Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Feb 2021
Research article |
| 24 Feb 2021
| 24 Feb 2021
An inter-comparison of the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in CMIP6 models
Ann Keen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Ed Blockley
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
David A. Bailey
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
Jens Boldingh Debernard
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Mitchell Bushuk
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Princeton, NJ, USA
Steve Delhaye
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM),
Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain,
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
David Docquier
Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI),
Norrköping, Sweden
Daniel Feltham
Centre for Polar Observations and Modelling (CPOM), University of
Reading, Reading, UK
François Massonnet
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM),
Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain,
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Siobhan O'Farrell
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia
Leandro Ponsoni
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM),
Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain,
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
José M. Rodriguez
Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET), Madrid, Spain
David Schroeder
Centre for Polar Observations and Modelling (CPOM), University of
Reading, Reading, UK
Neil Swart
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Canadian Centre for
Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada
Takahiro Toyoda
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba,
Japan
Hiroyuki Tsujino
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba,
Japan
Martin Vancoppenolle
Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat and Institut Pierre-Simon
Laplace (LOCEAN-IPSL), Paris, France
Klaus Wyser
Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI),
Norrköping, Sweden
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Alex Edward West and Edward William Blockley
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Annelies Sticker, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Patricia DeRepentigny, Alexandra Jahn, David Docquier, Christopher Wyburn-Powell, Daphne Quint, Erica Shivers, and Makayla Ortiz
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Tian Tian, Richard Davy, Leandro Ponsoni, and Shuting Yang
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Catherine Guiavarc'h, Dave Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene T. Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
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Jenny Hieronymus, Magnus Hieronymus, Matthias Gröger, Jörg Schwinger, Raffaele Bernadello, Etienne Tourigny, Valentina Sicardi, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, and Klaus Wyser
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David Docquier, Giorgia Di Capua, Reik V. Donner, Carlos A. L. Pires, Amélie Simon, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 115–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-115-2024, 2024
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Marika M. Holland, Cecile Hannay, John Fasullo, Alexandra Jahn, Jennifer E. Kay, Michael Mills, Isla R. Simpson, William Wieder, Peter Lawrence, Erik Kluzek, and David Bailey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1585–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, 2024
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Alexander T. Archibald, Bablu Sinha, Maria Russo, Emily Matthews, Freya Squires, N. Luke Abraham, Stephane Bauguitte, Thomas Bannan, Thomas Bell, David Berry, Lucy Carpenter, Hugh Coe, Andrew Coward, Peter Edwards, Daniel Feltham, Dwayne Heard, Jim Hopkins, James Keeble, Elizabeth C. Kent, Brian King, Isobel R. Lawrence, James Lee, Claire R. Macintosh, Alex Megann, Ben I. Moat, Katie Read, Chris Reed, Malcolm Roberts, Reinhard Schiemann, David Schroeder, Tim Smyth, Loren Temple, Navaneeth Thamban, Lisa Whalley, Simon Williams, Huihui Wu, and Ming-Xi Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-405, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-405, 2024
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Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
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This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Johannes Röhrs, Yvonne Gusdal, Edel S. U. Rikardsen, Marina Durán Moro, Jostein Brændshøi, Nils Melsom Kristensen, Sindre Fritzner, Keguang Wang, Ann Kristin Sperrevik, Martina Idžanović, Thomas Lavergne, Jens Boldingh Debernard, and Kai H. Christensen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5401–5426, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5401-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5401-2023, 2023
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A model to predict ocean currents, temperature, and sea ice is presented, covering the Barents Sea and northern Norway. To quantify forecast uncertainties, the model calculates ensemble forecasts with 24 realizations of ocean and ice conditions. Observations from satellites, buoys, and ships are ingested by the model. The model forecasts are compared with observations, and we show that the ocean model has skill in predicting sea surface temperatures.
Steve Delhaye, Rym Msadek, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, and Laurent Terray
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1748, 2023
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The climate impact of Arctic sea ice loss may depend on the region of sea ice loss and the methodology used to study this impact. This study uses two approaches across seven climate models to investigate the winter atmospheric circulation response to regional sea ice loss. Our findings indicate a consistent atmospheric circulation response to pan-Arctic sea ice loss in most models and across both approaches. In contrast, more uncertainty emerges in the responses linked to regional sea ice loss.
Max Thomas, Briana Cate, Jack Garnett, Inga J. Smith, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Crispin Halsall
The Cryosphere, 17, 3193–3201, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3193-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3193-2023, 2023
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A recent study showed that pollutants can be enriched in growing sea ice beyond what we would expect from a perfectly dissolved chemical. We hypothesise that this effect is caused by the specific properties of the pollutants working in combination with fluid moving through the sea ice. To test our hypothesis, we replicate this behaviour in a sea-ice model and show that this type of modelling can be applied to predicting the transport of chemicals with complex behaviour in sea ice.
Mukesh Gupta, Leandro Ponsoni, Jean Sterlin, François Massonnet, and Thierry Fichefet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1560, 2023
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We explored the relationship of Arctic September minimum sea ice extent with mid-summer melt pond area fraction, under the present-day climate. We confirm through the advanced numerical modelling, with an explicit melt pond scheme in the global climate model, EC-EARTH3, that melt pond fraction in mid-summer (June–July, not May) shows a strong relationship with the Arctic September sea ice extent. Satellite-based inferences validated our findings of this association.
Katherine Hutchinson, Julie Deshayes, Christian Éthé, Clément Rousset, Casimir de Lavergne, Martin Vancoppenolle, Nicolas C. Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3629–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, 2023
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Bottom Water constitutes the lower half of the ocean’s overturning system and is primarily formed in the Weddell and Ross Sea in the Antarctic due to interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and ice shelves. Here we use a global ocean 1° resolution model with explicit representation of the three large ice shelves important for the formation of the parent waters of Bottom Water. We find doing so reduces salt biases, improves water mass realism and gives realistic ice shelf melt rates.
Nicholas Williams, Nicholas Byrne, Daniel Feltham, Peter Jan Van Leeuwen, Ross Bannister, David Schroeder, Andrew Ridout, and Lars Nerger
The Cryosphere, 17, 2509–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2509-2023, 2023
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Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover has reduced over the last 40 years. This study uses ensemble-based data assimilation in a stand-alone sea ice model to investigate the impacts of assimilating three different kinds of sea ice observation, including the novel assimilation of sea ice thickness distribution. We show that assimilating ice thickness distribution has a positive impact on thickness and volume estimates within the ice pack, especially for very thick ice.
Rebecca Caitlin Frew, Daniel Feltham, David Schroeder, and Adam William Bateson
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-91, 2023
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As summer Arctic sea ice extent has retreated, the marginal ice zone (MIZ) has been widening and making up an increasing percentage of the summer sea ice. The MIZ is projected to become a larger percentage of the summer ice cover, as the Arctic transitions to ice free summers. Using a sea ice model we find that the processes and timing of sea ice loss differ in the MIZ to the rest of the sea cover.
David Docquier, Stéphane Vannitsem, and Alessio Bellucci
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 577–591, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-577-2023, 2023
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The climate system is strongly regulated by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere. However, many uncertainties remain in the understanding of these interactions. Our analysis uses a relatively novel approach to quantify causal links between the ocean surface and lower atmosphere based on satellite observations. We find that both the ocean and atmosphere influence each other but with varying intensity depending on the region, demonstrating the power of causal methods.
Xia Lin, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Martin Vancoppenolle
The Cryosphere, 17, 1935–1965, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1935-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1935-2023, 2023
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This study provides clues on how improved atmospheric reanalysis products influence sea ice simulations in ocean–sea ice models. The summer ice concentration simulation in both hemispheres can be improved with changed surface heat fluxes. The winter Antarctic ice concentration and the Arctic drift speed near the ice edge and the ice velocity direction simulations are improved with changed wind stress. The radiation fluxes and winds in atmospheric reanalyses are crucial for sea ice simulations.
Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Clim. Past, 19, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, 2023
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We investigate the response of the atmosphere, ocean, and ice domains to the release of a large volume of glacial meltwaters thought to have occurred during the Last Interglacial period. We show that the signal that originated in the North Atlantic travels over great distances across the globe. It modifies the ocean gyre circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as the belt of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for Antarctic sea ice.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
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Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin G. Jones, Steven T. Rumbold, Till Kuhlbrodt, Andrea J. Dittus, Edward W. Blockley, Andrew Yool, Jeremy Walton, Catherine Hardacre, Timothy Andrews, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Marc Stringer, Lee de Mora, Phil Harris, Richard Hill, Doug Kelley, Eddy Robertson, and Yongming Tang
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1569–1600, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1569-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1569-2023, 2023
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Recent global climate models simulate historical global mean surface temperatures which are too cold, possibly to due to excessive aerosol cooling. This raises questions about the models' ability to simulate important climate processes and reduces confidence in future climate predictions. We present a new version of the UK Earth System Model, which has an improved aerosols simulation and a historical temperature record. Interestingly, the long-term response to CO2 remains largely unchanged.
Yafei Nie, Chengkun Li, Martin Vancoppenolle, Bin Cheng, Fabio Boeira Dias, Xianqing Lv, and Petteri Uotila
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1395–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1395-2023, 2023
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State-of-the-art Earth system models simulate the observed sea ice extent relatively well, but this is often due to errors in the dynamic and other processes in the simulated sea ice changes cancelling each other out. We assessed the sensitivity of these processes simulated by the coupled ocean–sea ice model NEMO4.0-SI3 to 18 parameters. The performance of the model in simulating sea ice change processes was ultimately improved by adjusting the three identified key parameters.
Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Nicole P. M. van Lipzig
The Cryosphere, 17, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-407-2023, 2023
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Using idealized sensitivity experiments with a regional atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we show that sea ice advance is constrained by initial conditions in March and the retreat season is influenced by the magnitude of several physical processes, in particular by the ice–albedo feedback and ice transport. Atmospheric feedbacks amplify the response of the winter ice extent to perturbations, while some negative feedbacks related to heat conduction fluxes act on the ice volume.
Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, David A. Bailey, Nan Rosenbloom, Brian Dobbins, Walker R. Lee, Mari Tye, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8221–8243, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8221-2022, 2022
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Solar climate intervention using stratospheric aerosol injection is a proposed method of reducing global mean temperatures to reduce the worst consequences of climate change. We present a new modeling protocol aimed at simulating a plausible deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection and reproducibility of simulations using other Earth system models: Assessing Responses and Impacts of Solar climate intervention on the Earth system with stratospheric aerosol injection (ARISE-SAI).
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Alex West, Edward Blockley, and Matthew Collins
The Cryosphere, 16, 4013–4032, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4013-2022, 2022
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In this study we explore a method of examining model differences in ice volume by looking at the seasonal ice growth and melt. We use simple physical relationships to judge how model differences in key variables affect ice growth and melt and apply these to three case study models with ice volume ranging from very thin to very thick. Results suggest that differences in snow and melt pond cover in early summer are most important in causing the sea ice differences for these models.
Stephen G. Yeager, Nan Rosenbloom, Anne A. Glanville, Xian Wu, Isla Simpson, Hui Li, Maria J. Molina, Kristen Krumhardt, Samuel Mogen, Keith Lindsay, Danica Lombardozzi, Will Wieder, Who M. Kim, Jadwiga H. Richter, Matthew Long, Gokhan Danabasoglu, David Bailey, Marika Holland, Nicole Lovenduski, Warren G. Strand, and Teagan King
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6451–6493, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022, 2022
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The Earth system changes over a range of time and space scales, and some of these changes are predictable in advance. Short-term weather forecasts are most familiar, but recent work has shown that it is possible to generate useful predictions several seasons or even a decade in advance. This study focuses on predictions over intermediate timescales (up to 24 months in advance) and shows that there is promising potential to forecast a variety of changes in the natural environment.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Adam William Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schröder, Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Jeff K. Ridley, and Yevgeny Aksenov
The Cryosphere, 16, 2565–2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, 2022
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Numerical models are used to understand the mechanisms that drive the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover. The sea ice cover is formed of pieces of ice called floes. Several recent studies have proposed variable floe size models to replace the standard model assumption of a fixed floe size. In this study we show the need to include floe fragmentation processes in these variable floe size models and demonstrate that model design can determine the impact of floe size on size ice evolution.
Pedro Duarte, Jostein Brændshøi, Dmitry Shcherbin, Pauline Barras, Jon Albretsen, Yvonne Gusdal, Nicholas Szapiro, Andreas Martinsen, Annette Samuelsen, Keguang Wang, and Jens Boldingh Debernard
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4373–4392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4373-2022, 2022
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Sea ice models are often implemented for very large domains beyond the regions of sea ice formation, such as the whole Arctic or all of Antarctica. In this study, we implement changes in the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model, allowing it to be implemented for relatively small regions within the Arctic or Antarctica and yet considering the presence and influence of sea ice outside the represented areas. Such regional implementations are important when spatially detailed results are required.
Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022
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We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
Steve Delhaye, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Rym Msadek, Svenya Chripko, Christopher Roberts, Sarah Keeley, and Retish Senan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 555–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, 2022
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It is unclear how the atmosphere will respond to a retreat of summer Arctic sea ice. Much attention has been paid so far to weather extremes at mid-latitude and in winter. Here we focus on the changes in extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over the Arctic regions in summer during and following abrupt sea ice retreats. We find that Arctic sea ice loss clearly shifts the extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over terrestrial regions surrounding the Arctic Ocean.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
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The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Yunhe Wang, Xiaojun Yuan, Haibo Bi, Mitchell Bushuk, Yu Liang, Cuihua Li, and Haijun Huang
The Cryosphere, 16, 1141–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1141-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1141-2022, 2022
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We develop a regional linear Markov model consisting of four modules with seasonally dependent variables in the Pacific sector. The model retains skill for detrended sea ice extent predictions for up to 7-month lead times in the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. The prediction skill, as measured by the percentage of grid points with significant correlations (PGS), increased by 75 % in the Bering Sea and 16 % in the Sea of Okhotsk relative to the earlier pan-Arctic model.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Emma K. Fiedler, Matthew J. Martin, Ed Blockley, Davi Mignac, Nicolas Fournier, Andy Ridout, Andrew Shepherd, and Rachel Tilling
The Cryosphere, 16, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-61-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-61-2022, 2022
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Sea ice thickness (SIT) observations derived from CryoSat-2 satellite measurements have been successfully used to initialise an ocean and sea ice forecasting model (FOAM). Other centres have previously used gridded and averaged SIT observations for this purpose, but we demonstrate here for the first time that SIT measurements along the satellite orbit track can be used. Validation of the resulting modelled SIT demonstrates improvements in the model performance compared to a control.
Hakase Hayashida, Meibing Jin, Nadja S. Steiner, Neil C. Swart, Eiji Watanabe, Russell Fiedler, Andrew McC. Hogg, Andrew E. Kiss, Richard J. Matear, and Peter G. Strutton
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6847–6861, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6847-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6847-2021, 2021
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Ice algae are tiny plants like phytoplankton but they grow within sea ice. In polar regions, both phytoplankton and ice algae are the foundation of marine ecosystems and play an important role in taking up carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, state-of-the-art climate models typically do not include ice algae, and therefore their role in the climate system remains unclear. This project aims to address this knowledge gap by coordinating a set of experiments using sea-ice–ocean models.
Rachel Diamond, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, and Maria-Vittoria Guarino
The Cryosphere, 15, 5099–5114, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021, 2021
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The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) is the first coupled climate model to simulate an ice-free summer Arctic during the Last Interglacial (LIG), 127 000 years ago, and yields accurate Arctic surface temperatures. We investigate the causes and impacts of this extreme simulated ice loss and, in particular, the role of melt ponds.
Xia Lin, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6331–6354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6331-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6331-2021, 2021
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This study introduces a new Sea Ice Evaluation Tool (SITool) to evaluate the model skills on the bipolar sea ice simulations by providing performance metrics and diagnostics. SITool is applied to evaluate the CMIP6 OMIP simulations. By changing the atmospheric forcing from CORE-II to JRA55-do data, many aspects of sea ice simulations are improved. SITool will be useful for helping teams managing various versions of a sea ice model or tracking the time evolution of model performance.
Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Philippe Le Sager, Declan O'Donnell, Risto Makkonen, María Gonçalves-Ageitos, Ralf Döscher, Uwe Fladrich, Jost von Hardenberg, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Hannele Korhonen, Anton Laakso, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Pirkka Ollinaho, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Thomas Reerink, Roland Schrödner, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5637–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5637-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5637-2021, 2021
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This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in CMIP6. We give an overview of the model and describe in detail how it differs from its predecessor and the other EC-Earth3 configurations. The model's performance is characterized using coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The model has an effective equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.9 °C and a transient climate response of 2.1 °C.
Klaus Wyser, Torben Koenigk, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Mehdi Pasha Karami, and Tim Kruschke
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4781–4796, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4781-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4781-2021, 2021
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This paper describes the large ensemble done by SMHI with the EC-Earth3 climate model. The ensemble comprises 50 realizations for each of the historical experiments after 1970 and four different future projections for CMIP6. We describe the creation of the initial states for the ensemble and the reduced set of output variables. A first look at the results illustrates the changes in the climate during this century and puts them in relation to the uncertainty from the model's internal variability.
Tian Tian, Shuting Yang, Mehdi Pasha Karami, François Massonnet, Tim Kruschke, and Torben Koenigk
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4283–4305, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021, 2021
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Three decadal prediction experiments with EC-Earth3 are performed to investigate the impact of ocean, sea ice concentration and thickness initialization, respectively. We find that the persistence of perennial thick ice in the central Arctic can affect the sea ice predictability in its adjacent waters via advection process or wind, despite those regions being seasonally ice free during two recent decades. This has implications for the coming decades as the thinning of Arctic sea ice continues.
Erik Johansson, Abhay Devasthale, Michael Tjernström, Annica M. L. Ekman, Klaus Wyser, and Tristan L'Ecuyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4087-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4087-2021, 2021
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Understanding the coupling of clouds to large-scale circulation is a grand challenge for the climate community. Cloud radiative heating (CRH) is a key parameter in this coupling and is therefore essential to model realistically. We, therefore, evaluate a climate model against satellite observations. Our findings indicate good agreement in the seasonal pattern of CRH even if the magnitude differs. We also find that increasing the horizontal resolution in the model has little effect on the CRH.
Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Colin G. Jones, Lee de Mora, Till Kuhlbrodt, Ekatarina E. Popova, A. J. George Nurser, Joel Hirschi, Adam T. Blaker, Andrew C. Coward, Edward W. Blockley, and Alistair A. Sellar
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3437–3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3437-2021, 2021
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The ocean plays a key role in modulating the Earth’s climate. Understanding this role is critical when using models to project future climate change. Consequently, it is necessary to evaluate their realism against the ocean's observed state. Here we validate UKESM1, a new Earth system model, focusing on the realism of its ocean physics and circulation, as well as its biological cycles and productivity. While we identify biases, generally the model performs well over a wide range of properties.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Qiong Zhang, Ellen Berntell, Josefine Axelsson, Jie Chen, Zixuan Han, Wesley de Nooijer, Zhengyao Lu, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1147–1169, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1147-2021, 2021
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Paleoclimate modelling has long been regarded as a strong out-of-sample test bed of the climate models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. Here, we document the model experimental setups for the three past warm periods with EC-Earth3-LR and present the results on the large-scale features. The simulations demonstrate good performance of the model in capturing the climate response under different climate forcings.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Qian Shi, Qinghua Yang, Longjiang Mu, Jinfei Wang, François Massonnet, and Matthew R. Mazloff
The Cryosphere, 15, 31–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-31-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-31-2021, 2021
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The ice thickness from four state-of-the-art reanalyses (GECCO2, SOSE, NEMO-EnKF and GIOMAS) are evaluated against that from remote sensing and in situ observations in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Most of the reanalyses can reproduce ice thickness in the central and eastern Weddell Sea but failed to capture the thick and deformed ice in the western Weddell Sea. These results demonstrate the possibilities and limitations of using current sea-ice reanalysis in Antarctic climate research.
Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Toniazzo, Ada Gjermundsen, Lise Seland Graff, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Alok Kumar Gupta, Yan-Chun He, Alf Kirkevåg, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, Kjetil Schanke Aas, Ingo Bethke, Yuanchao Fan, Jan Griesfeller, Alf Grini, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Inger Helene Hafsahl Karset, Oskar Landgren, Johan Liakka, Kine Onsum Moseid, Aleksi Nummelin, Clemens Spensberger, Hui Tang, Zhongshi Zhang, Christoph Heinze, Trond Iversen, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6165–6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6165-2020, 2020
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The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. The temperature and precipitation patterns has improved compared to NorESM1. The model reaches present-day warming levels to within 0.2 °C of observed temperature but with a delayed warming during the late 20th century. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period of 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.1, and 3.9 K.
Guillian Van Achter, Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, and Vincent Legat
The Cryosphere, 14, 3479–3486, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3479-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3479-2020, 2020
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We document the spatio-temporal internal variability of Arctic sea ice thickness and its changes under anthropogenic forcing, which is key to understanding, and eventually predicting, the evolution of sea ice in response to climate change.
The patterns of sea ice thickness variability remain more or less stable during pre-industrial, historical and future periods, despite non-stationarity on short timescales. These patterns start to change once Arctic summer ice-free events occur, after 2050.
Alex West, Mat Collins, and Ed Blockley
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4845–4868, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4845-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4845-2020, 2020
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This study calculates sea ice energy fluxes from data produced by ice mass balance buoys (devices measuring ice elevation and temperature). It is shown how the resulting dataset can be used to evaluate a coupled climate model (HadGEM2-ES), with biases in the energy fluxes seen to be consistent with biases in the sea ice state and surface radiation. This method has potential to improve sea ice model evaluation, so as to better understand spread in model simulations of sea ice state.
Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, and François Massonnet
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4773–4787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4773-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4773-2020, 2020
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Climate models need to capture sea ice complexity to represent it realistically. Here we assess how distributing sea ice in discrete thickness categories impacts how sea ice variability is simulated in the NEMO3.6–LIM3 model. Simulations and satellite observations are compared by using k-means clustering of sea ice concentration in winter and summer between 1979 and 2014 at both poles. Little improvements in the modeled sea ice lead us to recommend using the standard number of five categories.
Hiroyuki Tsujino, L. Shogo Urakawa, Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Alistair J. Adcroft, Arthur E. Amaral, Thomas Arsouze, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Claus W. Böning, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Sergey Danilov, Raphael Dussin, Eleftheria Exarchou, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Doroteaciro Iovino, Who M. Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, Vladimir Lapin, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Keith Lindsay, Hailong Liu, Matthew C. Long, Yoshiki Komuro, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Aleksi Nummelin, Jan Klaus Rieck, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Markus Scheinert, Valentina Sicardi, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tatsuo Suzuki, Hiroaki Tatebe, Qiang Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Zipeng Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3643–3708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, 2020
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The OMIP-2 framework for global ocean–sea-ice model simulations is assessed by comparing multi-model means from 11 CMIP6-class global ocean–sea-ice models calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations. Many features are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations, and yet key improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP-2 are also identified. Thus, the present assessment justifies that future ocean–sea-ice model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework.
Rein Haarsma, Mario Acosta, Rena Bakhshi, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Susanna Corti, Paolo Davini, Eleftheria Exarchou, Federico Fabiano, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes Franco, Javier García-Serrano, Jost von Hardenberg, Torben Koenigk, Xavier Levine, Virna Loana Meccia, Twan van Noije, Gijs van den Oord, Froila M. Palmeiro, Mario Rodrigo, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Etienne Tourigny, Shiyu Wang, Michiel van Weele, and Klaus Wyser
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3507–3527, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3507-2020, 2020
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HighResMIP is an international coordinated CMIP6 effort to investigate the improvement in climate modeling caused by an increase in horizontal resolution. This paper describes EC-Earth3P-(HR), which has been developed for HighResMIP. First analyses reveal that increasing resolution does improve certain aspects of the simulated climate but that many other biases still continue, possibly related to phenomena that are still not yet resolved and need to be parameterized.
Klaus Wyser, Twan van Noije, Shuting Yang, Jost von Hardenberg, Declan O'Donnell, and Ralf Döscher
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3465–3474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3465-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3465-2020, 2020
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The EC-Earth model used for CMIP6 is found to have a higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) than its predecessor used for CMIP5. In a series of sensitivity experiments, we investigate which model updates since CMIP5 have contributed to the increase in ECS. The main reason for the higher sensitivity in the EC-Earth model is the improved representation of the aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions.
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, 2020
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility.
Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Guillian Van Achter, and Thierry Fichefet
The Cryosphere, 14, 2409–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, 2020
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The continuous melting of the Arctic sea ice observed in the last decades has a significant impact at global and regional scales. To understand the amplitude and consequences of this impact, the monitoring of the total sea ice volume is crucial. However, in situ monitoring in such a harsh environment is hard to perform and far too expensive. This study shows that four well-placed sampling locations are sufficient to explain about 70 % of the inter-annual changes in the pan-Arctic sea ice volume.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
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We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Rebecca J. Rolph, Daniel L. Feltham, and David Schröder
The Cryosphere, 14, 1971–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1971-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1971-2020, 2020
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It is well known that the Arctic sea ice extent is declining, and it is often assumed that the marginal ice zone (MIZ), the area of partial sea ice cover, is consequently increasing. However, we find no trend in the MIZ extent during the last 40 years from observations that is consistent with a widening of the MIZ as it moves northward. Differences of MIZ extent between different satellite retrievals are too large to provide a robust basis to verify model simulations of MIZ extent.
François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Mario Acosta, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Eleftheria Exarchou, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1165–1178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1165-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1165-2020, 2020
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Earth system models (ESMs) are one of the cornerstones of modern climate science. They are usually run on high-performance computers (HPCs). Whether the choice of HPC can affect the model results is a question of importance for optimizing the design of scientific studies. Here, we introduce a protocol for testing the replicability of the EC-Earth3 ESM across different HPCs. We find the simulation results to be replicable only if specific precautions are taken at the compilation stage.
Adam W. Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schröder, Lucia Hosekova, Jeff K. Ridley, and Yevgeny Aksenov
The Cryosphere, 14, 403–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-403-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-403-2020, 2020
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The Arctic sea ice cover has been observed to be decreasing, particularly in summer. We use numerical models to gain insight into processes controlling its seasonal and decadal evolution. Sea ice is made of pieces of ice called floes. Previous models have set these floes to be the same size, which is not supported by observations. In this study we show that accounting for variable floe size reveals the importance of sea ice regions close to the open ocean in driving seasonal retreat of sea ice.
Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schroeder, Grenville M. S. Lister, and Rosalyn Hatcher
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 139–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, 2020
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When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. Here, we investigate the behaviour of the Preindustrial simulation prepared by the UK Met Office for the forthcoming CMIP6 under different computing environments. Discrepancies between the means of key climate variables were analysed at different timescales, from decadal to centennial.
Malcolm J. Roberts, Alex Baker, Ed W. Blockley, Daley Calvert, Andrew Coward, Helene T. Hewitt, Laura C. Jackson, Till Kuhlbrodt, Pierre Mathiot, Christopher D. Roberts, Reinhard Schiemann, Jon Seddon, Benoît Vannière, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4999–5028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4999-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4999-2019, 2019
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We investigate the role that horizontal grid spacing plays in global coupled climate model simulations, together with examining the efficacy of a new design of simulation experiments that is being used by the community for multi-model comparison. We found that finer grid spacing in both atmosphere and ocean–sea ice models leads to a general reduction in bias compared to observations, and that once eddies in the ocean are resolved, several key climate processes are greatly improved.
Neil C. Swart, Jason N. S. Cole, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Mike Lazare, John F. Scinocca, Nathan P. Gillett, James Anstey, Vivek Arora, James R. Christian, Sarah Hanna, Yanjun Jiao, Warren G. Lee, Fouad Majaess, Oleg A. Saenko, Christian Seiler, Clint Seinen, Andrew Shao, Michael Sigmond, Larry Solheim, Knut von Salzen, Duo Yang, and Barbara Winter
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4823–4873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019, 2019
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The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) is a global model developed to simulate historical climate change and variability, to make centennial-scale projections of future climate, and to produce initialized seasonal and decadal predictions. This paper describes the model components and quantifies the model performance. CanESM5 simulations contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and will be employed for climate science applications in Canada.
