva, S. Y.: Efficient Inverse Modeling of Barotropic Ocean Tides, Tech. rep., https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2002)019<0183:EIMOBO>2.0.CO;2, 2002. a
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdótti, G., Drijfhout, S., Edwards, T., Golledge, M. H. N., Kopp, R., Krinner, G., Mix, D. N. A., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, Tech. rep., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2023. a, b
Fraser, A. D., Wongpan, P., Langhorne, P. J., Klekociuk, A. R., Kusahara, K., Lannuzel, D., Massom, R. A., Meiners, K. M., Swadling, K. M., Atwater, D. P., Brett, G. M., Corkill, M., Dalman, L. A., Fiddes, S., Granata, A., Guglielmo, L., Heil, P., Leonard, G. H., Mahoney, A. R., McMinn, A., van der Merwe, P., Weldrick, C. K., and Wienecke, B.: Antarctic Landfast Sea Ice: A Review of Its Physics, Biogeochemistry and Ecology, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022RG000770, 2023. a
Frémand, A. C., Fretwell, P., Bodart, J. A., Pritchard, H. D., Aitken, A., Bamber, J. L., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Christianson, K., Conway, H., Corr, H. F. J., Cui, X., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Drews, R., Eagles, G., Eisen, O., Eisermann, H., Ferraccioli, F., Field, E., Forsberg, R., Franke, S., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Goel, V., Gogineni, S. P., Greenbaum, J., Hills, B., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Hoffman, A. O., Holmlund, P., Holschuh, N., Holt, J. W., Horlings, A. N., Humbert, A., Jacobel, R. W., Jansen, D., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Kusk Gillespie, M., Langley, K., Lee, J., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B., MacGregor, J., MacKie, E., Matsuoka, K., Morlighem, M., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Paden, J., Pattyn, F., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Ruppel, A., Schroeder, D. M., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tabacco, I., Tinto, K., Urbini, S., Vaughan, D., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D. S., Young, D. A., and Zirizzotti, A.: Antarctic Bedmap data: Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) sharing of 60 years of ice bed, surface, and thickness data, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2695–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2695-2023, 2023. a
Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013. a, b
Friedrichs, D. M., McInerney, J. B., Oldroyd, H. J., Lee, W. S., Yun, S., Yoon, S. T., Stevens, C. L., Zappa, C. J., Dow, C. F., Mueller, D., Steiner, O. S., and Forrest, A. L.: Observations of submesoscale eddy-driven heat transport at an ice shelf calving front, Communications Earth and Environment, 3, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00460-3, 2022. a, b
Galton-Fenzi, B., Maraldi, C., Coleman, R., and Hunter, J.: The cavity under the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, J. Glaciol., 54, 881–887, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214308787779898, 2008. a
Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Hunter, J. R., Coleman, R., Marsland, S. J., and Warner, R. C.: Modeling the basal melting and marine ice accretion of the Amery Ice Shelf, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008214, 2012. a
Gao, L., Yuan, X., Cai, W., Guo, G., Yu, W., Shi, J., Qiao, F., Wei, Z., and Williams, G. D.: Persistent warm-eddy transport to Antarctic ice shelves driven by enhanced summer westerlies, Nat. Commun., 15, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45010-x, 2024. a, b
Greene, C. A., Blankenship, D. D., Gwyther, D. E., Silvano, A., and van Wijk, E.: Wind causes Totten Ice Shelf melt and acceleration, Science Advances, 3, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1701681, 2017. a
Gwyther, D. E., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Hunter, J. R., and Roberts, J. L.: Simulated melt rates for the Totten and Dalton ice shelves, Ocean Sci., 10, 267–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-267-2014, 2014. a, b
Gwyther, D. E., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Dinniman, M. S., Roberts, J. L., and Hunter, J. R.: The effect of basal friction on melting and freezing in ice shelf-ocean models, Ocean Model., 95, 38–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.09.004, 2015. a
