Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
The Cryosphere, 15, 633–661, 2021
The Cryosphere, 15, 633–661, 2021

Research article 10 Feb 2021

Research article | 10 Feb 2021

ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model

William H. Lipscomb et al.

Data sets

CISM_ISMIP6_Antarctic_projection_2020 G. R. Leguy and W. H. Lipscomb

Model code and software

ESCOMP/CISM: CISM-ISMIP6 Antarctic projection 2020 (Version release-cism2.1.1) W. H. Lipscomb, G. R. Leguy, S. F. Price, M. J. Hoffman, E. Barker, T. Bocek, J. Campbell, J. Dukowicz, K. J. Evans, J. G. Fyke, H. Goelzer, G. Granzow, M. Hagdorn, B. Hand, F. Hebeler, J. V. Johnson, J. H. Kennedy, E. Kluzek, J.-F. Lemieux, D. F. Martin, J. A. Nichols, R. Nong, M. R. Norman, A. J. Payne, D. M. Ranken, I. Rutt, W. J. Sacks, A. G. Salinger, I. K. Tezaur, K. Thayer-Calder, J. B. White III, J. Wolfe, P. H. Worley, and T. Wylie

Short summary
This paper describes Antarctic climate change experiments in which the Community Ice Sheet Model is forced with ocean warming predicted by global climate models. Generally, ice loss begins slowly, accelerates by 2100, and then continues unabated, with widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The mass loss by 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm of equivalent sea level rise, based on the predicted ocean warming and assumptions about how this warming drives melting beneath ice shelves.