Renaud Person, Olivier Aumont, Gurvan Madec, Martin Vancoppenolle, Laurent Bopp, and Nacho Merino
Biogeosciences, 16, 3583–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3583-2019, 2019
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is considered a possibly important but largely overlooked source of iron (Fe). Here we explore its fertilization capacity by evaluating the response of marine biogeochemistry to Fe release from icebergs and ice shelves in a global ocean model. Large regional impacts are simulated, leading to only modest primary production and carbon export increases at the scale of the Southern Ocean. Large uncertainties are due to low observational constraints on modeling choices.
Manu Anna Thomas, Abhay Devasthale, Tristan L'Ecuyer, Shiyu Wang, Torben Koenigk, and Klaus Wyser
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3759–3772, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3759-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3759-2019, 2019
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Snow cover significantly influences the surface albedo and radiation budget. Therefore, a realistic representation of snowfall in climate models is important. Here, using decade-long estimates of snowfall derived from the satellite sensor, four climate models are evaluated to assess how well they simulate snowfall in the Arctic. It is found that light and median snowfall is overestimated by the models in comparison to the satellite observations, and extreme snowfall is underestimated.
François Massonnet, Antoine Barthélemy, Koffi Worou, Thierry Fichefet, Martin Vancoppenolle, Clément Rousset, and Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3745–3758, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3745-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3745-2019, 2019
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Sea ice thickness varies considerably on spatial scales of several meters. However, contemporary climate models cannot resolve such scales yet. This is why sea ice models used in climate models include an ice thickness distribution (ITD) to account for this unresolved variability. Here, we explore with the ocean–sea ice model NEMO3.6-LIM3 the sensitivity of simulated mean Arctic and Antarctic sea ice states to the way the ITD is discretized.
Alex West, Mat Collins, Ed Blockley, Jeff Ridley, and Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo
The Cryosphere, 13, 2001–2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2001-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2001-2019, 2019
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This study presents a framework for examining the causes of model errors in Arctic sea ice volume, using HadGEM2-ES as a case study. Simple models are used to estimate how much of the error in energy arriving at the ice surface is due to error in key Arctic climate variables. The method quantifies how each variable affects sea ice volume balance and shows that for HadGEM2-ES an annual mean low bias in ice thickness is likely due to errors in surface melt onset.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Manu Anna Thomas, Abhay Devasthale, Torben Koenigk, Klaus Wyser, Malcolm Roberts, Christopher Roberts, and Katja Lohmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1679–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1679-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1679-2019, 2019
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Cloud processes occur at scales ranging from few micrometres to hundreds of kilometres. Their representation in global climate models and their fidelity are thus sensitive to the choice of spatial resolution. Here, cloud radiative effects simulated by models are evaluated using a satellite dataset, with a focus on investigating the sensitivity to spatial resolution. The evaluations are carried out using two approaches: the traditional statistical comparisons and the process-oriented evaluation.
Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Matthieu Chevallier, and David Docquier
The Cryosphere, 13, 521–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-521-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-521-2019, 2019
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The Arctic is a main component of the Earth's climate system. It is fundamental to understand the behavior of Arctic sea ice coverage over time and in space due to many factors, e.g., shipping lanes, the travel and tourism industry, hunting and fishing activities, mineral resource extraction, and the potential impact on the weather in midlatitude regions. In this work we use observations and results from models to understand how variations in the sea ice thickness change over time and in space.
David Schröder, Danny L. Feltham, Michel Tsamados, Andy Ridout, and Rachel Tilling
The Cryosphere, 13, 125–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-125-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-125-2019, 2019
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This paper uses sea ice thickness data (CryoSat-2) to identify and correct shortcomings in simulating winter ice growth in the widely used sea ice model CICE. Adding a model of snow drift and using a different scheme for calculating the ice conductivity improve model results. Sensitivity studies demonstrate that atmospheric winter conditions have little impact on winter ice growth, and the fate of Arctic summer sea ice is largely controlled by atmospheric conditions during the melting season.
Marion Lebrun, Martin Vancoppenolle, Gurvan Madec, and François Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 13, 79–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019, 2019
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The present analysis shows that the increase in the Arctic ice-free season duration will be asymmetrical, with later autumn freeze-up contributing about twice as much as earlier spring retreat. This feature is robustly found in a hierarchy of climate models and is consistent with a simple mechanism: solar energy is absorbed more efficiently than it can be released in non-solar form and should emerge out of variability within the next few decades.
Sammie Buzzard, Daniel Feltham, and Daniela Flocco
The Cryosphere, 12, 3565–3575, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3565-2018, 2018
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Surface lakes on ice shelves can not only change the amount of solar energy the ice shelf receives, but may also play a pivotal role in sudden ice shelf collapse such as that of the Larsen B Ice Shelf in 2002.
Here we simulate current and future melting on Larsen C, Antarctica’s most northern ice shelf and one on which lakes have been observed. We find that should future lakes occur closer to the ice shelf front, they may contain sufficient meltwater to contribute to ice shelf instability.
Edward W. Blockley and K. Andrew Peterson
The Cryosphere, 12, 3419–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018, 2018
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Arctic sea-ice prediction on seasonal time scales is becoming increasingly more relevant to society but the predictive capability of forecasting systems is low. Several studies suggest initialization of sea-ice thickness (SIT) could improve the skill of seasonal prediction systems. Here for the first time we test the impact of SIT initialization in the Met Office's GloSea coupled prediction system using CryoSat-2 data. We show significant improvements to Arctic extent and ice edge location.
Jeff K. Ridley and Edward W. Blockley
The Cryosphere, 12, 3355–3360, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3355-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3355-2018, 2018
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The climate change conference held in Paris in 2016 made a commitment to limiting global-mean warming since the pre-industrial era to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the warming to 1.5 °C. Since global warming is already at 1 °C, the 1.5 °C can only be achieved at considerable cost. It is thus important to assess the risks associated with the higher target. This paper shows that the decline of Arctic sea ice, and associated impacts, can only be halted with the 1.5 °C target.
Ann Keen and Ed Blockley
The Cryosphere, 12, 2855–2868, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2855-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2855-2018, 2018
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As the climate warms during the 21st century, our model shows extra melting at the top and the base of the Arctic sea ice. The reducing ice cover affects the impact these processes have on the sea ice volume budget, where the largest individual change is a reduction in the amount of growth at the base of existing ice. Using different forcing scenarios we show that, for this model, changes in the volume budget depend on the evolving ice area but not on the speed at which the ice area declines.
David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Pierre Mathiot, Alex Megann, Yevgeny Aksenov, Edward W. Blockley, Daley Calvert, Tim Graham, Helene T. Hewitt, Patrick Hyder, Till Kuhlbrodt, Jamie G. L. Rae, and Bablu Sinha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3187–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3187-2018, 2018
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We document the latest version of the shared UK global configuration of the
NEMO ocean model. This configuration will be used as part of the climate
models for the UK contribution to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report.
30-year integrations forced with atmospheric forcing show that the new
configurations have an improved simulation in the Southern Ocean with the
near-surface temperatures and salinities and the sea ice all matching the
observations more closely.
Julienne C. Stroeve, David Schroder, Michel Tsamados, and Daniel Feltham
The Cryosphere, 12, 1791–1809, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1791-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1791-2018, 2018
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This paper looks at the impact of the warm winter and anomalously low number of total freezing degree days during winter 2016/2017 on thermodynamic ice growth and overall thickness anomalies. The approach relies on evaluation of satellite data (CryoSat-2) and model output. While there is a negative feedback between rapid ice growth for thin ice, with thermodynamic ice growth increasing over time, since 2012 that relationship is changing, in part because the freeze-up is happening later.
Jeff K. Ridley, Edward W. Blockley, Ann B. Keen, Jamie G. L. Rae, Alex E. West, and David Schroeder
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 713–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-713-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-713-2018, 2018
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The sea ice component of the Met Office coupled climate model, HadGEM3-GC3.1, is presented and evaluated. We determine that the mean state of the sea ice is well reproduced for the Arctic; however, a warm sea surface temperature bias over the Southern Ocean results in a low Antarctic sea ice cover.
Jamie G. L. Rae, Alexander D. Todd, Edward W. Blockley, and Jeff K. Ridley
The Cryosphere, 11, 3023–3034, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017, 2017
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Several studies have highlighted links between Arctic summer storms and September sea ice extent in observations. Here we use model and reanalysis data to investigate the sensitivity of such links to the analytical methods used, in order to determine their robustness. The links were found to depend on the resolution of the model and dataset, the method used to identify storms and the time period used in the analysis. We therefore recommend caution when interpreting the results of such studies.
Petri Räisänen, Risto Makkonen, Alf Kirkevåg, and Jens B. Debernard
The Cryosphere, 11, 2919–2942, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2919-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2919-2017, 2017
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While snow grains are non-spherical, spheres are often assumed in radiation calculations. Here, we replace spherical snow grains with non-spherical snow grains in a climate model. This leads to a somewhat higher snow albedo (by 0.02–0.03), increased snow and sea ice cover, and a distinctly colder climate (by over 1 K in the global mean). It also impacts the radiative effects of aerosols in snow. Overall, this work highlights the important role of snow albedo parameterization for climate models.
David Docquier, François Massonnet, Antoine Barthélemy, Neil F. Tandon, Olivier Lecomte, and Thierry Fichefet
The Cryosphere, 11, 2829–2846, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2829-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2829-2017, 2017
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Our study provides a new way to evaluate the performance of a climate model regarding the interplay between sea ice motion, area and thickness in the Arctic against different observation datasets. We show that the NEMO-LIM model is good in that respect and that the relationships between the different sea ice variables are complex. The metrics we developed can be used in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), which will feed the next IPCC report.
