Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
The Cryosphere, 16, 1597–1607, 2022
The Cryosphere, 16, 1597–1607, 2022
Research article
04 May 2022
Research article | 04 May 2022

Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model

Daniel Clarkson et al.

Data sets

Multilayer Greenland Ice Surface Temperature, Surface Albedo, and Water Vapor from MODIS, Version 1 D. K. Hall and N. DiGirolamo

PROMICE Automatic Weather Station data ( Robert S. Fausto, Dirk van As, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Baptiste Vandecrux, Michele Citterio, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, William Colgan, Nanna B. Karlsson, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Niels J. Korsgaard, Signe H. Larsen, Søren Nielsen, Allan Ø. Pedersen, Christopher L. Shields, Anne M. Solgaard, and Jason E. Box

Short summary
The Greenland ice sheet has seen large amounts of melt in recent years, and accurately modelling temperatures is vital to understand how much of the ice sheet is melting. We estimate the probability of melt from ice surface temperature data to identify which areas of the ice sheet have experienced melt and estimate temperature quantiles. Our results suggest that for large areas of the ice sheet, melt has become more likely over the past 2 decades and high temperatures are also becoming warmer.