Articles | Volume 19, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3879-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3879-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 16 Sep 2025
| 16 Sep 2025
Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance
Larissa Nora van der Laan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover, Germany
Anouk Vlug
Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Adam A. Scaife
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Fabien Maussion
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Kristian Förster
Institute of Ecology and Landscape, University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan-Triesdorf, Freising, Germany
Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover, Germany
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Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
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We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, Lukas Langhamer, and Gina E. Moseley
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Precipitation and moisture sources over an arid region in northeast Greenland are investigated from 1979 to 2017 by a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic driven by reanalysis data. Dominant winter moisture sources are the North Atlantic above 45° N. In summer local and north Eurasian continental sources dominate. In positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, evaporation and moisture transport from the Norwegian Sea are stronger, resulting in more precipitation.
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Short summary
Usually, glacier models are supplied with climate information from long (e.g., 100-year) simulations by global climate models. In this paper, we test the feasibility of supplying glacier models with shorter simulations to get more accurate information on 5–10-year timescales. Reliable information on these timescales is very important, especially for water management experts, to know how much meltwater to expect, affecting rivers, agriculture and drinking water.
Usually, glacier models are supplied with climate information from long (e.g., 100-year)...