Luke G. Bennetts, Siobhan O'Farrell, and Petteri Uotila
The Cryosphere, 11, 1035–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1035-2017, 2017
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A numerical model is used to investigate how Antarctic sea ice concentration and volume are affected by increased melting caused by ocean-wave breakup of the ice. When temperatures are high enough to melt the ice, concentration and volume are reduced for ~ 100 km into the ice-covered ocean. When temperatures are low enough for ice growth, the concentration recovers, but the reduced volume persists.
Petteri Uotila, Doroteaciro Iovino, Martin Vancoppenolle, Mikko Lensu, and Clement Rousset
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1009–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1009-2017, 2017
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We performed ocean model simulations with new and old sea-ice components. Sea ice improved in the new model compared to the earlier one due to better model physics. In the ocean, the largest differences are confined close to the surface within and near the sea-ice zone. The global ocean circulation slowly deviates between the simulations due to dissimilar sea ice in the deep water formation regions, such as the North Atlantic and Antarctic.
Dirk Notz, Alexandra Jahn, Marika Holland, Elizabeth Hunke, François Massonnet, Julienne Stroeve, Bruno Tremblay, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3427–3446, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3427-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3427-2016, 2016
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The large-scale evolution of sea ice is both an indicator and a driver of climate changes. Hence, a realistic simulation of sea ice is key for a realistic simulation of the climate system of our planet. To assess and to improve the realism of sea-ice simulations, we present here a new protocol for climate-model output that allows for an in-depth analysis of the simulated evolution of sea ice.
Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul J. Durack, Alistair J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, Claus W. Böning, Eric P. Chassignet, Enrique Curchitser, Julie Deshayes, Helge Drange, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Peter J. Gleckler, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helmuth Haak, Robert W. Hallberg, Patrick Heimbach, Helene T. Hewitt, David M. Holland, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Yoshiki Komuro, John P. Krasting, William G. Large, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Trevor J. McDougall, A. J. George Nurser, James C. Orr, Anna Pirani, Fangli Qiao, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, Anne Marie Treguier, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Petteri Uotila, Maria Valdivieso, Qiang Wang, Michael Winton, and Stephen G. Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This document defines OMIP and details a protocol both for simulating global ocean/sea-ice models and for analysing their output.
Alek A. Petty, Michel C. Tsamados, Nathan T. Kurtz, Sinead L. Farrell, Thomas Newman, Jeremy P. Harbeck, Daniel L. Feltham, and Jackie A. Richter-Menge
The Cryosphere, 10, 1161–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1161-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1161-2016, 2016
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This study presents an analysis of Arctic sea ice topography using high-resolution, three-dimensional surface elevation data from the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) laser altimeter, flown as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge mission. We describe and implement a newly developed sea ice surface feature-picking algorithm and derive novel information regarding the height, volume and geometry of surface features over the western Arctic sea ice cover.
Daniela Flocco, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schroeder, and Michel Tsamados
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-118, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
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Melt ponds form over the sea ice cover in the Arctic and impact the surface albedo inducing a positive feedback leading to further melting.
While they refreeze, ponds delay basal sea ice growth in Autumn impacting the internal sea ice temperature and therefore its basal growth rate. By using a numerical model we estimate an inhibited basal growth of up to 228 km3, which represents 25 % of the basal sea ice growth estimated by PIOMAS during the months of September and October.
J. K. Ridley, R. A. Wood, A. B. Keen, E. Blockley, and J. A. Lowe
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-28, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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The internal variability in model projections of Arctic sea ice extent is high. As a consequence an ensemble of projections from a single model can show considerable scatter in the range of dates for an "ice-free" Arctic. This paper investigates if the scatter can be reduced for a variety of definitions of "ice-free". Daily GCM data reveals that only a high emissions scenario results in the optimal definition of five conservative years in with ice extent is below one million square kilometer.
J. L. Lieser, M. A. J. Curran, A. R. Bowie, A. T. Davidson, S. J. Doust, A. D. Fraser, B. K. Galton-Fenzi, R. A. Massom, K. M. Meiners, J. Melbourne-Thomas, P. A. Reid, P. G. Strutton, T. R. Vance, M. Vancoppenolle, K. J. Westwood, and S. W. Wright
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-6187-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-6187-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
C. Rousset, M. Vancoppenolle, G. Madec, T. Fichefet, S. Flavoni, A. Barthélemy, R. Benshila, J. Chanut, C. Levy, S. Masson, and F. Vivier
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2991–3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2991-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2991-2015, 2015
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LIM3.6 presented in this paper is the last release of the Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model, and will be used for the next climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6). The model's robustness, versatility and sophistication have been improved.
J. G. L. Rae, H. T. Hewitt, A. B. Keen, J. K. Ridley, A. E. West, C. M. Harris, E. C. Hunke, and D. N. Walters
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2221–2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2221-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2221-2015, 2015
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The paper presents a new sea ice configuration, GSI6.0, in the Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice model. Differences in the sea ice from a previous configuration (GSI4.0) are explained in the context of a previously published sensitivity study. In summer, Arctic sea ice is thicker and more extensive than in GSI4.0, bringing it closer to the observationally derived data sets. In winter, the Arctic ice is thicker but less extensive than in GSI4.0.
N. C. Swart, J. C. Fyfe, O. A. Saenko, and M. Eby
Biogeosciences, 11, 6107–6117, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6107-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6107-2014, 2014
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Estimates of ocean carbon uptake from ocean biogeochemical models are key to our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Such estimates suggest that ocean carbon uptake is decreasing due to climate change, and particularly due to strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere winds. We show that these model-based estimates are highly uncertain due to poorly resolved physical processes (mesoscale ocean eddies) and uncertainty in the observed surface wind forcing used to drive the models.
E. W. Blockley, M. J. Martin, A. J. McLaren, A. G. Ryan, J. Waters, D. J. Lea, I. Mirouze, K. A. Peterson, A. Sellar, and D. Storkey
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2613–2638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2613-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2613-2014, 2014
S. Wang, D. Bailey, K. Lindsay, J. K. Moore, and M. Holland
Biogeosciences, 11, 4713–4731, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4713-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4713-2014, 2014
P. J. Hezel, T. Fichefet, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 8, 1195–1204, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014, 2014
A. A. Petty, P. R. Holland, and D. L. Feltham
The Cryosphere, 8, 761–783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-761-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-761-2014, 2014
K. Sakamoto, H. Tsujino, H. Nakano, M. Hirabara, and G. Yamanaka
Ocean Sci., 9, 1089–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-1089-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-1089-2013, 2013
M. S. Johnston, S. Eliasson, P. Eriksson, R. M. Forbes, K. Wyser, and M. D. Zelinka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 12043–12058, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12043-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12043-2013, 2013
M. Vancoppenolle, D. Notz, F. Vivier, J. Tison, B. Delille, G. Carnat, J. Zhou, F. Jardon, P. Griewank, A. Lourenço, and T. Haskell
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-3209-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-3209-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
A. E. West, A. B. Keen, and H. T. Hewitt
The Cryosphere, 7, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-555-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-555-2013, 2013
V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet
The Cryosphere, 7, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-451-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Discipline: Sea ice | Subject: Sea Ice
Seasonal evolution of the sea ice floe size distribution in the Beaufort Sea from 2 decades of MODIS data
Suitability of the CICE sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization
A large-scale high-resolution numerical model for sea-ice fragmentation dynamics
Experimental modelling of the growth of tubular ice brinicles from brine flows under sea ice
Why is summertime Arctic sea ice drift speed projected to decrease?
Impact of atmospheric rivers on Arctic sea ice variations
The impacts of anomalies in atmospheric circulations on Arctic sea ice outflow and sea ice conditions in the Barents and Greenland seas: case study in 2020
Atmospheric highs drive asymmetric sea ice drift during lead opening from Point Barrow
Spatial characteristics of frazil streaks in the Terra Nova Bay Polynya from high-resolution visible satellite imagery
Modelling the evolution of Arctic multiyear sea ice over 2000–2018
A quasi-objective single-buoy approach for understanding Lagrangian coherent structures and sea ice dynamics
Linking scales of sea ice surface topography: evaluation of ICESat-2 measurements with coincident helicopter laser scanning during MOSAiC
Analysis of microseismicity in sea ice with deep learning and Bayesian inference: application to high-resolution thickness monitoring
A collection of wet beam models for wave–ice interaction
First results of Antarctic sea ice type retrieval from active and passive microwave remote sensing data
Probabilistic spatiotemporal seasonal sea ice presence forecasting using sequence-to-sequence learning and ERA5 data in the Hudson Bay region
Predictability of Arctic sea ice drift in coupled climate models
Recovering and monitoring the thickness, density, and elastic properties of sea ice from seismic noise recorded in Svalbard
Influences of changing sea ice and snow thicknesses on simulated Arctic winter heat fluxes
Reassessing seasonal sea ice predictability of the Pacific-Arctic sector using a Markov model
A new state-dependent parameterization for the free drift of sea ice
Arctic sea ice sensitivity to lateral melting representation in a coupled climate model
Retrieval and parameterisation of sea-ice bulk density from airborne multi-sensor measurements
A generalized stress correction scheme for the Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology: impact on the fracture angles and deformations
Wave dispersion and dissipation in landfast ice: comparison of observations against models
The influence of snow on sea ice as assessed from simulations of CESM2
Meltwater sources and sinks for multiyear Arctic sea ice in summer
An X-ray micro-tomographic study of the pore space, permeability and percolation threshold of young sea ice
Calibration of sea ice drift forecasts using random forest algorithms
Multiscale variations in Arctic sea ice motion and links to atmospheric and oceanic conditions
The flexural strength of bonded ice
Interannual variability in Transpolar Drift summer sea ice thickness and potential impact of Atlantification
Refining the sea surface identification approach for determining freeboards in the ICESat-2 sea ice products
Surface-based Ku- and Ka-band polarimetric radar for sea ice studies
Statistical predictability of the Arctic sea ice volume anomaly: identifying predictors and optimal sampling locations
Satellite-based sea ice thickness changes in the Laptev Sea from 2002 to 2017: comparison to mooring observations
Modeling the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice extent
Changes of the Arctic marginal ice zone during the satellite era
An enhancement to sea ice motion and age products at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
Accuracy and inter-analyst agreement of visually estimated sea ice concentrations in Canadian Ice Service ice charts using single-polarization RADARSAT-2
Prediction of monthly Arctic sea ice concentrations using satellite and reanalysis data based on convolutional neural networks
Variability scaling and consistency in airborne and satellite altimetry measurements of Arctic sea ice
Sea ice volume variability and water temperature in the Greenland Sea
Sea ice export through the Fram Strait derived from a combined model and satellite data set
Estimating early-winter Antarctic sea ice thickness from deformed ice morphology
On the multi-fractal scaling properties of sea ice deformation
Brief communication: Pancake ice floe size distribution during the winter expansion of the Antarctic marginal ice zone
What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing
Interannual sea ice thickness variability in the Bay of Bothnia
Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness
Ellen M. Buckley, Leela Cañuelas, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Monica M. Wilhelmus
The Cryosphere, 18, 5031–5043, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5031-2024, 2024
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Arctic sea ice cover evolves seasonally from large plates separated by long, linear leads in the winter to a mosaic of smaller sea ice floes in the summer. Here, we present a new image segmentation algorithm applied to thousands of images and identify over 9 million individual pieces of ice. We observe the characteristics of the floes and how they evolve throughout the summer as the ice breaks up.