Gwyther, D. E., O'Kane, T. J., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Monselesan, D. P., and Greenbaum, J. S.: Intrinsic processes drive variability in basal melting of the Totten Glacier Ice Shelf, Nat. Commun., 9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05618-2, 2018. a, b
Gwyther, D. E., Dow, C. F., Jendersie, S., Gourmelen, N., and Galton-Fenzi, B. K.: Subglacial Freshwater Drainage Increases Simulated Basal Melt of the Totten Ice Shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103765, 2023. a
Haigh, M. and Holland, P. R.: Decadal Variability of Ice-Shelf Melting in the Amundsen Sea Driven by Sea-Ice Freshwater Fluxes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108406, 2024. a
Hallberg, R.: Using a resolution function to regulate parameterizations of oceanic mesoscale eddy effects, Ocean Model., 72, 92–103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.08.007, 2013. a
Hattermann, T., Nst, O. A., Lilly, J. M., and Smedsrud, L. H.: Two years of oceanic observations below the Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051012, 2012. a
Hattermann, T., Smedsrud, L. H., Nøst, O. A., Lilly, J. M., and Galton-Fenzi, B. K.: Eddy-resolving simulations of the Fimbul Ice Shelf cavity circulation: Basal melting and exchange with open ocean, Ocean Model., 82, 28–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.07.004, 2014. a
Hausmann, U., Sallée, J. B., Jourdain, N. C., Mathiot, P., Rousset, C., Madec, G., Deshayes, J., and Hattermann, T.: The Role of Tides in Ocean-Ice Shelf Interactions in the Southwestern Weddell Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 125, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015847, 2020. a
Heuzé, C.: Antarctic Bottom Water and North Atlantic Deep Water in CMIP6 models, Ocean Sci., 17, 59–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-59-2021, 2021. a, b
Heywood, K. J., Schmidtko, S., Heuzé, C., Kaiser, J., Jickells, T. D., Queste, B. Y., Stevens, D. P., Wadley, M., Thompson, A. F., Fielding, S., Guihen, D., Creed, E., Ridley, J. K., and Smith, W.: Ocean processes at the Antarctic continental slope, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 372, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0047, 2014. a
Holland, D. M. and Jenkins, A.: Modeling Thermodynamic Ice–Ocean Interactions at the Base of an Ice Shelf, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 1787–1800, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029<1787:MTIOIA>2.0.CO;2, 1999. a
Holland, P. R., Bracegirdle, T. J., Dutrieux, P., Jenkins, A., and Steig, E. J.: West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing, Nat. Geosci., 12, 718–724, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0420-9, 2019. a
Jacob, B., Queste, B. Y., and du Plessis, M. D.: Turbulent heat flux dynamics along the Dotson and Getz ice-shelf fronts (Amundsen Sea, Antarctica), Ocean Sci., 21, 359–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-359-2025, 2025. a
Jacobs, S., Giulivi, C., Dutrieux, P., Rignot, E., Nitsche, F., and Mouginot, J.: Getz Ice Shelf melting response to changes in ocean forcing, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 4152–4168, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20298, 2013. a, b
Jacobs, S. S., Jenkins, A., Giulivi, C. F., and Dutrieux, P.: Stronger ocean circulation and increased melting under Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, Nat. Geosci., 4, 519–523, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1188, 2011. a
Jendersie, S., Williams, M. J., Langhorne, P. J., and Robertson, R.: The Density-Driven Winter Intensification of the Ross Sea Circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 7702–7724, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC013965, 2018. a
Jenkins, A., Dutrieux, P., Jacobs, S. S., McPhail, S. D., Perrett, J. R., Webb, A. T., and White, D.: Observations beneath Pine Island Glacier in West-Antarctica and implications for its retreat, Nat. Geosci., 3, 468–472, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo890, 2010. a
Jones, R. W., Renfrew, I. A., Orr, A., Webber, B. G., Holland, D. M., and Lazzara, M. A.: Evaluation of four global reanalysis products using in situ observations in the amundsen sea embayment, antarctica, J. Geophys. Res., 121, 6240–6257, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024680, 2016. a
