Articles | Volume 19, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4525-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4525-2025
Brief communication
 | 
14 Oct 2025
Brief communication |  | 14 Oct 2025

Brief communication: Reanalyses underperform in cold regions, raising concerns for climate services and research

Bin Cao and Stephan Gruber

Data sets

Reduced performance of reanalyses in cold regions Bin Cao and Stephan Gruber https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14216654

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present Hans Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

MERRA-2 tavgM_2d_flx_Nx: 2d,Monthly mean,Time-Averaged,Single-Level,Assimilation,Surface Flux Diagnostics V5.12.4 Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) https://doi.org/10.5067/0JRLVL8YV2Y4

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Short summary
The climate-driven changes in cold regions have an outsized importance for local resilient communities and for global climate through teleconnections. We show that reanalyses are less accurate in cold regions compared to other more populated regions, coincident with the low density of observations. Our findings likely point to similar gaps in our knowledge and capabilities of climate research and services in cold regions.
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