Shan Sun and Amy Solomon
The Cryosphere, 18, 3033–3048, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024, 2024
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The study brings to light the suitability of CICE for seasonal prediction being contingent on several factors, such as initial conditions like sea ice coverage and thickness, as well as atmospheric and oceanic conditions including oceanic currents and sea surface temperature. We show there is potential to improve seasonal forecasting by using a more reliable sea ice thickness initialization. Thus, data assimilation of sea ice thickness is highly relevant for advancing seasonal prediction skills.
Jan Åström, Fredrik Robertsen, Jari Haapala, Arttu Polojärvi, Rivo Uiboupin, and Ilja Maljutenko
The Cryosphere, 18, 2429–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2429-2024, 2024
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The HiDEM code has been developed for analyzing the fracture and fragmentation of brittle materials and has been extensively applied to glacier calving. Here, we report on the adaptation of the code to sea-ice dynamics and breakup. The code demonstrates the capability to simulate sea-ice dynamics on a 100 km scale with an unprecedented resolution. We argue that codes of this type may become useful for improving forecasts of sea-ice dynamics.
Sergio Testón-Martínez, Laura M. Barge, Jan Eichler, C. Ignacio Sainz-Díaz, and Julyan H. E. Cartwright
The Cryosphere, 18, 2195–2205, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2195-2024, 2024
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Brinicles are tubular ice structures that grow under the sea ice in cold regions. This happens because the salty water going downwards from the sea ice is colder than the seawater. We have successfully recreated an analogue of these structures in our laboratory. Three methods were used, producing different results. In this paper, we explain how to use these methods and study the behaviour of the brinicles created when changing the flow of water and study the importance for natural brinicles.
Jamie L. Ward and Neil F. Tandon
The Cryosphere, 18, 995–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-995-2024, 2024
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Over the long term, the speed at which sea ice in the Arctic moves has been increasing during all seasons. However, nearly all climate models project that sea ice motion will decrease during summer. This study aims to understand the mechanisms responsible for these projected decreases in summertime sea ice motion. We find that models produce changes in winds and ocean surface tilt which cause the sea ice to slow down, and it is realistic to expect such changes to also occur in the real world.
Linghan Li, Forest Cannon, Matthew R. Mazloff, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Anna M. Wilson, and Fred Martin Ralph
The Cryosphere, 18, 121–137, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-121-2024, 2024
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We investigate how the moisture transport through atmospheric rivers influences Arctic sea ice variations using hourly atmospheric ERA5 for 1981–2020 at 0.25° × 0.25° resolution. We show that individual atmospheric rivers initiate rapid sea ice decrease through surface heat flux and winds. We find that the rate of change in sea ice concentration has significant anticorrelation with moisture, northward wind and turbulent heat flux on weather timescales almost everywhere in the Arctic Ocean.
Fanyi Zhang, Ruibo Lei, Mengxi Zhai, Xiaoping Pang, and Na Li
The Cryosphere, 17, 4609–4628, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4609-2023, 2023
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Atmospheric circulation anomalies lead to high Arctic sea ice outflow in winter 2020, causing heavy ice conditions in the Barents–Greenland seas, subsequently impeding the sea surface temperature warming. This suggests that the winter–spring Arctic sea ice outflow can be considered a predictor of changes in sea ice and other marine environmental conditions in the Barents–Greenland seas, which could help to improve our understanding of the physical connections between them.
MacKenzie E. Jewell, Jennifer K. Hutchings, and Cathleen A. Geiger
The Cryosphere, 17, 3229–3250, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3229-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3229-2023, 2023
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Sea ice repeatedly fractures near a prominent Alaskan headland as winds move ice along the coast, challenging predictions of sea ice drift. We find winds from high-pressure systems drive these fracturing events, and the Alaskan coastal boundary modifies the resultant ice drift. This observational study shows how wind patterns influence sea ice motion near coasts in winter. Identified relations between winds, ice drift, and fracturing provide effective test cases for dynamic sea ice models.
Katarzyna Bradtke and Agnieszka Herman
The Cryosphere, 17, 2073–2094, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2073-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2073-2023, 2023
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The frazil streaks are one of the visible signs of complex interactions between the mixed-layer dynamics and the forming sea ice. Using high-resolution visible satellite imagery we characterize their spatial properties, relationship with the meteorological forcing, and role in modifying wind-wave growth in the Terra Nova Bay Polynya. We provide a simple statistical tool for estimating the extent and ice coverage of the region of high ice production under given wind speed and air temperature.
Heather Regan, Pierre Rampal, Einar Ólason, Guillaume Boutin, and Anton Korosov
The Cryosphere, 17, 1873–1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1873-2023, 2023
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Multiyear ice (MYI), sea ice that survives the summer, is more resistant to changes than younger ice in the Arctic, so it is a good indicator of sea ice resilience. We use a model with a new way of tracking MYI to assess the contribution of different processes affecting MYI. We find two important years for MYI decline: 2007, when dynamics are important, and 2012, when melt is important. These affect MYI volume and area in different ways, which is important for the interpretation of observations.
Nikolas O. Aksamit, Randall K. Scharien, Jennifer K. Hutchings, and Jennifer V. Lukovich
The Cryosphere, 17, 1545–1566, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1545-2023, 2023
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Coherent flow patterns in sea ice have a significant influence on sea ice fracture and refreezing. We can better understand the state of sea ice, and its influence on the atmosphere and ocean, if we understand these structures. By adapting recent developments in chaotic dynamical systems, we are able to approximate ice stretching surrounding individual ice buoys. This illuminates the state of sea ice at much higher resolution and allows us to see previously invisible ice deformation patterns.
Robert Ricker, Steven Fons, Arttu Jutila, Nils Hutter, Kyle Duncan, Sinead L. Farrell, Nathan T. Kurtz, and Renée Mie Fredensborg Hansen
The Cryosphere, 17, 1411–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1411-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1411-2023, 2023
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Information on sea ice surface topography is important for studies of sea ice as well as for ship navigation through ice. The ICESat-2 satellite senses the sea ice surface with six laser beams. To examine the accuracy of these measurements, we carried out a temporally coincident helicopter flight along the same ground track as the satellite and measured the sea ice surface topography with a laser scanner. This showed that ICESat-2 can see even bumps of only few meters in the sea ice cover.
Ludovic Moreau, Léonard Seydoux, Jérôme Weiss, and Michel Campillo
The Cryosphere, 17, 1327–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1327-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1327-2023, 2023
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In the perspective of an upcoming seasonally ice-free Arctic, understanding the dynamics of sea ice in the changing climate is a major challenge in oceanography and climatology. It is therefore essential to monitor sea ice properties with fine temporal and spatial resolution. In this paper, we show that icequakes recorded on sea ice can be processed with artificial intelligence to produce accurate maps of sea ice thickness with high temporal and spatial resolutions.
Sasan Tavakoli and Alexander V. Babanin
The Cryosphere, 17, 939–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-939-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-939-2023, 2023
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We have tried to develop some new wave–ice interaction models by considering two different types of forces, one of which emerges in the ice and the other of which emerges in the water. We have checked the ability of the models in the reconstruction of wave–ice interaction in a step-wise manner. The accuracy level of the models is acceptable, and it will be interesting to check whether they can be used in wave climate models or not.
Christian Melsheimer, Gunnar Spreen, Yufang Ye, and Mohammed Shokr
The Cryosphere, 17, 105–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-105-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-105-2023, 2023
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It is necessary to know the type of Antarctic sea ice present – first-year ice (grown in one season) or multiyear ice (survived one summer melt) – to understand and model its evolution, as the ice types behave and react differently. We have adapted and extended an existing method (originally for the Arctic), and now, for the first time, daily maps of Antarctic sea ice types can be derived from microwave satellite data. This will allow a new data set from 2002 well into the future to be built.