Joughin, I. and Padman, L.: Melting and freezing beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL016941, 2003. a
Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., Howat, I. M., Scambos, T., and Moon, T.: Greenland flow variability from ice-sheet-wide velocity mapping, J. Glaciol., 56, 415–430, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214310792447734, 2010. a
Jourdain, N. C., Molines, J. M., Sommer, J. L., Mathiot, P., Chanut, J., de Lavergne, C., and Madec, G.: Simulating or prescribing the influence of tides on the Amundsen Sea ice shelves, Ocean Model., 133, 44–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.11.001, 2019. a
Jourdain, N. C., Mathiot, P., Burgard, C., Caillet, J., and Kittel, C.: Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100629, 2022. a
Khazendar, A., Schodlok, M. P., Fenty, I., Ligtenberg, S. R., Rignot, E., and Broeke, M. R. V. D.: Observed thinning of Totten Glacier is linked to coastal polynya variability, Nat. Commun., 4, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms3857, 2013. a, b
Kim, T., Hong, J. S., Jin, E. K., Moon, J. H., Song, S. K., and Lee, W. S.: Spatiotemporal variability in ocean-driven basal melting of cold-water cavity ice shelf in Terra Nova Bay, East Antarctica: roles of tide and cavity geometry, Frontiers in Marine Science, 10, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1249562, 2023. a
Kimura, S., Jenkins, A., Regan, H., Holland, P. R., Assmann, K. M., Whitt, D. B., Wessem, M. V., van de Berg, W. J., Reijmer, C. H., and Dutrieux, P.: Oceanographic Controls on the Variability of Ice-Shelf Basal Melting and Circulation of Glacial Meltwater in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 10131–10155, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012926, 2017. a
Kusahara, K., Hasumi, H., and Tamura, T.: Modeling sea ice production and dense shelf water formation in coastal polynyas around East Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006133, 2010. a
Kusahara, K., Tatebe, H., Hajima, T., Saito, F., and Kawamiya, M.: Antarctic Sea Ice Holds the Fate of Antarctic Ice-Shelf Basal Melting in a Warming Climate, J. Climate, 36, 713–743, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0079.1, 2023. a
Kusahara, K., Hirano, D., Fujii, M., Fraser, A. D., Tamura, T., Mizobata, K., Williams, G. D., and Aoki, S.: Modeling seasonal-to-decadal ocean–cryosphere interactions along the Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 18, 43–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-43-2024, 2024. a, b
Large, W. G., Mcwilliams, J. C., and Doney, S. C.: OCEANIC VERTICAL MIXING: A REVIEW AND A MODEL WITH A NONLOCAL BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION, Tech. rep., https://doi.org/10.1029/94RG01872, 1994. a
Lauber, J., Hattermann, T., de Steur, L., Darelius, E., Auger, M., Nøst, O. A., and Moholdt, G.: Warming beneath an East Antarctic ice shelf due to increased subpolar westerlies and reduced sea ice, Nat. Geosci., 16, 877–885, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01273-5, 2023. a
Li, Z., Wang, C., and Zhou, M.: A Model Analysis of Circumpolar Deep Water Intrusions on the Continental Shelf Break in Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 130, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022210, 2025. a
Lindbäck, K., Moholdt, G., Nicholls, K. W., Hattermann, T., Pratap, B., Thamban, M., and Matsuoka, K.: Spatial and temporal variations in basal melting at Nivlisen ice shelf, East Antarctica, derived from phase-sensitive radars, The Cryosphere, 13, 2579–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2579-2019, 2019. a, b
Lindbäck, K., Darelius, E., Moholdt, G., Vankova, I., Hattermann, T., Lauber, J., and de Steur, L.: Basal melting and oceanic observations beneath Fimbulisen, East Antarctica, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 130, e2023JC020506, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170365303.33631810/v1, 2023. a, b
Liu, Y., Nikurashin, M., and Peña-Molino, B.: Seafloor roughness reduces melting of East Antarctic ice shelves, Communications Earth and Environment, 5, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01480-x, 2024. a
Makinson, K. and Nicholls, K. W.: Modeling tidal currents beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf and on the adjacent continental shelf: Their effect on mixing and transport, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 104, 13449–13465, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999jc900008, 1999. a
