Articles | Volume 15, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5099-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Nov 2021
Research article |
| 09 Nov 2021
| 09 Nov 2021
The contribution of melt ponds to enhanced Arctic sea-ice melt during the Last Interglacial
Rachel Diamond
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ice Dynamics and Palaeoclimate Team, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK
Louise C. Sime
Ice Dynamics and Palaeoclimate Team, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
David Schroeder
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Maria-Vittoria Guarino
Ice Dynamics and Palaeoclimate Team, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Related authors
No articles found.
Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Christian Stepanek, Chris Brierley, David Schroeder, Masa Kageyama, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ed Blockley, Alex West, Danny Feltham, Jeff Ridley, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, Xiaoxu Shi, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Sophia I. Macarewich, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Qiong Zhang, Allegra LeGrande, Weipeng Zheng, Dabang Jiang, Polina Morozova, Chuncheng Guo, Zhongshi Zhang, Nicholas Yeung, Laurie Menviel, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Olivia Reeves, Matthew Pollock, and Anni Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3531, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic may have lost its summer sea ice 127,000 years ago during a naturally warm period in Earth’s past. Climate models can be tested by recreating those conditions, with similar sunlight and greenhouse gas levels. Analysing the large sea ice changes in these simulations helps us understand how the Arctic might respond in the near future and improves how we test and trust our climate models.
Zanna Chase, Karen E. Kohfeld, Amy Leventer, David Lund, Xavier Crosta, Laurie Menviel, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Samuel L. Jaccard, Jacob Jones, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Elisabeth Sikes, Louise C. Sime, and Luke Skinner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3504, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of recent dramatic declines in Antarctic sea ice on the Earth system are uncertain. We reviewed how sea ice affects ocean circulation, ice sheets, winds, and the carbon cycle by considering theory and modern observations alongside paleo-proxy reconstructions. We found evidence for connections between sea ice and these systems but also conflicting results, which point to missing knowledge. Our work highlights the complex role of sea ice in the Earth system.
Rebecca C. Frew, Adam William Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, and David Schröder
The Cryosphere, 19, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2115-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As summer Arctic sea ice extent has retreated, the marginal ice zone (MIZ) has been widening and making up an increasing percentage of the summer sea ice. The MIZ is projected to become a larger percentage of the summer ice cover, as the Arctic transitions to ice-free summers. Using a sea ice model, we find that the processes and timing of sea ice loss differ in the MIZ to the rest of the sea cover. We also find the balance of processes within the MIZ changes over time as the sea ice retreats.
Alison J. McLaren, Louise C. Sime, Simon Wilson, Jeff Ridley, Qinggang Gao, Merve Gorguner, Giorgia Line, Martin Werner, and Paul Valdes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3824, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We describe a new development in a state-of-the-art computer atmosphere model, which follows the movement of the model’s water. This provides an efficient way to track all the model’s rain and snow back to the average location of the evaporative source as shown in a present-day simulation. The new scheme can be used in simulations of the future to predict how the sources of regional rain or snowfall may change due to human actions, providing useful information for water management purposes.
Qinggang Gao, Emilie Capron, Louise C. Sime, Rachael H. Rhodes, Rahul Sivankutty, Xu Zhang, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 21, 419–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-419-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Marine sediment and ice core records suggest a warmer Southern Ocean and Antarctica at the early last interglacial, ~127 000 years ago. However, when only forced by orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations during that period, state-of-the-art climate models do not reproduce the magnitude of warming. Here we show that much of the warming at southern middle to high latitudes can be reproduced by a UK climate model, HadCM3, with a 3000-year freshwater forcing over the North Atlantic.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Sentia Goursaud Oger, Allegra N. LeGrande, Erin L. McClymont, Agatha de Boer, Alexandre Cauquoin, and Martin Werner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-288, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used climate models to study how stable water isotopes in ice cores changed in the Arctic and Antarctica during the warm Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Whilst standard simulations underestimate polar warming, when the effects of ice sheet meltwater from the preceding deglaciation are included, there is a much better match with observations. Findings suggest that previous estimates of LIG Arctic warming were too high. Understanding these past polar changes can help improve future predictions.
