The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 17, issue 10
Articles | Volume 17, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4241-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4241-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 10
Research article
 | 
06 Oct 2023
Research article |  | 06 Oct 2023

A framework for time-dependent ice sheet uncertainty quantification, applied to three West Antarctic ice streams

Beatriz Recinos, Daniel Goldberg, James R. Maddison, and Joe Todd

Data sets

Output of several experiments with Fenics_ice over Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers Beatriz Recinos, Daniel Goldberg, and James R. Maddison https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7612243

Model code and software

Experiments with Fenics_ice applied to three West Antarctic ice streams Beatriz Recinos, Daniel Goldberg, James R. Maddison, and Joe Todd https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7615259

EdiGlacUQ/tlm_adjoint: tlm_adjoint (v1.0) James R. Maddison and Beatriz Recinos https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7625841

EdiGlacUQ/fenics_ice: fenics_ice (v1.0.2) James R. Maddison, Beatriz Recinos, dngoldberg, Conrad Koziol, and Joe Todd https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7615309

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Short summary
Ice sheet models generate forecasts of ice sheet mass loss, a significant contributor to sea level rise; thus, capturing the complete range of possible projections of mass loss is of critical societal importance. Here we add to data assimilation techniques commonly used in ice sheet modelling (a Bayesian inference approach) and fully characterize calibration uncertainty. We successfully propagate this type of error onto sea level rise projections of three ice streams in West Antarctica.
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