Marsh, O. J., Fricker, H. A., Siegfried, M. R., Christianson, K., Nicholls, K. W., Corr, H. F., and Catania, G.: High basal melting forming a channel at the grounding line of Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 250–255, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066612, 2016. a
Mazloff, M. R., Heimbach, P., and Wunsch, C.: An eddy-permitting Southern Ocean state estimate, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 40, 880–899, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JPO4236.1, 2010. a
Merino, N., Sommer, J. L., Durand, G., Jourdain, N. C., Madec, G., Mathiot, P., and Tournadre, J.: Antarctic icebergs melt over the Southern Ocean: Climatology and impact on sea ice, Ocean Modelling, 104, 99–110, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.05.001, 2016. a
Miles, B. W., Stokes, C. R., and Jamieson, S. S.: Pan-ice-sheet glacier terminus change in East Antarctica reveals sensitivity of Wilkes Land to sea-ice changes, Science Advances, 2, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501350, 2016. a
Milillo, P., Rignot, E., Rizzoli, P., Scheuchl, B., Mouginot, J., Bueso-Bello, J., and Prats-Iraola, P.: Heterogeneous retreat and ice melt of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, Science Advances, 5, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau3433, 2019. a
Mosbeux, C., Padman, L., Klein, E., Bromirski, P. D., and Fricker, H. A.: Seasonal variability in Antarctic ice shelf velocities forced by sea surface height variations, The Cryosphere, 17, 2585–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2585-2023, 2023. a, b
Nakayama, Y., Timmermann, R., Rodehacke, C. B., Schröder, M., and Hellmer, H. H.: Modeling the spreading of glacial meltwater from the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7942–7949, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061600, 2014. a
Naughten, K. A., Meissner, K. J., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., England, M. H., Timmermann, R., Hellmer, H. H., Hattermann, T., and Debernard, J. B.: Intercomparison of Antarctic ice-shelf, ocean, and sea-ice interactions simulated by MetROMS-iceshelf and FESOM 1.4, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1257–1292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1257-2018, 2018. a
Nicholls, K. W., Padman, L., Schröder, M., Woodgate, R. A., Jenkins, A., and Øterhus, S.: Water mass modification over the continental shelf north of Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jc001713, 2003. a
Nicholls, K. W., Corr, H. F., Stewart, C. L., Lok, L. B., Brennan, P. V., and Vaughan, D. G.: Instruments and methods: A ground-based radar for measuring vertical strain rates and time-varying basal melt rates in ice sheets and shelves, J. Glaciol., 61, 1079–1087, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG15J073, 2015. a
Ohshima, K. I., Nihashi, S., and Iwamoto, K.: Global view of sea-ice production in polynyas and its linkage to dense/bottom water formation, Geosci. Lett., 3, 13 , https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-016-0045-4, 2016. a
Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., and Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327–331, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa0940, 2015. a
Park, T., Nakayama, Y., and Nam, S. H.: Amundsen Sea circulation controls bottom upwelling and Antarctic Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelf melting, Nat. Commun., 15, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47084-z, 2024. a
Pritchard, H. D., Ligtenberg, S. R., Fricker, H. A., Vaughan, D. G., Broeke, M. R. V. D., and Padman, L.: Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves, Nature, 484, 502–505, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10968, 2012. a
Purich, A. and Doddridge, E. W.: Record low Antarctic sea ice coverage indicates a new sea ice state, Communications Earth and Environment, 4, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00961-9, 2023. a
Purich, A. and England, M. H.: Historical and Future Projected Warming of Antarctic Shelf Bottom Water in CMIP6 Models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092752, 2021. a