Alex T. Archibald, Bablu Sinha, Maria R. Russo, Emily Matthews, Freya A. Squires, N. Luke Abraham, Stephane J.-B. Bauguitte, Thomas J. Bannan, Thomas G. Bell, David Berry, Lucy J. Carpenter, Hugh Coe, Andrew Coward, Peter Edwards, Daniel Feltham, Dwayne Heard, Jim Hopkins, James Keeble, Elizabeth C. Kent, Brian A. King, Isobel R. Lawrence, James Lee, Claire R. Macintosh, Alex Megann, Bengamin I. Moat, Katie Read, Chris Reed, Malcolm J. Roberts, Reinhard Schiemann, David Schroeder, Timothy J. Smyth, Loren Temple, Navaneeth Thamban, Lisa Whalley, Simon Williams, Huihui Wu, and Mingxi Yang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 135–164, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-135-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-135-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we present an overview of the data generated as part of the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) programme that are available through dedicated repositories at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA; www.ceda.ac.uk) and the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC; bodc.ac.uk). The datasets described here cover the North Atlantic Ocean, the atmosphere above (it including its composition), and Arctic sea ice.
Sentia Goursaud Oger, Louise C. Sime, and Max Holloway
Clim. Past, 20, 2539–2560, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic ice cores provide information about past temperatures. Here, we run new climate model simulations, including stable water isotopes for the historical period. Across one-third of Antarctica, there is no strong connection between isotopes and temperature and a weak connection for most of the rest of Antarctica. This disconnect between isotopes and temperature is largely driven by changes in Antarctic sea ice. Our results are helpful for temperature reconstructions from ice core records.
John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Clim. Past, 20, 2431–2454, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a series of abrupt past climate change events during which the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the North Atlantic underwent rapid changes. One current topic of interest is the order in which these different changes occurred, which remains unknown. In this work, we find that the current best method used to investigate this topic is subject to substantial bias. This implies that it is not possible to reliably determine the order of the different changes.
Ed Blockley, Emma Fiedler, Jeff Ridley, Luke Roberts, Alex West, Dan Copsey, Daniel Feltham, Tim Graham, David Livings, Clement Rousset, David Schroeder, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6799–6817, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6799-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper documents the sea ice model component of the latest Met Office coupled model configuration, which will be used as the physical basis for UK contributions to CMIP7. Documentation of science options used in the configuration are given along with a brief model evaluation. This is the first UK configuration to use NEMO’s new SI3 sea ice model. We provide details on how SI3 was adapted to work with Met Office coupling methodology and documentation of coupling processes in the model.
Qinggang Gao, Louise C. Sime, Alison J. McLaren, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Emilie Capron, Rachael H. Rhodes, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Xiaoxu Shi, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 18, 683–703, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctic precipitation is a crucial component of the climate system. Its spatio-temporal variability impacts sea level changes and the interpretation of water isotope measurements in ice cores. To better understand its climatic drivers, we developed water tracers in an atmospheric model to identify moisture source conditions from which precipitation originates. We find that mid-latitude surface winds exert an important control on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation.
Nicholas Williams, Nicholas Byrne, Daniel Feltham, Peter Jan Van Leeuwen, Ross Bannister, David Schroeder, Andrew Ridout, and Lars Nerger
The Cryosphere, 17, 2509–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover has reduced over the last 40 years. This study uses ensemble-based data assimilation in a stand-alone sea ice model to investigate the impacts of assimilating three different kinds of sea ice observation, including the novel assimilation of sea ice thickness distribution. We show that assimilating ice thickness distribution has a positive impact on thickness and volume estimates within the ice pack, especially for very thick ice.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Clim. Past, 19, 915–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice core records feature Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events, abrupt warming episodes followed by a gradual-cooling phase during mid-glacial periods. There is uncertainty whether current climate models can effectively represent the processes that cause D–O events. Here, we propose a Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS3) baseline protocol which is intended to provide modelling groups investigating D–O oscillations with a common framework.
Louise C. Sime, Rahul Sivankutty, Irene Vallet-Malmierca, Agatha M. de Boer, and Marie Sicard
Clim. Past, 19, 883–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-883-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
It is not known if the Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced Arctic summers that were sea ice free: models show a wide spread in LIG Arctic temperature and sea ice results. Evaluation against sea ice markers is hampered by few observations. Here, an assessment of 11 climate model simulations against summer temperatures shows that the most skilful models have a 74 %–79 % reduction in LIG sea ice. The measurements of LIG areas indicate a likely mix of ice-free and near-ice-free LIG summers.
Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Clim. Past, 19, 865–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the response of the atmosphere, ocean, and ice domains to the release of a large volume of glacial meltwaters thought to have occurred during the Last Interglacial period. We show that the signal that originated in the North Atlantic travels over great distances across the globe. It modifies the ocean gyre circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as the belt of westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for Antarctic sea ice.
Xavier Crosta, Karen E. Kohfeld, Helen C. Bostock, Matthew Chadwick, Alice Du Vivier, Oliver Esper, Johan Etourneau, Jacob Jones, Amy Leventer, Juliane Müller, Rachael H. Rhodes, Claire S. Allen, Pooja Ghadi, Nele Lamping, Carina B. Lange, Kelly-Anne Lawler, David Lund, Alice Marzocchi, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Abhilash Nair, Molly Patterson, Jennifer Pike, Joseph G. Prebble, Christina Riesselman, Henrik Sadatzki, Louise C. Sime, Sunil K. Shukla, Lena Thöle, Maria-Elena Vorrath, Wenshen Xiao, and Jiao Yang
Clim. Past, 18, 1729–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1729-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite its importance in the global climate, our knowledge of Antarctic sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle is extremely limited. As part of the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) Working Group, we review marine- and ice-core-based sea-ice proxies to provide insights into their applicability and limitations. By compiling published records, we provide information on Antarctic sea-ice dynamics over the past 130 000 years.
Adam William Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schröder, Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Jeff K. Ridley, and Yevgeny Aksenov
The Cryosphere, 16, 2565–2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are used to understand the mechanisms that drive the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover. The sea ice cover is formed of pieces of ice called floes. Several recent studies have proposed variable floe size models to replace the standard model assumption of a fixed floe size. In this study we show the need to include floe fragmentation processes in these variable floe size models and demonstrate that model design can determine the impact of floe size on size ice evolution.
Erin L. McClymont, Michael J. Bentley, Dominic A. Hodgson, Charlotte L. Spencer-Jones, Thomas Wardley, Martin D. West, Ian W. Croudace, Sonja Berg, Darren R. Gröcke, Gerhard Kuhn, Stewart S. R. Jamieson, Louise Sime, and Richard A. Phillips
Clim. Past, 18, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice is important for our climate system and for the unique ecosystems it supports. We present a novel way to understand past Antarctic sea-ice ecosystems: using the regurgitated stomach contents of snow petrels, which nest above the ice sheet but feed in the sea ice. During a time when sea ice was more extensive than today (24 000–30 000 years ago), we show that snow petrel diet had varying contributions of fish and krill, which we interpret to show changing sea-ice distribution.
Matthew Chadwick, Claire S. Allen, Louise C. Sime, Xavier Crosta, and Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand
Clim. Past, 18, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-129-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Algae preserved in marine sediments have allowed us to reconstruct how much winter sea ice was present around Antarctica during a past time period (130 000 years ago) when the climate was warmer than today. The patterns of sea-ice increase and decrease vary between different parts of the Southern Ocean. The Pacific sector has a largely stable sea-ice extent, whereas the amount of sea ice in the Atlantic sector is much more variable with bigger decreases and increases than other regions.
Janica C. Bühler, Carla Roesch, Moritz Kirschner, Louise Sime, Max D. Holloway, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 17, 985–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present three new isotope-enabled simulations for the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to records from a global speleothem database. Offsets between the simulated and measured oxygen isotope ratios are fairly small. While modeled oxygen isotope ratios are more variable on decadal timescales, proxy records are more variable on (multi-)centennial timescales. This could be due to a lack of long-term variability in complex model simulations, but proxy biases cannot be excluded.