Nazanin Asadi, Philippe Lamontagne, Matthew King, Martin Richard, and K. Andrea Scott
The Cryosphere, 16, 3753–3773, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3753-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3753-2022, 2022
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Machine learning approaches are deployed to provide accurate daily spatial maps of sea ice presence probability based on ERA5 data as input. Predictions are capable of predicting freeze-up/breakup dates within a 7 d period at specific locations of interest to shipping operators and communities. Forecasts of the proposed method during the breakup season have skills comparing to Climate Normal and sea ice concentration forecasts from a leading subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting system.
Simon Felix Reifenberg and Helge Friedrich Goessling
The Cryosphere, 16, 2927–2946, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2927-2022, 2022
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Using model simulations, we analyze the impact of chaotic error growth on Arctic sea ice drift predictions. Regarding forecast uncertainty, our results suggest that it matters in which season and where ice drift forecasts are initialized and that both factors vary with the model in use. We find ice velocities to be slightly more predictable than near-surface wind, a main driver of ice drift. This is relevant for future developments of ice drift forecasting systems.
Agathe Serripierri, Ludovic Moreau, Pierre Boue, Jérôme Weiss, and Philippe Roux
The Cryosphere, 16, 2527–2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2527-2022, 2022
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As a result of global warming, the sea ice is disappearing at a much faster rate than predicted by climate models. To better understand and predict its ongoing decline, we deployed 247 geophones on the fast ice in Van Mijen Fjord in Svalbard, Norway, in March 2019. The analysis of these data provided a precise daily evolution of the sea-ice parameters at this location with high spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy. The results obtained are consistent with the observations made in situ.
Laura L. Landrum and Marika M. Holland
The Cryosphere, 16, 1483–1495, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1483-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1483-2022, 2022
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High-latitude Arctic wintertime sea ice and snow insulate the relatively warmer ocean from the colder atmosphere. As the climate warms, wintertime Arctic conductive heat fluxes increase even when the sea ice concentrations remain high. Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM1-LE) show how sea ice and snow thicknesses, as well as the distribution of these thicknesses, significantly impact large-scale calculations of wintertime surface heat budgets in the Arctic.
Yunhe Wang, Xiaojun Yuan, Haibo Bi, Mitchell Bushuk, Yu Liang, Cuihua Li, and Haijun Huang
The Cryosphere, 16, 1141–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1141-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1141-2022, 2022
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We develop a regional linear Markov model consisting of four modules with seasonally dependent variables in the Pacific sector. The model retains skill for detrended sea ice extent predictions for up to 7-month lead times in the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. The prediction skill, as measured by the percentage of grid points with significant correlations (PGS), increased by 75 % in the Bering Sea and 16 % in the Sea of Okhotsk relative to the earlier pan-Arctic model.
Charles Brunette, L. Bruno Tremblay, and Robert Newton
The Cryosphere, 16, 533–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-533-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-533-2022, 2022
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Sea ice motion is a versatile parameter for monitoring the Arctic climate system. In this contribution, we use data from drifting buoys, winds, and ice thickness to parameterize the motion of sea ice in a free drift regime – i.e., flowing freely in response to the forcing from the winds and ocean currents. We show that including a dependence on sea ice thickness and taking into account a climatology of the surface ocean circulation significantly improves the accuracy of sea ice motion estimates.
Madison M. Smith, Marika Holland, and Bonnie Light
The Cryosphere, 16, 419–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-419-2022, 2022
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Climate models represent the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land with equations of varying complexity and are important tools for understanding changes in global climate. Here, we explore how realistic variations in the equations describing how sea ice melt occurs at the edges (called lateral melting) impact ice and climate. We find that these changes impact the progression of the sea-ice–albedo feedback in the Arctic and so make significant changes to the predicted Arctic sea ice.
Arttu Jutila, Stefan Hendricks, Robert Ricker, Luisa von Albedyll, Thomas Krumpen, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 16, 259–275, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-259-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-259-2022, 2022
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Sea-ice thickness retrieval from satellite altimeters relies on assumed sea-ice density values because density cannot be measured from space. We derived bulk densities for different ice types using airborne laser, radar, and electromagnetic induction sounding measurements. Compared to previous studies, we found high bulk density values due to ice deformation and younger ice cover. Using sea-ice freeboard, we derived a sea-ice bulk density parameterisation that can be applied to satellite data.
Mathieu Plante and L. Bruno Tremblay
The Cryosphere, 15, 5623–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5623-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5623-2021, 2021
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We propose a generalized form for the damage parameterization such that super-critical stresses can return to the yield with different final sub-critical stress states. In uniaxial compression simulations, the generalization improves the orientation of sea ice fractures and reduces the growth of numerical errors. Shear and convergence deformations however remain predominant along the fractures, contrary to observations, and this calls for modification of the post-fracture viscosity formulation.
Joey J. Voermans, Qingxiang Liu, Aleksey Marchenko, Jean Rabault, Kirill Filchuk, Ivan Ryzhov, Petra Heil, Takuji Waseda, Takehiko Nose, Tsubasa Kodaira, Jingkai Li, and Alexander V. Babanin
The Cryosphere, 15, 5557–5575, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5557-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5557-2021, 2021
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We have shown through field experiments that the amount of wave energy dissipated in landfast ice, sea ice attached to land, is much larger than in broken ice. By comparing our measurements against predictions of contemporary wave–ice interaction models, we determined which models can explain our observations and which cannot. Our results will improve our understanding of how waves and ice interact and how we can model such interactions to better forecast waves and ice in the polar regions.
Marika M. Holland, David Clemens-Sewall, Laura Landrum, Bonnie Light, Donald Perovich, Chris Polashenski, Madison Smith, and Melinda Webster
The Cryosphere, 15, 4981–4998, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4981-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4981-2021, 2021
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As the most reflective and most insulative natural material, snow has important climate effects. For snow on sea ice, its high reflectivity reduces ice melt. However, its high insulating capacity limits ice growth. These counteracting effects make its net influence on sea ice uncertain. We find that with increasing snow, sea ice in both hemispheres is thicker and more extensive. However, the drivers of this response are different in the two hemispheres due to different climate conditions.
Don Perovich, Madison Smith, Bonnie Light, and Melinda Webster
The Cryosphere, 15, 4517–4525, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4517-2021, 2021
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During summer, Arctic sea ice melts on its surface and bottom and lateral edges. Some of this fresh meltwater is stored on the ice surface in features called melt ponds. The rest flows into the ocean. The meltwater flowing into the upper ocean affects ice growth and melt, upper ocean properties, and ocean ecosystems. Using field measurements, we found that the summer meltwater was equal to an 80 cm thick layer; 85 % of this meltwater flowed into the ocean and 15 % was stored in melt ponds.
Sönke Maus, Martin Schneebeli, and Andreas Wiegmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 4047–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4047-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4047-2021, 2021
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As the hydraulic permeability of sea ice is difficult to measure, observations are sparse. The present work presents numerical simulations of the permeability of young sea ice based on a large set of 3D X-ray tomographic images. It extends the relationship between permeability and porosity available so far down to brine porosities near the percolation threshold of a few per cent. Evaluation of pore scales and 3D connectivity provides novel insight into the percolation behaviour of sea ice.
Cyril Palerme and Malte Müller
The Cryosphere, 15, 3989–4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3989-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3989-2021, 2021
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Methods have been developed for calibrating sea ice drift forecasts from an operational prediction system using machine learning algorithms. These algorithms use predictors from sea ice concentration observations during the initialization of the forecasts, sea ice and wind forecasts, and some geographical information. Depending on the calibration method, the mean absolute error is reduced between 3.3 % and 8.0 % for the direction and between 2.5 % and 7.1 % for the speed of sea ice drift.
Dongyang Fu, Bei Liu, Yali Qi, Guo Yu, Haoen Huang, and Lilian Qu
The Cryosphere, 15, 3797–3811, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3797-2021, 2021
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Our results show three main sea ice drift patterns have different multiscale variation characteristics. The oscillation period of the third sea ice transport pattern is longer than the other two, and the ocean environment has a more significant influence on it due to the different regulatory effects of the atmosphere and ocean environment on sea ice drift patterns on various scales. Our research can provide a basis for the study of Arctic sea ice dynamics parameterization in numerical models.
Andrii Murdza, Arttu Polojärvi, Erland M. Schulson, and Carl E. Renshaw
The Cryosphere, 15, 2957–2967, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2957-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2957-2021, 2021
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The strength of refrozen floes or piles of ice rubble is an important factor in assessing ice-structure interactions, as well as the integrity of an ice cover itself. The results of this paper provide unique data on the tensile strength of freeze bonds and are the first measurements to be reported. The provided information can lead to a better understanding of the behavior of refrozen ice floes and better estimates of the strength of an ice rubble pile.
H. Jakob Belter, Thomas Krumpen, Luisa von Albedyll, Tatiana A. Alekseeva, Gerit Birnbaum, Sergei V. Frolov, Stefan Hendricks, Andreas Herber, Igor Polyakov, Ian Raphael, Robert Ricker, Sergei S. Serovetnikov, Melinda Webster, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 15, 2575–2591, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2575-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2575-2021, 2021
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Summer sea ice thickness observations based on electromagnetic induction measurements north of Fram Strait show a 20 % reduction in mean and modal ice thickness from 2001–2020. The observed variability is caused by changes in drift speeds and consequential variations in sea ice age and number of freezing-degree days. Increased ocean heat fluxes measured upstream in the source regions of Arctic ice seem to precondition ice thickness, which is potentially still measurable more than a year later.