Richter, O., Gwyther, D. E., King, M. A., and Galton-Fenzi, B. K.: The impact of tides on Antarctic ice shelf melting, The Cryosphere, 16, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1409-2022, 2022b. a, b
Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice-Shelf Melting Around Antarctica, Science, 341, 266–270, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235798, 2013. a, b, c, d
Rosevear, M. G., Gayen, B., Vreugdenhil, C. A., and Galton-Fenzi, B. K.: How Does the Ocean Melt Antarctic Ice Shelves?, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 14, 37, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-040323-074354, 2024. a
Sallée, J.-B., Vignes, L., Minière, A., Steiger, N., Pauthenet, E., Lourenco, A., Speer, K., Lazarevich, P., and Nicholls, K. W.: Subsurface floats in the Filchner Trough provide the first direct under-ice tracks of the circulation on shelf, Ocean Sci., 20, 1267–1280, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1267-2024, 2024. a
Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F., and Aoki, S.: Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters, Science, 346, 1227–1231, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1256117, 2014. a, b, c, d
Schnaase, F. and Timmermann, R.: Representation of shallow grounding zones in an ice shelf-ocean model with terrain-following coordinates, Ocean Model., 144, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2019.101487, 2019. a
Seroussi, H., Verjans, V., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., Van Katwyk, P., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty, The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023. a
Seroussi, H., Pelle, T., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albrecht, T., Alvarez-Solas, J., Asay-Davis, X., Barre, J. B., Berends, C. J., Bernales, J., Blasco, J., Caillet, J., Chandler, D. M., Coulon, V., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Garbe, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gladstone, R., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N., Greve, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Han, H. K., Hillebrand, T. R., Hoffman, M. J., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Klose, A. K., Langebroek, P. M., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Mathiot, P., Montoya, M., Morlighem, M., Nowicki, S., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Robinson, A., Saraste, L., Simon, E. G., Sun, S., Twarog, J. P., Trusel, L. D., Urruty, B., Breedam, J. V., van de Wal, R. S., Wang, Y., Zhao, C., and Zwinger, T.: Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble, Earths Future, 12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004561, 2024. a, b, c
Shchepetkin, A. F. and McWilliams, J. C.: The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): A split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model, Ocean Model., 9, 347–404, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2004.08.002, 2005. a
Silvano, A., Rintoul, S. R., and Herraiz-Borreguero, L.: Ocean-ice shelf interaction in East Antarctica, Oceanography, 29, 130–143, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.105, 2016. a
Silvano, A., Rintoul, S. R., Peña-Molino, B., and Williams, G. D.: Distribution of water masses and meltwater on the continental shelf near the Totten and Moscow University ice shelves, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 2050–2068, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012115, 2017. a
Silvano, A., Rintoul, S. R., Peña-Molino, B., Hobbs, W. R., van Wijk, E., Aoki, S., Tamura, T., and Williams, G. D.: Freshening by glacial meltwater enhances melting of ice shelves and reduces formation of Antarctic Bottom Water, Science Advances, 4, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aap9467, 2018. a
Stammerjohn, S. E., Maksym, T., Massom, R. A., Lowry, K., Arrigo, K. R., Yuan, X., Raphael, M., Randall-Goodwin, E., Sherrell, R. M., and Yager, P. L.: Seasonal sea ice changes in the amundsen sea, Antarctica, over the period of 1979–2014, Elementa, 3, https://doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000055, 2015. a
Stern, A. A., Dinniman, M. S., Zagorodnov, V., Tyler, S. W., and Holland, D. M.: Intrusion of warm surface water beneath the McMurdo ice shelf, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 7036–7048, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC008842, 2013. a