Ann Keen, Ed Blockley, David A. Bailey, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Mitchell Bushuk, Steve Delhaye, David Docquier, Daniel Feltham, François Massonnet, Siobhan O'Farrell, Leandro Ponsoni, José M. Rodriguez, David Schroeder, Neil Swart, Takahiro Toyoda, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Klaus Wyser
The Cryosphere, 15, 951–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in a number of the latest climate models. New output has been defined that allows us to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. We find that that the models are strikingly similar in terms of the major processes causing the annual growth and loss of Arctic sea ice and that the budget terms respond in a broadly consistent way as the climate warms during the 21st century.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Anni Zhao, Chris M. Brierley, Yarrow Axford, Emilie Capron, Aline Govin, Jeremy S. Hoffman, Elizabeth Isaacs, Masa Kageyama, Paolo Scussolini, Polychronis C. Tzedakis, Charles J. R. Williams, Eric Wolff, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Pascale Braconnot, Silvana Ramos Buarque, Jian Cao, Anne de Vernal, Maria Vittoria Guarino, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina A. Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ryouta O'ishi, David Salas y Mélia, Xiaoxu Shi, Marie Sicard, Louise Sime, Christian Stepanek, Robert Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6–PMIP4 Tier 1 lig127k experiment was designed to address the climate responses to strong orbital forcing. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, most of which have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments and are thus important for assessing future projections. The lig127ksimulations show strong summer warming over the NH continents. More than half of the models simulate a retreat of the Arctic minimum summer ice edge similar to the average for 2000–2018.
Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, Paul J. Valdes, and Julia C. Tindall
Clim. Past, 16, 2485–2508, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2485-2020, 2020
Cited articles
Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., and Smedsrud, L. H.: The role of Atlantic heat
transport in future Arctic winter sea ice loss, J. Climate, 32,
3327–3341, 2019. a
Auclair, G. and Tremblay, L. B.: The role of ocean heat transport in rapid sea
ice declines in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, J.
Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 123, 8941–8957, 2018. a
Berger, A. and Loutre, M.-F.: Insolation values for the climate of the last 10
million years, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 10, 297–317, 1991. a
Bitz, C. M. and Lipscomb, W. H.: An energy-conserving thermodynamic model of
sea ice, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 104, 15669–15677,
1999. a
CAPE members: Last Interglacial Arctic warmth confirms polar amplification of
climate change, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 25, 1383–1400, 2006. a
Collins, W. D., Bitz, C. M., Blackmon, M. L., Bonan, G. B., Bretherton, C. S., Carton, J. A., Chang, P., Doney, S. C., Hack, J. J., Henderson, T. B., Kiehl, J. T., Large, W. G., McKenna, D. S., Santer, B. D., and Smith, R. D.: The community climate system model version 3 (CCSM3), J. Climate, 19, 2122–2143, 2006. a, b, c, d
Curry, J. A., Schramm, J. L., and Ebert, E. E.: Sea ice-albedo climate feedback
mechanism, J. Climate, 8, 240–247, 1995. a
Deser, C. and Teng, H.: Evolution of Arctic sea ice concentration trends and
the role of atmospheric circulation forcing, 1979–2007, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 35, L02504, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032023, 2008. a, b, c
Diamond, R. and Guarino, M. V.: HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL lig127k and piControl processed outputs, [data set], available at: http://gws-access.jasmin.ac.uk/public/pmip4/HADGEM3_LIG_PI/PUBLIC_DATA/ last access: 20 September 2021. a
Eicken, H., Grenfell, T., Perovich, D., Richter-Menge, J., and Frey, K.:
Hydraulic controls of summer Arctic pack ice albedo, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 109, C08007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JC001989, 2004. a, b, c
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fischer, H., Meissner, K. J., Mix, A. C., Abram, N. J., Austermann, J., Brovkin, V., Capron, E., Colombaroli, D., Daniau, A. L., Dyez, K. A., Felis, T., Finkelstein, S. A., Jaccard, S. L., McClymont, E. L., Rovere, A., Sutter, J., Wolff, E. W., Affolter, S., Bakker, P., Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A., Barbante, C., Caley, T., Carlson, A. E., Churakova, O., Cortese, G., Cumming, B. F., Davis, B. A. S., De Vernal, A., Emile-Geay, J., Fritz, S. C., Gierz, P., Gottschalk, J., Holloway, M. D., Joos, F., Kucera, M., Loutre, M. F., Lunt, D. J., Marcisz, K., Marlon, J. R., Martinez, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Raible, C. C., Risebrobakken, B., Sánchez Goñi, M. F., Saleem Arrigo, J., Sarnthein, M., Sjolte, J., and Valdes, P. J.:
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 C anthropogenic warming and
beyond, Nat. Geosci., 11, 474–485, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0, 2018. a
Flocco, D., Feltham, D. L., and Turner, A. K.: Incorporation of a physically
based melt pond scheme into the sea ice component of a climate model, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 115, C08012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005568, 2010. a
Flocco, D., Schroeder, D., Feltham, D. L., and Hunke, E. C.: Impact of melt
ponds on Arctic sea ice simulations from 1990 to 2007, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 117, C09032, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008195, 2012. a, b, c
Guarino, M.-V., Sime, L. C., Schroeder, D., Lister, G. M. S., and Hatcher, R.: Machine dependence and reproducibility for coupled climate simulations: the HadGEM3-GC3.1 CMIP Preindustrial simulation, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 139–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-139-2020, 2020a. a
Guarino, M.-V., Sime, L. C., Schröeder, D., Malmierca-Vallet, I., Rosenblum, E., Ringer, M., Ridley, J., Feltham, D., Bitz, C., Steig, E. J., Wolff, E., Stroeve, J., and Sellar, A.: Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future
loss, Nature Climate Change, 1–5, 2020b. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x
Gupta, S. K., Darnell, W. L., and Wilber, A. C.: A parameterization for
longwave surface radiation from satellite data: Recent improvements, J.
