Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-633-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Feb 2021
Research article |
| 10 Feb 2021
| 10 Feb 2021
ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Gunter R. Leguy
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Nicolas C. Jourdain
Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
Xylar Asay-Davis
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Hélène Seroussi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Sophie Nowicki
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
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Cited
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Calculations of extreme sea level rise scenarios are strongly dependent on ice sheet model resolution C. Williams et al.
- Antarctic tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate J. Blasco et al.
- Compensating errors in inversions for subglacial bed roughness: same steady state, different dynamic response C. Berends et al.
- Damage development on Antarctic ice shelves sensitive to climate warming M. Izeboud et al.
- Assessing ice sheet models against the landform record: The Likelihood of Accordant Lineations Analysis (LALA) tool R. Archer et al.
- A Semi-Empirical Framework for ice sheet response analysis under Oceanic forcing in Antarctica and Greenland X. Luo & T. Lin
- Seafloor roughness reduces melting of East Antarctic ice shelves Y. Liu et al.
- Antarctic climate response in Last Interglacial simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) M. Berdahl et al.
- A comparison of the stability and performance of depth-integrated ice-dynamics solvers A. Robinson et al.
- Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method R. Greve et al.
- The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements G. Futerman et al.
- Modelling landfast sea ice and its influence on ocean–ice interactions in the area of the Totten Glacier, East Antarctica G. Van Achter et al.
- Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations A. Juarez-Martinez et al.
- Evaluating different geothermal heat-flow maps as basal boundary conditions during spin-up of the Greenland ice sheet T. Zhang et al.
- Snapshot and time-dependent inversions of basal sliding using automatic generation of adjoint code on graphics processing units I. Utkin et al.
- Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) M. Berdahl et al.
- Interactive coupling of a Greenland ice sheet model in NorESM2 H. Goelzer et al.
- Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties M. Berdahl et al.
- Sea ice-free corridors for large swell to reach Antarctic ice shelves N. Teder et al.
- Two-way coupling between ice flow and channelized subglacial drainage enhances modeled marine-ice-sheet retreat G. Lu & J. Kingslake
- Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) F. Baldacchino et al.
- Bedrock uplift reduces Antarctic sea-level contribution over next centuries C. van Calcar et al.
- A framework for three-dimensional dynamic modeling of mountain glaciers in the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM v2.2) S. Minallah et al.
- Competing processes determine the long-term impact of basal friction parameterizations for Antarctic mass loss T. van den Akker et al.
- Quantifying temperature-sliding inconsistency in thermomechanical coupling: a comparative analysis of geothermal heat flux datasets at Totten Glacier J. Wang et al.
- The achievability of low-emission IPCC sea-level rise scenarios H. Millman et al.
- An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves C. Burgard et al.
- ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model J. O'Neill et al.
- Uncertain ground: impact of bed topography on Antarctic Ice Sheet projections J. Caillet et al.
- Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate C. Chambers et al.
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al.
- Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty H. Seroussi et al.
- Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al.
- Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model G. Leguy et al.
- West Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics in the Amundsen Sea Sector since the Late Miocene—Tying IODP Expedition 379 Results to Seismic Data J. Gille-Petzoldt et al.
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Calculations of extreme sea level rise scenarios are strongly dependent on ice sheet model resolution C. Williams et al.
- Antarctic tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate J. Blasco et al.
- Compensating errors in inversions for subglacial bed roughness: same steady state, different dynamic response C. Berends et al.
- Damage development on Antarctic ice shelves sensitive to climate warming M. Izeboud et al.
- Assessing ice sheet models against the landform record: The Likelihood of Accordant Lineations Analysis (LALA) tool R. Archer et al.
- A Semi-Empirical Framework for ice sheet response analysis under Oceanic forcing in Antarctica and Greenland X. Luo & T. Lin
- Seafloor roughness reduces melting of East Antarctic ice shelves Y. Liu et al.
- Antarctic climate response in Last Interglacial simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) M. Berdahl et al.
- A comparison of the stability and performance of depth-integrated ice-dynamics solvers A. Robinson et al.
- Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method R. Greve et al.
- The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements G. Futerman et al.
- Modelling landfast sea ice and its influence on ocean–ice interactions in the area of the Totten Glacier, East Antarctica G. Van Achter et al.
- Antarctic sensitivity to oceanic melting parameterizations A. Juarez-Martinez et al.
- Evaluating different geothermal heat-flow maps as basal boundary conditions during spin-up of the Greenland ice sheet T. Zhang et al.
- Snapshot and time-dependent inversions of basal sliding using automatic generation of adjoint code on graphics processing units I. Utkin et al.
- Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) M. Berdahl et al.
- Interactive coupling of a Greenland ice sheet model in NorESM2 H. Goelzer et al.
- Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties M. Berdahl et al.
- Sea ice-free corridors for large swell to reach Antarctic ice shelves N. Teder et al.
- Two-way coupling between ice flow and channelized subglacial drainage enhances modeled marine-ice-sheet retreat G. Lu & J. Kingslake
- Modelling GNSS-observed seasonal velocity changes of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) F. Baldacchino et al.
- Bedrock uplift reduces Antarctic sea-level contribution over next centuries C. van Calcar et al.
- A framework for three-dimensional dynamic modeling of mountain glaciers in the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM v2.2) S. Minallah et al.
- Competing processes determine the long-term impact of basal friction parameterizations for Antarctic mass loss T. van den Akker et al.
- Quantifying temperature-sliding inconsistency in thermomechanical coupling: a comparative analysis of geothermal heat flux datasets at Totten Glacier J. Wang et al.
- The achievability of low-emission IPCC sea-level rise scenarios H. Millman et al.
- An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves C. Burgard et al.
- ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model J. O'Neill et al.
- Uncertain ground: impact of bed topography on Antarctic Ice Sheet projections J. Caillet et al.
- Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate C. Chambers et al.
- The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al.
- Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty H. Seroussi et al.
- Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse T. van den Akker et al.
- Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model G. Leguy et al.
- West Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics in the Amundsen Sea Sector since the Late Miocene—Tying IODP Expedition 379 Results to Seismic Data J. Gille-Petzoldt et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 May 2026
Short summary
This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model is forced with ocean warming predicted by global climate models. Generally, ice loss begins slowly, accelerates by 2100, and then continues unabated, with widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mass loss by 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm of equivalent sea level rise, based on the predicted ocean warming and assumptions about how this warming drives melting beneath ice shelves.
This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model...