Stewart, A. L., Klocker, A., and Menemenlis, D.: Circum-Antarctic Shoreward Heat Transport Derived From an Eddy- and Tide-Resolving Simulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 834–845, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075677, 2018. a
Stewart, C. L., Christoffersen, P., Nicholls, K. W., Williams, M. J. M., and Dowdeswell, J. A.: Basal melting of Ross Ice Shelf from solar heat absorption in an ice-front polynya, Nat. Geosci., 12, 435–440, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0356-0, 2019. a, b, c
Sun, S., Hattermann, T., Pattyn, F., Nicholls, K. W., Drews, R., and Berger, S.: Topographic Shelf Waves Control Seasonal Melting Near Antarctic Ice Shelf Grounding Lines, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 9824–9832, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083881, 2019. a, b
Tamura, T., Ohshima, K. I., and Nihashi, S.: Mapping of sea ice production for Antarctic coastal polynyas, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032903, 2008. a, b, c
Thompson, A. F., Stewart, A. L., Spence, P., and Heywood, K. J.: The Antarctic Slope Current in a Changing Climate, Reviews of Geophysics, 56, 741–770, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000624, 2018. a, b
Timmermann, R. and Goeller, S.: Response to Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf cavity warming in a coupled ocean–ice sheet model – Part 1: The ocean perspective, Ocean Sci., 13, 765–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-765-2017, 2017. a
Vaňková, I. and Nicholls, K. W.: Ocean Variability Beneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf Inferred From Basal Melt Rate Time Series, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018879, 2022. a, b, c
Vaňková, I., Cook, S., Winberry, J. P., Nicholls, K. W., and Galton-Fenzi, B. K.: Deriving Melt Rates at a Complex Ice Shelf Base Using In Situ Radar: Application to Totten Ice Shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092692, 2021. a, b, c
Walker, D. P., Brandon, M. A., Jenkins, A., Allen, J. T., Dowdeswell, J. A., and Evans, J.: Oceanic heat transport onto the Amundsen Sea shelf through a submarine glacial trough, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028154, 2007. a, b
Walker, D. P., Jenkins, A., Assmann, K. M., Shoosmith, D. R., and Brandon, M. A.: Oceanographic observations at the shelf break of the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 2906–2918, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20212, 2013. a, b
Webber, B. G., Heywood, K. J., Stevens, D. P., Dutrieux, P., Abrahamsen, E. P., Jenkins, A., Jacobs, S. S., Ha, H. K., Lee, S. H., and Kim, T. W.: Mechanisms driving variability in the ocean forcing of Pine Island Glacier, Nat. Commun., 8, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14507, 2017. a
Wei, W., Blankenship, D. D., Greenbaum, J. S., Gourmelen, N., Dow, C. F., Richter, T. G., Greene, C. A., Young, D. A., Lee, S., Kim, T.-W., Lee, W. S., and Assmann, K. M.: Getz Ice Shelf melt enhanced by freshwater discharge from beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere, 14, 1399–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1399-2020, 2020. a
Yang, H., Kim, T. W., Kim, Y., Yoo, J., Park, J., and Cho, Y. K.: Variability of Inflowing Current Into the Dotson Ice Shelf and Its Cause in the Amundsen Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105404, 2024. a
Yang, H. W., Kim, T. W., Dutrieux, P., Wåhlin, A. K., Jenkins, A., Ha, H. K., Kim, C. S., Cho, K. H., Park, T., Lee, S. H., and Cho, Y. K.: Seasonal variability of ocean circulation near the Dotson Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Nat. Commun., 13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28751-5, 2022. a, b
Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet melting dominates the sea-level projection uncertainties. Much uncertainty arises from our limited understanding of how ice shelves melt from below. Using a detailed ocean–ice-shelf model, we found that East Antarctic ice shelves experience seasonal melting driven by ocean heat transport variability. In contrast, West Antarctic ice shelves show consistent melting due to a steady supply of warm, deep water, indicating a potentially distinct response due to a warming climate.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet melting dominates the sea-level projection uncertainties. Much...