Appl. Meteorol., 31, 1361–1367, 1992. a
Holland, M. M., Bitz, C. M., and Tremblay, B.: Future abrupt reductions in the
summer Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028024, 2006. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working
Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Tech. Rep. 5, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,
https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2013. a
Kageyama, M., Sime, L. C., Sicard, M., Guarino, M.-V., de Vernal, A., Stein, R., Schroeder, D., Malmierca-Vallet, I., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bitz, C., Braconnot, P., Brady, E. C., Cao, J., Chamberlain, M. A., Feltham, D., Guo, C., LeGrande, A. N., Lohmann, G., Meissner, K. J., Menviel, L., Morozova, P., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., O'ishi, R., Ramos Buarque, S., Salas y Melia, D., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Stroeve, J., Shi, X., Sun, B., Tomas, R. A., Volodin, E., Yeung, N. K. H., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Z., Zheng, W., and Ziehn, T.: A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences, Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m
Kantha, L. H. and Clayson, C. A.: Numerical Models of Oceans and Oceanic Processes, vol. 66, Academic Press, San Diego, 2000. a
Kay, J. E. and Gettelman, A.: Cloud influence on and response to seasonal
Arctic sea ice loss, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D18204,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD011773, 2009. a
Kuhlbrodt, T., Jones, C. G., Sellar, A., Storkey, D., Blockley, E., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Graham, T., Ridley, J., Blaker, A., Calvert, D., Copsey, D., Ellis, R., Hewitt, H., Hyder, P., Ineson, S., Mulcahy, J., Siahaan, A., and Walton, J.: The Low-Resolution
Version of HadGEM3 GC3. 1: Development and Evaluation for Global Climate,
J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 2865–2888, 2018. a
Kwok, R., Cunningham, G., Wensnahan, M., Rigor, I., Zwally, H., and Yi, D.:
Thinning and volume loss of the Arctic Ocean sea ice cover: 2003–2008,
J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 114, C07005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005312, 2009. a, b
Lunt, D. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bakker, P., Berger, A., Braconnot, P., Charbit, S., Fischer, N., Herold, N., Jungclaus, J. H., Khon, V. C., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Langebroek, P. M., Lohmann, G., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Park, W., Pfeiffer, M., Phipps, S. J., Prange, M., Rachmayani, R., Renssen, H., Rosenbloom, N., Schneider, B., Stone, E. J., Takahashi, K., Wei, W., Yin, Q., and Zhang, Z. S.: A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures, Clim. Past, 9, 699–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-699-2013, 2013. a
Lüthje, M., Feltham, D., Taylor, P., and Worster, M.: Modeling the
summertime evolution of sea-ice melt ponds, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 111, C02001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JC002818, 2006. a
Madec, G. and NEMO System Team: NEMO ocean engine, Scientific Notes of Climate Modelling Center, 27, ISSN 1288-1619, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, 2015. a
Maslanik, J., Drobot, S., Fowler, C., Emery, W., and Barry, R.: On the Arctic
climate paradox and the continuing role of atmospheric circulation in
affecting sea ice conditions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028269, 2007. a
Maykut, G. A. and Perovich, D. K.: The role of shortwave radiation in the
summer decay of a sea ice cover, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 92,
7032–7044, 1987. a
Menary, M. B., Kuhlbrodt, T., Ridley, J., Andrews, M. B., Dimdore-Miles, O. B., Deshayes, J., Eade, R., Gray, L., Ineson, S., Mignot, J., Roberts, C. D., Robson, J., Wood, R. A., and Xavier, P.:
Preindustrial Control Simulations With HadGEM3-GC3. 1 for CMIP6, J.
Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 3049–3075, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001495, 2018. a, b
Niemelä, S., Räisänen, P., and Savijärvi, H.: Comparison of
surface radiative flux parameterizations: Part I: Longwave radiation,
Atmos. Res., 58, 1–18, 2001. a
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Rosenbloom, N., Stone, E. J., McKay, N. P., Lunt, D. J.,
Brady, E. C., and Overpeck, J. T.: How warm was the last interglacial? New
model–data comparisons, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 371, 20130097, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0097, 2013. a, b, c
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Lunt, D. J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Albani, S., Bartlein, P. J., Capron, E., Carlson, A. E., Dutton, A., Fischer, H., Goelzer, H., Govin, A., Haywood, A., Joos, F., LeGrande, A. N., Lipscomb, W. H., Lohmann, G., Mahowald, N., Nehrbass-Ahles, C., Pausata, F. S. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Phipps, S. J., Renssen, H., and Zhang, Q.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 2: Two interglacials, scientific objective and experimental design for Holocene and Last Interglacial simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3979–4003, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3979-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Zhao, A., Brierley, C. M., Axford, Y., Capron, E., Govin, A., Hoffman, J. S., Isaacs, E., Kageyama, M., Scussolini, P., Tzedakis, P. C., Williams, C. J. R., Wolff, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Braconnot, P., Ramos Buarque, S., Cao, J., de Vernal, A., Guarino, M. V., Guo, C., LeGrande, A. N., Lohmann, G., Meissner, K. J., Menviel, L., Morozova, P. A., Nisancioglu, K. H., O'ishi, R., Salas y Mélia, D., Shi, X., Sicard, M., Sime, L., Stepanek, C., Tomas, R., Volodin, E., Yeung, N. K. H., Zhang, Q., Zhang, Z., and Zheng, W.: Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4), Clim. Past, 17, 63–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021, 2021. a, b
Parkinson, C. L. and Comiso, J. C.: On the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice
cover: Combined impact of preconditioning and an August storm, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 40, 1356–1361, 2013. a
Perovich, D., Grenfell, T., Light, B., and Hobbs, P.: Seasonal evolution of the
albedo of multiyear Arctic sea ice, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans,
107, 8044, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000438, 2002a. a, b, c
Perovich, D., Tucker III, W., and Ligett, K.: Aerial observations of the
evolution of ice surface conditions during summer, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 107, 8048, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000449, 2002b. a
Perovich, D. K. and Tucker, W. B.: Arctic sea-ice conditions and the
distribution of solar radiation during summer, Ann. Glaciol., 25,
445–450, 1997. a
Perovich, D. K., Light, B., Eicken, H., Jones, K. F., Runciman, K., and Nghiem,
S. V.: Increasing solar heating of the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas,
1979–2005: Attribution and role in the ice-albedo feedback, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 34, L19505, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031480, 2007. a
Ridley, J., Menary, M., Kuhlbrodt, T., Andrews, M., and Andrews, T.: MOHC
HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set]
https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.419, 2018a. a
Ridley, J. K., Blockley, E. W., Keen, A. B., Rae, J. G. L., West, A. E., and Schroeder, D.: The sea ice model component of HadGEM3-GC3.1, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 713–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-713-2018, 2018b. a, b, c
Scott, F. and Feltham, D.: A model of the three-dimensional evolution of Arctic
melt ponds on first-year and multiyear sea ice, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 115, C12064, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006156, 2010. a
Serreze, M. C. and Barry, R. G.: Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification:
A research synthesis, Global and planetary change, 77, 85–96, 2011. a
Sime, L., Wolff, E., Oliver, K., and Tindall, J.: Evidence for warmer
interglacials in East Antarctic ice cores, Nature, 462, 342–345, 2009. a
Skyllingstad, E. D., Paulson, C. A., and Perovich, D. K.: Simulation of melt
pond evolution on level ice, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 114, C12019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005363,
2009. a
Smith, D. M., Screen, J. A., Deser, C., Cohen, J., Fyfe, J. C., García-Serrano, J., Jung, T., Kattsov, V., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Peings, Y., Sigmond, M., Ukita, J., Yoon, J.-H., and Zhang, X.: The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1139–1164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019, 2019. a
Steele, M., Zhang, J., and Ermold, W.: Mechanisms of summertime upper Arctic
Ocean warming and the effect on sea ice melt, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 115, C11004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005849, 2010. a
Stuecker, M. F., Bitz, C. M., Armour, K. C., Proistosescu, C., Kang, S. M., Xie, S.-P., Kim, D., McGregor, S., Zhang, W., Zhao, S., Cai, W., Dong, Y., and Jin, F.: Polar
amplification dominated by local forcing and feedbacks, Nat. Clim.
