Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
23 Jan 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 23 Jan 2025
| 23 Jan 2025
Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
William H. Lipscomb
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Gunter R. Leguy
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Jorjo Bernales
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
Constantijn J. Berends
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Willem Jan van de Berg
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A new paradigm for understanding Earth’s marine ice sheets O. Sergienko et al.
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets C. Stokes et al.
- Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades A. Nauels et al.
- Bedrock uplift reduces Antarctic sea-level contribution over next centuries C. van Calcar et al.
- Variability in ice shelf basal melting in the Amundsen Sea Embayment from 2019 to 2023 X. Meng et al.
- Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss D. Chandler et al.
- Geochemical characterisation of the Ellsworth-Whitmore Mountains crustal block: a critical piece in the puzzle to unravel ice retreat in West Antarctica E. Archibald et al.
- Competing processes determine the long-term impact of basal friction parameterizations for Antarctic mass loss T. van den Akker et al.
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al.
- Reinforced ridges in Thwaites Glacier yield insights into resolution requirements for coupled ice sheet and solid Earth models L. Houriez et al.
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al.
- Short-term Antarctic ice sheet mass anomalies revealed by daily GRACE/FO satellite gravimetry P. Ma et al.
- Damage intensity increases ice mass loss from Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica Y. Li et al.
- An integrated view on the uncertainties of sea-level rise, hazards and impacts, and adaptation T. Hermans et al.
- Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming R. Winkelmann et al.
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A new paradigm for understanding Earth’s marine ice sheets O. Sergienko et al.
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets C. Stokes et al.
- Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades A. Nauels et al.
- Bedrock uplift reduces Antarctic sea-level contribution over next centuries C. van Calcar et al.
- Variability in ice shelf basal melting in the Amundsen Sea Embayment from 2019 to 2023 X. Meng et al.
- Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss D. Chandler et al.
- Geochemical characterisation of the Ellsworth-Whitmore Mountains crustal block: a critical piece in the puzzle to unravel ice retreat in West Antarctica E. Archibald et al.
- Competing processes determine the long-term impact of basal friction parameterizations for Antarctic mass loss T. van den Akker et al.
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al.
- Reinforced ridges in Thwaites Glacier yield insights into resolution requirements for coupled ice sheet and solid Earth models L. Houriez et al.
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al.
- Short-term Antarctic ice sheet mass anomalies revealed by daily GRACE/FO satellite gravimetry P. Ma et al.
- Damage intensity increases ice mass loss from Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica Y. Li et al.
- An integrated view on the uncertainties of sea-level rise, hazards and impacts, and adaptation T. Hermans et al.
- Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming R. Winkelmann et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 02 May 2026
Editorial statement
The manuscript investigates the future stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) exploring how ice-sheet models may be initialised in a way that incorporates present-day satellite observations of ice mass loss. The study shows that with present-day ocean water temperatures large parts of WAIS will deglaciate, with major implications for global sea levels, particularly in Europe. Model simulations also show that current ocean-driven melting trends will destabilize the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers over the next several centuries even in the absence of further change, leading to rapid ice loss.
The manuscript investigates the future stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)...
Short summary
In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.
In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice...
