The Cryosphere
The Cryosphere
TC
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1597-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Research article
 | 
04 May 2022
Research article |  | 04 May 2022

Melt probabilities and surface temperature trends on the Greenland ice sheet using a Gaussian mixture model

Daniel Clarkson, Emma Eastoe, and Amber Leeson

Data sets

Multilayer Greenland Ice Surface Temperature, Surface Albedo, and Water Vapor from MODIS, Version 1 D. K. Hall and N. DiGirolamo https://doi.org/10.5067/7THUWT9NMPDK

PROMICE Automatic Weather Station data (https://doi.org/10.22008/promice/data/aws) Robert S. Fausto, Dirk van As, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Baptiste Vandecrux, Michele Citterio, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Signe B. Andersen, William Colgan, Nanna B. Karlsson, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Niels J. Korsgaard, Signe H. Larsen, Søren Nielsen, Allan Ø. Pedersen, Christopher L. Shields, Anne M. Solgaard, and Jason E. Box https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3819-2021

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Short summary
The Greenland ice sheet has seen large amounts of melt in recent years, and accurately modelling temperatures is vital to understand how much of the ice sheet is melting. We estimate the probability of melt from ice surface temperature data to identify which areas of the ice sheet have experienced melt and estimate temperature quantiles. Our results suggest that for large areas of the ice sheet, melt has become more likely over the past 2 decades and high temperatures are also becoming warmer.
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