Change, 8, 1076–1081, 2018. a
Taylor, P. and Feltham, D.: A model of melt pond evolution on sea ice, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 109, C12007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JC002361, 2004. a
Untersteiner, N.: On the mass and heat budget of Arctic sea ice, Arch. Meteor. Geophy. A, 12, 151–182, 1961. a
Uttal, T., Curry, J. A., McPhee, M. G., Perovich, D. K., Moritz, R. E., Maslanik, J. A., Guest, P. S., Stern, H. L., Moore, J. A., Turenne, R., Heiberg, A., Serreze, M. C., Wylie, D. P., Persson, O. G., Paulson, C. A., Halle, C., Morison, J. H., Wheeler, P. A., Makshtas, A., Welch, H., Shupe, M. D., Intrieri, J. M., Stamnes, K., Lindsey, R. W., Pinkel, R., Scott Pegau, W., Stanton, T. P., and Grenfeld, T. C.: Surface heat budget of the Arctic Ocean, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 83, 255–276, 2002. a
Walters, D., Boutle, I., Brooks, M., Melvin, T., Stratton, R., Vosper, S., Wells, H., Williams, K., Wood, N., Allen, T., Bushell, A., Copsey, D., Earnshaw, P., Edwards, J., Gross, M., Hardiman, S., Harris, C., Heming, J., Klingaman, N., Levine, R., Manners, J., Martin, G., Milton, S., Mittermaier, M., Morcrette, C., Riddick, T., Roberts, M., Sanchez, C., Selwood, P., Stirling, A., Smith, C., Suri, D., Tennant, W., Vidale, P. L., Wilkinson, J., Willett, M., Woolnough, S., and Xavier, P.: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0/6.1 and JULES Global Land 6.0/6.1 configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1487–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, 2017. a, b
Wang, J., Zhang, J., Watanabe, E., Ikeda, M., Mizobata, K., Walsh, J. E., Bai,
X., and Wu, B.: Is the Dipole Anomaly a major driver to record lows in Arctic
summer sea ice extent?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036706, 2009. a, b, c
West, A. E., McLaren, A. J., Hewitt, H. T., and Best, M. J.: The location of the thermodynamic atmosphere–ice interface in fully coupled models – a case study using JULES and CICE, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1125–1141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1125-2016, 2016. a
Williams, C. J. R., Guarino, M.-V., Capron, E., Malmierca-Vallet, I., Singarayer, J. S., Sime, L. C., Lunt, D. J., and Valdes, P. J.: CMIP6/PMIP4 simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial using HadGEM3: comparison to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions and proxy data, Clim. Past, 16, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1429-2020, 2020. a
Williams, K., Copsey, D., Blockley, E., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Calvert, D., Comer, R., Davis, P., Graham, T., Hewitt, H., Hill, R., Hyder, P., Ineson, S., Johns, T. C., Keen, A. B., Lee, R. W., Megann, A., Milton, S. F., Rae, J. G. L., Roberts, M. J., Scaife, A. A., Schlemann, R., Storkey, D., Thorpe, L., Watterson, I. G., Walters, D. N., West, A., Wood, R. A., Woollings, T., and Xavier, P. K.: The Met Office
global coupled model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3. 0 and GC3. 1) configurations, J.
Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 357–380, 2018. a, b
Short summary
The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) is the first coupled climate model to simulate an ice-free summer Arctic during the Last Interglacial (LIG), 127 000 years ago, and yields accurate Arctic surface temperatures. We investigate the causes and impacts of this extreme simulated ice loss and, in particular, the role of melt ponds.
The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) is the first coupled climate...