Ron Kwok, Alek A. Petty, Marco Bagnardi, Nathan T. Kurtz, Glenn F. Cunningham, Alvaro Ivanoff, and Sahra Kacimi
The Cryosphere, 15, 821–833, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-821-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-821-2021, 2021
Julienne Stroeve, Vishnu Nandan, Rosemary Willatt, Rasmus Tonboe, Stefan Hendricks, Robert Ricker, James Mead, Robbie Mallett, Marcus Huntemann, Polona Itkin, Martin Schneebeli, Daniela Krampe, Gunnar Spreen, Jeremy Wilkinson, Ilkka Matero, Mario Hoppmann, and Michel Tsamados
The Cryosphere, 14, 4405–4426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4405-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4405-2020, 2020
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This study provides a first look at the data collected by a new dual-frequency Ka- and Ku-band in situ radar over winter sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The instrument shows potential for using both bands to retrieve snow depth over sea ice, as well as sensitivity of the measurements to changing snow and atmospheric conditions.
Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Guillian Van Achter, and Thierry Fichefet
The Cryosphere, 14, 2409–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, 2020
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The continuous melting of the Arctic sea ice observed in the last decades has a significant impact at global and regional scales. To understand the amplitude and consequences of this impact, the monitoring of the total sea ice volume is crucial. However, in situ monitoring in such a harsh environment is hard to perform and far too expensive. This study shows that four well-placed sampling locations are sufficient to explain about 70 % of the inter-annual changes in the pan-Arctic sea ice volume.
H. Jakob Belter, Thomas Krumpen, Stefan Hendricks, Jens Hoelemann, Markus A. Janout, Robert Ricker, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 14, 2189–2203, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2189-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2189-2020, 2020
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The validation of satellite sea ice thickness (SIT) climate data records with newly acquired moored sonar SIT data shows that satellite products provide modal rather than mean SIT in the Laptev Sea region. This tendency of satellite-based SIT products to underestimate mean SIT needs to be considered for investigations of sea ice volume transports. Validation of satellite SIT in the first-year-ice-dominated Laptev Sea will support algorithm development for more reliable SIT records in the Arctic.
Mark S. Handcock and Marilyn N. Raphael
The Cryosphere, 14, 2159–2172, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2159-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2159-2020, 2020
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Traditional methods of calculating the annual cycle of sea ice extent disguise the variation of amplitude and timing (phase) of the advance and retreat of the ice. We present a multiscale model that explicitly allows them to vary, resulting in a much improved representation of the cycle. We show that phase is the dominant contributor to the variability in the cycle and that the anomalous decay of Antarctic sea ice in 2016 was due largely to a change of phase.
Rebecca J. Rolph, Daniel L. Feltham, and David Schröder
The Cryosphere, 14, 1971–1984, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1971-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1971-2020, 2020
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It is well known that the Arctic sea ice extent is declining, and it is often assumed that the marginal ice zone (MIZ), the area of partial sea ice cover, is consequently increasing. However, we find no trend in the MIZ extent during the last 40 years from observations that is consistent with a widening of the MIZ as it moves northward. Differences of MIZ extent between different satellite retrievals are too large to provide a robust basis to verify model simulations of MIZ extent.
Mark A. Tschudi, Walter N. Meier, and J. Scott Stewart
The Cryosphere, 14, 1519–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1519-2020, 2020
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A new version of a set of data products that contain the velocity of sea ice and the age of this ice has been developed. We provide a history of the product development and discuss the improvements to the algorithms that create these products. We find that changes in sea ice motion and age show a significant shift in the Arctic ice cover, from a pack with a high concentration of older ice to a sea ice cover dominated by younger ice, which is more susceptible to summer melt.
Angela Cheng, Barbara Casati, Adrienne Tivy, Tom Zagon, Jean-François Lemieux, and L. Bruno Tremblay
The Cryosphere, 14, 1289–1310, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1289-2020, 2020
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Sea ice charts by the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contain visually estimated ice concentration produced by analysts. The accuracy of manually derived ice concentrations is not well understood. The subsequent uncertainty of ice charts results in downstream uncertainties for ice charts users, such as models and climatology studies, and when used as a verification source for automated sea ice classifiers. This study quantifies the level of accuracy and inter-analyst agreement for ice charts by CIS.
Young Jun Kim, Hyun-Cheol Kim, Daehyeon Han, Sanggyun Lee, and Jungho Im
The Cryosphere, 14, 1083–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1083-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1083-2020, 2020
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In this study, we proposed a novel 1-month sea ice concentration (SIC) prediction model with eight predictors using a deep-learning approach, convolutional neural networks (CNNs). The proposed CNN model was evaluated and compared with the two baseline approaches, random-forest and simple-regression models, resulting in better performance. This study also examined SIC predictions for two extreme cases in 2007 and 2012 in detail and the influencing factors through a sensitivity analysis.
Shiming Xu, Lu Zhou, and Bin Wang
The Cryosphere, 14, 751–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-751-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-751-2020, 2020
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Sea ice thickness parameters are key to polar climate change studies and forecasts. Airborne and satellite measurements provide complementary observational capabilities. The study analyzes the variability in freeboard and snow depth measurements and its changes with scale in Operation IceBridge, CryoVEx, CryoSat-2 and ICESat. Consistency between airborne and satellite data is checked. Analysis calls for process-oriented attribution of variability and covariability features of these parameters.
Valeria Selyuzhenok, Igor Bashmachnikov, Robert Ricker, Anna Vesman, and Leonid Bobylev
The Cryosphere, 14, 477–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-477-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-477-2020, 2020
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This study explores a link between the long-term variations in the integral sea ice volume in the Greenland Sea and oceanic processes. We link the changes in the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) regional sea ice volume with the mixed layer, depth and upper-ocean heat content derived using the ARMOR dataset.
Chao Min, Longjiang Mu, Qinghua Yang, Robert Ricker, Qian Shi, Bo Han, Renhao Wu, and Jiping Liu
The Cryosphere, 13, 3209–3224, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3209-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3209-2019, 2019
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Sea ice volume export through the Fram Strait has been studied using varied methods, however, mostly in winter months. Here we report sea ice volume estimates that extend over summer seasons. A recent developed sea ice thickness dataset, in which CryoSat-2 and SMOS sea ice thickness together with SSMI/SSMIS sea ice concentration are assimilated, is used and evaluated in the paper. Results show our estimate is more reasonable than that calculated by satellite data only.
M. Jeffrey Mei, Ted Maksym, Blake Weissling, and Hanumant Singh
The Cryosphere, 13, 2915–2934, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2915-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2915-2019, 2019
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Sea ice thickness is hard to measure directly, and current datasets are very limited to sporadically conducted drill lines. However, surface elevation is much easier to measure. Converting surface elevation to ice thickness requires making assumptions about snow depth and density, which leads to large errors (and may not generalize to new datasets). A deep learning method is presented that uses the surface morphology as a direct predictor of sea ice thickness, with testing errors of < 20 %.
Pierre Rampal, Véronique Dansereau, Einar Olason, Sylvain Bouillon, Timothy Williams, Anton Korosov, and Abdoulaye Samaké
The Cryosphere, 13, 2457–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2457-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2457-2019, 2019
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In this article, we look at how the Arctic sea ice cover, as a solid body, behaves on different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the numerical model neXtSIM uses a new approach to simulate the mechanics of sea ice and reproduce the characteristics of how sea ice deforms, as observed by satellite. We discuss the importance of this model performance in the context of simulating climate processes taking place in polar regions, like the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere.
Alberto Alberello, Miguel Onorato, Luke Bennetts, Marcello Vichi, Clare Eayrs, Keith MacHutchon, and Alessandro Toffoli
The Cryosphere, 13, 41–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-41-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-41-2019, 2019
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Existing observations do not provide quantitative descriptions of the floe size distribution for pancake ice floes. This is important during the Antarctic winter sea ice expansion, when hundreds of kilometres of ice cover around the Antarctic continent are composed of pancake floes (D = 0.3–3 m). Here, a new set of images from the Antarctic marginal ice zone is used to measure the shape of individual pancakes for the first time and to infer their size distribution.
Frédéric Laliberté, Stephen E. L. Howell, Jean-François Lemieux, Frédéric Dupont, and Ji Lei
The Cryosphere, 12, 3577–3588, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3577-2018, 2018
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Ice that forms over marginal seas often gets anchored and becomes landfast. Landfast ice is fundamental to the local ecosystems, is of economic importance as it leads to hazardous seafaring conditions and is also a choice hunting ground for both the local population and large predators. Using observations and climate simulations, this study shows that, especially in the Canadian Arctic, landfast ice might be more resilient to climate change than is generally thought.
Iina Ronkainen, Jonni Lehtiranta, Mikko Lensu, Eero Rinne, Jari Haapala, and Christian Haas
The Cryosphere, 12, 3459–3476, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3459-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3459-2018, 2018
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We quantify the sea ice thickness variability in the Bay of Bothnia using various observational data sets. For the first time we use helicopter and shipborne electromagnetic soundings to study changes in drift ice of the Bay of Bothnia. Our results show that the interannual variability of ice thickness is larger in the drift ice zone than in the fast ice zone. Furthermore, the mean thickness of heavily ridged ice near the coast can be several times larger than that of fast ice.
Edward W. Blockley and K. Andrew Peterson
The Cryosphere, 12, 3419–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018, 2018
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Arctic sea-ice prediction on seasonal time scales is becoming increasingly more relevant to society but the predictive capability of forecasting systems is low. Several studies suggest initialization of sea-ice thickness (SIT) could improve the skill of seasonal prediction systems. Here for the first time we test the impact of SIT initialization in the Met Office's GloSea coupled prediction system using CryoSat-2 data. We show significant improvements to Arctic extent and ice edge location.
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Short summary
We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in a number of the latest climate models. New output has been defined that allows us to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. We find that that the models are strikingly similar in terms of the major processes causing the annual growth and loss of Arctic sea ice and that the budget terms respond in a broadly consistent way as the climate warms during the 21st century.
We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in a number of the latest climate models. New...
