Articles | Volume 19, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-283-2025
Research article
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23 Jan 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 23 Jan 2025

Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse

Tim van den Akker, William H. Lipscomb, Gunter R. Leguy, Jorjo Bernales, Constantijn J. Berends, Willem Jan van de Berg, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal

Data sets

Datasets used in van den Akker et al (2024) 'Present day mass loss rates are a precursor precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse T. van den Akker https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13897556

Model code and software

CISM version used to conduct the research in this study T. van den Akker https://github.com/ESCOMP/CISM/releases/tag/dhdt_version

ESCOMP/CISM Katetc https://github.com/ESCOMP/CISM

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Co-editor-in-chief
The manuscript investigates the future stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) exploring how ice-sheet models may be initialised in a way that incorporates present-day satellite observations of ice mass loss. The study shows that with present-day ocean water temperatures large parts of WAIS will deglaciate, with major implications for global sea levels, particularly in Europe. Model simulations also show that current ocean-driven melting trends will destabilize the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers over the next several centuries even in the absence of further change, leading to rapid ice loss.
Short summary
In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally.