Articles | Volume 18, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 21 Nov 2024
| 21 Nov 2024
Unravelling the sources of uncertainty in glacier runoff projections in the Patagonian Andes (40–56° S)
Rodrigo Aguayo
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centro EULA, Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Fabien Maussion
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Lilian Schuster
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Marius Schaefer
Instituto de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Alexis Caro
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Grenoble-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
Patrick Schmitt
Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
Jonathan Mackay
British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK
Lizz Ultee
Department of Earth & Climate Sciences, Middlebury College, Middlebury, USA
Jorge Leon-Muñoz
Departamento de Química Ambiental, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Centro Interdisciplinario para la Investigación Acuícola (INCAR), Concepción, Chile
Centro de Energía, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Mauricio Aguayo
Centro EULA, Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Tracing ice loss from the Late Holocene to the future in eastern Nuussuaq, central western Greenland J. Bonsoms et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1973-2025
- Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century M. Kneib et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z
- Assessing the impact of ice thickness uncertainty on future glacier evolution in the Himalayas using a higher-order glacier flow model X. Qi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135450
- Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes J. Mackay et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025
- Reconstruction and projection of the evolution of Schiaparelli Glacier, Southern Patagonia (1749–2100) using OGGM constrained by dendroglaciological records Y. Hu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.114056
- Integrating GPR and ice-thickness models for improved bedrock detection: the case study of Rutor temperate glacier A. Vergnano et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6965-2025
- Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C L. Schuster et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02318-w
- Brief communication: Sensitivity analysis of peak water to ice thickness and temperature: A case study in the Western Kunlun Mountains of the Tibetan Plateau L. Gimenes et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-171-2026
- Future glacio-hydrological changes in the Andes: a focus on near-future projections up to 2050 A. Caro et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-88069-2
- Recent observations and glacier modeling point towards near-complete glacier loss in western Austria (Ötztal and Stubai mountain range) if 1.5 °C is not met L. Hartl et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1431-2025
- CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections L. Ultee et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026
- Dielectric properties of saturated frozen silty clay: Experimental characterization and temperature-void coupled mixing model Z. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104991
- QFuego-Patagonia: A comprehensive glacier-related dataset for Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego, South America D. Farías-Barahona et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2025.10110
- Unveiling the viral frontier in a warming world: temperature as a key ecological driver of viral diversity in subantarctic Chilean Patagonia fjords M. Buscaglia et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40793-026-00869-9
- AGILE v0.1: The Open Global Glacier Data Assimilation Framework P. Schmitt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1301-2026
- Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century L. Van Tricht et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9
- Quantifying the drivers of river thermal regimes in the Hanjiang River Basin under climate change and reservoir construction L. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135164
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Tracing ice loss from the Late Holocene to the future in eastern Nuussuaq, central western Greenland J. Bonsoms et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1973-2025
- Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century M. Kneib et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z
- Assessing the impact of ice thickness uncertainty on future glacier evolution in the Himalayas using a higher-order glacier flow model X. Qi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135450
- Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes J. Mackay et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025
- Reconstruction and projection of the evolution of Schiaparelli Glacier, Southern Patagonia (1749–2100) using OGGM constrained by dendroglaciological records Y. Hu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.114056
- Integrating GPR and ice-thickness models for improved bedrock detection: the case study of Rutor temperate glacier A. Vergnano et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6965-2025
- Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C L. Schuster et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02318-w
- Brief communication: Sensitivity analysis of peak water to ice thickness and temperature: A case study in the Western Kunlun Mountains of the Tibetan Plateau L. Gimenes et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-171-2026
- Future glacio-hydrological changes in the Andes: a focus on near-future projections up to 2050 A. Caro et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-88069-2
- Recent observations and glacier modeling point towards near-complete glacier loss in western Austria (Ötztal and Stubai mountain range) if 1.5 °C is not met L. Hartl et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1431-2025
- CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections L. Ultee et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026
- Dielectric properties of saturated frozen silty clay: Experimental characterization and temperature-void coupled mixing model Z. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2026.104991
- QFuego-Patagonia: A comprehensive glacier-related dataset for Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego, South America D. Farías-Barahona et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2025.10110
- Unveiling the viral frontier in a warming world: temperature as a key ecological driver of viral diversity in subantarctic Chilean Patagonia fjords M. Buscaglia et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40793-026-00869-9
- AGILE v0.1: The Open Global Glacier Data Assimilation Framework P. Schmitt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1301-2026
- Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century L. Van Tricht et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9
- Quantifying the drivers of river thermal regimes in the Hanjiang River Basin under climate change and reservoir construction L. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135164
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 06 Aug 2026
Short summary
Predicting how much water will come from glaciers in the future is a complex task, and there are many factors that make it uncertain. Using a glacier model, we explored 1920 scenarios for each glacier in the Patagonian Andes. We found that the choice of the historical climate data was the most important factor, while other factors such as different data sources, climate models and emission scenarios played a smaller role.
Predicting how much water will come from glaciers in the future is a complex task, and there are...
